Texas House Redistricting

[jimrtex]

Apportionment of Texas House.

The ideal population for each of 150 districts is 167,637.  Whole numbers on the map represent 1/1000 of the ideal population or about 168 persons.  Mixed fractions, represent the number of representatives plus a surplus expressed as 1/1000ths of a representative (eg Harris County, with 24.413 is entitled to 24 representatives as 413/1000 of a 25th).

Click To Texasize

[freepcrusher]

This is what I can see the DFW Maps look like:



District 100: Basically East Dallas Around Fair Park Cotton Bowl Area. 44.4% Hispanic, 41.3% Black, 11.9% White, 1.3% Asian, .9% Other, .2% Native. This is Eric Johnson's district. Bill White probably got 80+% here.

District 101. Basically a combination of the old 102nd district and the current 112th. Perry got in the mid 50s here i'm guessing. Stefani Carter would face Angie Chen in the primary here. Both are minority republican women (Carter Black and Chen Asian) and both are fairly new (Carter freshman, Chen sophomore). But whoever would win the primary would likely win this district, despite being a diverse district. Racial stats are 38.3 percent white, 32.5 percent hispanic, 18 percent black, 9.1 percent asian, 1.8 percent other, and .3 percent native

District 102. Basically a combination of the old 103rd and old 104th districts. This is a heavily hispanic district (77.5%) and Bill White probably got 65-70 percent here. I'm guessing Rafael Anchia will represent this district and Roberto Alonzo, who also lives here, would then run in the new hispanic vra district.

District 103. Similar to the old 105th district based in North Irving.  This is now a plurality hispanic district. 38.7% Hispanic, 29.7% White, 16.4% Asian, 12.9% Black, 2% Other, .3% Native. Linda Harper Brown is the incumbent here. She has had a lot of close races in the year's she has been here, and I don't expect that to stop. Especially when she is a hardliner against immigration.

District 104. This basically takes in Grand Prairie and South Irving. This is now just barely hispanic majority. Freshman Republican Rodney Anderson represents this district. This is a fairly swing district and I see Anderson having close races in this district for years to come.

District 105. Similar to the old 107th district. This takes in some wealthy areas around white rock lake. This is plurality white (43.5%). Other races include Hispanics (38.5%), Black (13.7%), Asian (2.6%), 1.3% Other, .3% Native. This is freshman republican Kenneth Sheets district. I'm guessing Rick Perry narrowly carried this district.

District 106. More or less the old 108th district. This is one of the few white majority districts in Dallas (64.6% White). It takes in the uber-republican Park Cities but is balanced out by some of the gayborhoods near downtown Dallas. Perry probably won this district, but slightly below his statewide average. This is Dan Branch's district.

District 107. This takes in the southern part of the county. Blacks make up 61.4% of the population here. This is similar to the old 109th district. This would be Helen Gidding's district and she is safe here as Bill White probably cracked 80 percent in this district.

District 108. This is easily the most democratic district in Texas. Bill White may have gotten 85 percent here. Although this district is plurality hispanic, blacks probably have more voter clout as the hispanics probably aren't old enough to vote or aren't naturalized. Racial stats is 44% Hispanic, 41.1% Black, 13.5% White, .8% Other, .3% Native, .2% Asian. This is basically the old 110th district and would be represented by Barbara Malloy Caraway.

[Brittain33]

Have you seen the Solomons map? There is a ridiculous earmuffs district with a connector running between Austin and Round Rock that is a sight to be seen.

[freepcrusher]

District 109. This is similar to the old 111th and basically takes in Duncanville. This is plurality Hispanic at 46.9%. Blacks make up 36.7% Whites 13.7%, Asians 1.6%, Other .9%, Other .2%. Yvonne Davis would represent this district. She was ranked by Texas Monthly to have the most liberal voting record in the house. That doesn't matter here as White got 75-80 percent here most likely.

District 110. Takes in parts of the old 110th and parts of the old 113th. This would be Joe Driver's district. Rick Perry probably got close to his statewide average here. This is plurality white (43.2%). Hispanics make up 30.9%, Blacks 13%, Asians 10.8%, Other 1.7%, Native .4%. Joe Driver has had ethics issues in the past, but he should be OK here for now.

