Could Romney win any New England states?

[Badger]

Maybe New Hampshire if he wins by a smallish margin nationwide. ME-2 is on the table if its a 7-8 point national win. Otherwise no.

[feeblepizza]

New Hampshire is the only one I can forsee. I would say Pennsylvania, but I don't know whether to classify it as in New Englad or the Rust Belt.

[Brittain33]

New Hampshire is the only one I can forsee. I would say Pennsylvania, but I don't know whether to classify it as in New Englad or the Rust Belt.

New England is rigidly defined as the six states east of New York.

[Napoleon]

What about CT?

Bush came within striking distance of it in '04...

A ten-point loss is "striking distance"? By that argument Kerry came within striking distance of winning Arizona.

Considering that Kerry was within ten points while losing by 2.5 nationwide, and Bush was only within ten while winning by 2.5 nationwide, I'd argue that Bush's CT performance was worse than Kerry's AZ performance.

Not that it really matters, of course.

[Dan the Roman]

Given Romney's profile, CT will fall long before ME. CT has an unpopular Democratic governor and an upscale electorate. The GOP electorate in Maine is very downscale. And the swing voters are working-class Franco-Americans, who Romney has zero appeal to.

New Hampshire is hard to measure since we have not had any elections there since 2010. I suspect the big Gay Marriage fight coming next spring will have as big an impact as any national environment.

[Badger]

Given Romney's profile, CT will fall long before ME. CT has an unpopular Democratic governor and an upscale electorate. The GOP electorate in Maine is very downscale. And the swing voters are working-class Franco-Americans, who Romney has zero appeal to.

New Hampshire is hard to measure since we have not had any elections there since 2010. I suspect the big Gay Marriage fight coming next spring will have as big an impact as any national environment.

CT goes GOP before ME? Not even with Jodi Rell as running mate. The CT electorate is hardly all "upscale" (see Hartford, New Haven, Bridgeport, etc.), and much of the upscale areas have largely abandoned an increasingly socially conservative GOP during the last 2 decades.

Until I see polls showing that an unpopular Democratic governor is actually dragging down Obama's numbers there, I will remain highly skeptical of any potential impact.

[tpfkaw]

He could theoretically win all of them, obviously.  In a 50-50 election he'd win New Hampshire.

[Badger]

He could theoretically win all of them, obviously.  In a 50-50 election he'd win New Hampshire.

Probably not even then. NH been voted about +1-2 Dem compared to national PVI, and has been voting at least comparable to national PVI since then (2000 results being skewed by a strong Nader vote, back when such a vote was still a leftist protest vote). No politician had a better connection with the Granite State than McCain, and even then he ran under national PVI. If McCain couldn't match that, Romney probably can't either.

[Napoleon]

Given Romney's profile, CT will fall long before ME. CT has an unpopular Democratic governor and an upscale electorate. The GOP electorate in Maine is very downscale. And the swing voters are working-class Franco-Americans, who Romney has zero appeal to.

New Hampshire is hard to measure since we have not had any elections there since 2010. I suspect the big Gay Marriage fight coming next spring will have as big an impact as any national environment.

Malloy is unpopular because his budget proposal enraged many liberals, myself included. The upscale electorate you speak of is almost wholly supportive of Obama, the GOP will do much better with the more socially conservative working class voters and the urban areas will turn out huge numbers like always, most of Foley's vote loss compared to Rell 2006 was in places like Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport. You also ignore that LePage is even less popular than Malloy, not that such a thing is a significant factor in the presidential race. Maine is certainly more Republican than Connecticut and has proven more willing to vote for Republicans than Connecticut especially federal races.

I also disagree that the franco-americans would reject Romney. He does speak French and they have a tough economic situation there that can't help Obama.