How Energized are the Dems?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Despite having a record turnout during the NH primary, Democratic turnout in the 20 states holding primaries through Super Tuesday (the time when Kerry locked up the nomination) was only 11.4% of eligible voters.  That is only slightly better than the 9% during Clinton's uncontested 1996 primaries.

Meanwhile, Bush's GOTV effort, hugely successful in 2002, keeps motoring along.

[opebo]

Despite having a record turnout during the NH primary, Democratic turnout in the 20 states holding primaries through Super Tuesday (the time when Kerry locked up the nomination) was only 11.4% of eligible voters.  That is only slightly better than the 9% during Clinton's uncontested 1996 primaries.

Meanwhile, Bush's GOTV effort, hugely successful in 2002, keeps motoring along.

Kerry is not going to inspire a massive energized turnout.

[Wakie]

Did you really expect big turnouts for an election with one candidate?  Come on.

[Ben.]

Despite having a record turnout during the NH primary, Democratic turnout in the 20 states holding primaries through Super Tuesday (the time when Kerry locked up the nomination) was only 11.4% of eligible voters.  That is only slightly better than the 9% during Clinton's uncontested 1996 primaries.

Meanwhile, Bush's GOTV effort, hugely successful in 2002, keeps motoring along.

Kerry is not going to inspire a massive energized turnout.

I'm tired and so I'm not coming out with a lot a reasoning but I would expect Dem turnout to be very high in November, much as GOP turnout will be very high...both party's are appealing to their base the lack of DNC aggression in 2000 and 2002 is no longer there and on the topic of the midterms the Democrats have learnt to an extent to address the issue of national security...

But no a high Dem and Rep turnout in November is very likely IMHO...there are no Dems (and I mean non save Koch and Miller) who would stay home or vote for Bush in November, there is too much dem antipathy towards Bush for that to happen...particularly amongst minority groups (Except Hispanics)...so a high Dem turnout....    

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Did you really expect big turnouts for an election with one candidate?  Come on.

The 11% was for all the states up to Super Tuesday, the time period when it was NOT a one man race.

[Ben.]

Did you really expect big turnouts for an election with one candidate?  Come on.

The 11% was for all the states up to Super Tuesday, the time period when it was NOT a one man race.

Where are you getting your figures for turnout from....can you give me a link?

[angus]

Despite having a record turnout during the NH primary, Democratic turnout in the 20 states holding primaries through Super Tuesday (the time when Kerry locked up the nomination) was only 11.4% of eligible voters.  That is only slightly better than the 9% during Clinton's uncontested 1996 primaries.

Meanwhile, Bush's GOTV effort, hugely successful in 2002, keeps motoring along.

Kerry is not going to inspire a massive energized turnout.

But he will.  For Bush.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Where are you getting your figures for turnout from....can you give me a link?

It was from a long-time Democratic source.  I'm hunting for the link.

[Ben.]

Where are you getting your figures for turnout from....can you give me a link?

It was from a long-time Democratic source.  I'm hunting for the link.

Thanks...do post it when you find it...no doubt if your correct I'll find an argument to disprove your analysis....well at least i hope so...

but seriously I’m sure turnout was higher that 11% of the total voting population...SC was low from what I remember and Iowa and NH where very very high but after that you can see why it tailed off after IA and NH it was to all intents and purposes over and most independents and Dem felt that IMHO...but that’s just my take on it...      

[Beet]

This was one of the least competitive primary races in a long time for a party out of power. Only two candidates who are actually in the race other than Kerry won primaries. The 2000 Republican primary couldn't really be considered a competitive one, but even that one was more competitive than this one.

You know why, maybe its because I was hoping for a competitive race and God made it uncompetitive just to spite me.

[Wakie]

Did you really expect big turnouts for an election with one candidate?  Come on.

The 11% was for all the states up to Super Tuesday, the time period when it was NOT a one man race.