District 111. This takes in parts of the old 113th and most of the old 101st. This is Cindy Burkett's district. Racial stats are 41.8% White, 29.3% Hispanic, 21.8% Black, 4.8% Asian, 1.8% Other, .4% Native. I'm not sure if Perry or White won this district, but whoever did won it by less than 5 points. I'm guessing this is a marginal district that Burkett will have to work hard to defend.

District 112. This is basically the far north Dallas district. This is 55.3% White. Will Hartnett represents this district. He is the most senior member from Dallas County having served since 1991. North Dallas has always been republican and this district is no different. Perry probably got close to his statewide average here.

District 113. Basically the northwest corner of Dallas County. This is also the most republican part of the county, despite being only plurality white. Racial stats are: 47.7% White, 35.5% Hispanic, 8.2% Asian, 6.7% Black, 1.6% Other, .3% Native. Jim Jackson is the representative here. He is in his early 70s, so he may retire soon. Fun Fact: Kenny Marchant represented much of this area in the Texas Assembly during the 90s.

Now for the collin county seats

District 66. Basically the same although it takes in some of the areas north of the tollway. This is Van Taylor's district. 62.3% White. I'm guessing Perry got in the low 60s here.

District 67. This is the oldest part of Plano and least republican part of Collin County. It is still more republican than most of the Dallas County districts however. Perry probably got in the mid to high 50s here. This is Jerry Madden's district. 56.8% White.

District 68. Basically the old 70th district with nearly half the district excised out due to high population growth. This is centered around McKinney and Frisco. 65.7% White. Ken Paxton, who tried running for speaker, represents this district. Perry probably got in the mid 60s here.

District 69. Due to high population in both districts, it takes in part of the old 89th and parts of the old 70th district. This is a 69.5 percent white district. It basically takes in the NE part of the county. Perry got in the high 60s here, so this district would almost undoubtedly go to a republican

District 70. This is basically the old 89th with the areas to the north excised off. This is a 66.2% White district. Jodie Laubenberg would represent this district. Perry probably got in the low 70s here.

[krazen1211]

Why does Bexar county have so many Democratic Reps?

7-3 seems to be grossly imbalanced for a 50/50 county. By contrast, Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant seem pretty well split between the parties, and of course the GOP has the rest of the map.

[freepcrusher]

Why does Bexar county have so many Democratic Reps?

The lines were drawn back when democrats still had the majority. Republicans in the county are easy to concentrate, mainly in the NE part of the county.

[edtorres04]

That's not true.  The current lines were drawn by the state reapportionment board, which was republican controlled (basically drawn by Dewhurst).

[jimrtex]

This is my proposed apportionment.

The numbers represents the deviation (in percent) from the ideal population.  For counties with multiple representatives it is assumed that the districts will all have the same deviation.

91 districts are within 1% of the ideal, 138 within 2%, and 145 within 3%.  Mean absolute deviation is 0.91%.

The 5 outliers (over 3%) are:

Grayson-Cooke: -4.96% (locked in north of DFW area).

Henderson-Navarro-Hill: -3.75% (up against edge of forced districts to north)

Brazoria-Matagorda: +4.35% (forced pair edge of metro)

Angelina-Nacogdoches-Trinity-San Augustine: +4.24% (least worst in East Texas)

Click To Texasize

[jimrtex]

Why does Bexar county have so many Democratic Reps?

7-3 seems to be grossly imbalanced for a 50/50 county. By contrast, Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant seem pretty well split between the parties, and of course the GOP has the rest of the map.

The USDOJ made them create as many Hispanic opportunity districts as possible.  If you look at the map all the Hispanic majority districts start out south and central San Antonio.  Those that pick up mixed areas go straight north, while the others swing around the outside of the city, and then nibble off some more Anglo areas further north.  Then you have the two packed Anglo districts.  The one to the northeast comes down into areas like Alamo Heights.  The purple district is the black district, except there aren't enough concentrated blacks in San Antonio for a district.  So you include some Anglo voters, so that the Hispanic voters won't outvote the black voters in the Democratic primary.