On March 2nd (aka Super Tuesday) the only guys left were Kerry, Edwards, Kucinich, & Sharpton.  Sharpton & Kucinich were never serious contenders.  And at that point the odds of an Edwards victory were slim and none.

[Beet]

After Feb. 3 the polls were showing Kerry sky-high across the board. It was over.

[zachman]

I don't particularly remember any Dem. cnadidate except Kerry who got positive press after NH and before 2/3. How did Super Tuesday turnout compare to the 2000 dem. race (if you can even call it that)?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Despite rah-rah news reports that an aroused and angry Democratic voter base was turning out in droves to choose their party's presidential nominee, Democratic turnout was, in the aggregate, the third-lowest on record.
    This is the conclusion of a little-noticed report by Curtis Gans, the voter turnout specialist who runs the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. Few know more about turnout rates than Mr. Gans, an old-line Democrat, and the preliminary primary data have left him underwhelmed.
    "Contrary to some published reports, and with the singular exception of the New Hampshire Democratic primary, which set a new record high, Democratic turnout in the party's presidential primaries through Super Tuesday (when John Kerry all but locked up the nomination) was generally low," he says.

http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20040321-101412-7930r.htm

[classical liberal]

Kerry is not going to inspire a massive energized turnout.

Bush will do that for Kerry.  The Anybody But Bush makes up like 45% of the voting population.  Kerry's support will probably only include about 25-35% of the total vote; the rest is ABB.

[Nym90]

I wouldn't exactly call the Washington Times a long time Democratic source....unless the columnist that wrote this is usually liberal, I don't know anything about him.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Kerry is not going to inspire a massive energized turnout.

Bush will do that for Kerry.  The Anybody But Bush makes up like 45% of the voting population.  Kerry's support will probably only include about 25-35% of the total vote; the rest is ABB.

I think you're a bit high on the 25-35%.  What exactly does Kerry have going for him?  That he sat in the Senate for years?  I *guess* if you're a pacifist-type, you'd like the old Vets-Against-the-War leader, but if you're in that group, you're already part of ABB.  I predict that Kerry's support will come from:

ABB: 90%
Dem Party Loyalists (not already ABB): 5%
Mass. Home State Loyalists: 3%
Excited about Kerry the Candidate: 2%

OK, maybe I'm exaggerating things here, but Kerry is dull, dull, DULL.  Red avatars: tell me some reason why I should be excited by Kerry.  Assume that I'm left-leaning.  What is so great about this man, other than the presence of a "D" next to his name, and the lack of a "W" inside of it?

[angus]

Yeah, an exaggeration alright.  The Massachusetts homestate loyalist contingent is probably more like 2 percent.  The rest looks reasonable.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I wouldn't exactly call the Washington Times a long time Democratic source....unless the columnist that wrote this is usually liberal, I don't know anything about him.

Mr President, learn to read.  

[Gustaf]

Kerry is not going to inspire a massive energized turnout.

Bush will do that for Kerry.  The Anybody But Bush makes up like 45% of the voting population.  Kerry's support will probably only include about 25-35% of the total vote; the rest is ABB.

I think you're a bit high on the 25-35%.  What exactly does Kerry have going for him?  That he sat in the Senate for years?  I *guess* if you're a pacifist-type, you'd like the old Vets-Against-the-War leader, but if you're in that group, you're already part of ABB.  I predict that Kerry's support will come from:

ABB: 90%
Dem Party Loyalists (not already ABB): 5%
Mass. Home State Loyalists: 3%
Excited about Kerry the Candidate: 2%

OK, maybe I'm exaggerating things here, but Kerry is dull, dull, DULL.  Red avatars: tell me some reason why I should be excited by Kerry.  Assume that I'm left-leaning.  What is so great about this man, other than the presence of a "D" next to his name, and the lack of a "W" inside of it?

I think few forum Dems are 'excited' about Kerry. I sure ain't...