The map was drawn by the Legislative Redistricting Board in 2001, which consisted of the AG John Cornyn, State Comptroller Carole of the Many Names, Land Commissioner David Dewhurst, Lt.Governor Bill Ratliff (elected by senators after Rick Perry became governor, after George W Bush became president), and House Speaker Pete Laney.

[jimrtex]

Deviation for jimrtex, Maldef, and Rep.Solomon plans.

[krazen1211]

Data on Texas House redistricting.

http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/texas-house-redistricting-proposal-153/?&cbResetParam=1


105 solid districts, plus the one in Galveston where they could have redistricted out the Democrat but didn't.


Bexar of course is still bad for the GOP but what can you do.

[freepcrusher]

105 solid districts, plus the one in Galveston where they could have redistricted out the Democrat but didn't.

What makes you think they hold on to all of their seats and then gain some. The republicans for the most part are pretty maxed out and have no where else to gain. They hold a lot of marginal seats in urban areas.

[rundontwalk]

This is my proposed apportionment.

I like your proposed district for Erath County and the surrounding area. We're currently in a district (District 31 - TX) that runs from here to northern Austin, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense since Austin is an easy 3 hours from here and I'm sure we could find population centers closer to home.

[krazen1211]

105 solid districts, plus the one in Galveston where they could have redistricted out the Democrat but didn't.

What makes you think they hold on to all of their seats and then gain some. The republicans for the most part are pretty maxed out and have no where else to gain. They hold a lot of marginal seats in urban areas.

Well, they took almost all their seats and added Republicans. The few Republicans that are paired are compensated by the vacant 55-60% R seats open.

Per the article, the new map is superior to the existing map.

[Brittain33]

I feel like something's missing here. EVERYONE has been saying that the Texas reps couldn't hold their numbers at 99 because of relative decline in the rural areas where they rolled up big numbers in the last election. What is this map doing that no one else has figured out?

105 solid districts, plus the one in Galveston where they could have redistricted out the Democrat but didn't.

What makes you think they hold on to all of their seats and then gain some. The republicans for the most part are pretty maxed out and have no where else to gain. They hold a lot of marginal seats in urban areas.

Well, they took almost all their seats and added Republicans. The few Republicans that are paired are compensated by the vacant 55-60% R seats open.

Per the article, the new map is superior to the existing map.

[Dgov]

Well, for starters I'm pretty sure the current map was drawn by the courts, so Republicans are basically just picking up seats from being able to draw the map for the first time.  Its not like they're improving on an existing gerrymander.

Also, "Safe Seat" is a tricky term here.  I remember being able to draw about 90 60%+ McCain seats a while back, so it might just be that they're trying to cut it a little closer than that.

[krazen1211]

I feel like something's missing here. EVERYONE has been saying that the Texas reps couldn't hold their numbers at 99 because of relative decline in the rural areas where they rolled up big numbers in the last election. What is this map doing that no one else has figured out?

The fastest growing areas in Texas are the Republican suburban areas (Colin, Williamson, Montgomery County, etc). Dallas and Harris shrunk, Bexar/Travis stayed the same. They did a really good job splitting places like Colin County in such a manner that the GOP wins all the seats. So the vanishing Republican districts in the rural areas are being replaced by (slightly less) Republican districts in suburban areas.

Plus, they did a really excellent packing job in Tarrant and Dallas Counties. I think Harris could have been done even better than it was, but they mashed 2 Democrats together in Harris and created a new open Republican seat. In Dallas county it looks like they threw 1 freshman in a slightly Dem district under the bus and gave her all of Mesquite (thus creating a D+20 or so district). In Hidalgo they carved a district for Pena. The GOP probably left a couple seats on the table; VRA constrains Bexar too much.

[jimrtex]

This is my proposed apportionment.

I like your proposed district for Erath County and the surrounding area. We're currently in a district (District 31 - TX) that runs from here to northern Austin, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense since Austin is an easy 3 hours from here and I'm sure we could find population centers closer to home.

You're mixing up the congressional districts with the Texas House districts.

At the congressional district level, Erath is going to just get stuck in a district somewhat arbitrarily.  There is enough population in West Texas for 3 districts, and to get to that population, it may come up just short of Erath or just barely include Erath.  If it includes Erath, then you will be in the same district with Abilene, but it could include Lubbock or Wichita Falls.

If you don't end up in a West Texas district then you are going to be stuck on the edge of a Fort Worth based district or a Central Texas based district.  Now that they have got rid of Chet Edwards and Charlie Stenholm, the districts might make a little more sense.  But whether Erath ends up in a district with Abilene, Temple, Killeen, Waco, or the Fort Worth suburbs will be pretty arbitrary.

In the Texas House, West Texas has population for 13 districts.  By the constitution (and the current population) 9 of these have to be anchored in Potter, Randall, Lubbock(2), Ector, Midland, Tom Green, Taylor and Wichita counties.  The anchor counties have the population for a large portion of the district (at least 2/3), but must include neighboring smaller counties.  Erath is large enough and far enough not to be included in an Abilene (Taylor) district.

The 4 other districts are then drawn in the counties in between.  Two are in far west Texas ant the Panhandle, though they have to come pretty far east.  You then have one district in the Hill Country. and another in the area around Erath (in the district I drew, Brown county has slightly larger population than Erath so that is why it gets the deviation number.

In 2020, West Texas will be down to 12 districts, and the two big districts will be merged, with parts ending up in the anchored districts that surround them.   So Erath will probably end up in the same sort of district it is now, but with different counties.

[jimrtex]

I feel like something's missing here. EVERYONE has been saying that the Texas reps couldn't hold their numbers at 99 because of relative decline in the rural areas where they rolled up big numbers in the last election. What is this map doing that no one else has figured out?

Democrats are advantaged by using a decade-old census data.  Texas grew by 20% during the decade.  So if an area with 6 districts simply held its own population, it would lose a district.

There aren't that many districts in the rural areas of east and west Texas, so even though they are all now Republican, maybe 3 or 4 disappear.  The border area as a whole is growing slower than the state.

The Republicans pick up any new seats in suburban counties.

In the larger counties, the Republican districts are currently over-populated and the Democratic seats underpopulated.  If Harris County kept  25 districts there would be enough surplus in northern and western Harris County to create a new district, and simply eliminate a district in the central area.  You will see a big shift if that was done for one district.

But in other areas, if there is some sort of gradient (demographic and political), you would be removing the most Democratic areas from the inside of the Republican districts, which would then be even further out in the suburbs, and moving them to inner districts.  The new areas would be more Republican than the existing areas.

When the Democrats control redistricting they like to do toothpaste districts that are long squeezed out districts.  These can take in selected areas from Republican districts because you can selectively put the tentacles into areas where there are somewhat more Democrats, and you can also break up core areas of potential Republican challengers.

Take a look at the Illinois legislative district map in the Chicago area and notice that all the senate districts are elongated and also sliced length-wise into two districts.

In 2001, the Democrats had the most representatives in the Texas House, but Republicans in the House represented most Texans.  The Democrats tried to maintain control by underpopulating Democratic districts.  The legislature failed to pass a redistricting plan, so they were drawn by the Legislative Redistricting Board which drew districts that simply reflected population shifts, and the Republicans took control of the House in 1992.

[jimrtex]

Well, for starters I'm pretty sure the current map was drawn by the courts, so Republicans are basically just picking up seats from being able to draw the map for the first time.  Its not like they're improving on an existing gerrymander.

Legislative Redistricting Board.

The current districts are based on 11-year old population data.  There are Republican seats with 150% of the population needed.  You take two of those and can create a 3rd.

If you have a district that is 60-40 Republican, you can move areas that perhaps 50-50 to a Democratic district.  This will make the remaining Republican district even more so, and also move Republicans into the Democratic seat.

Or if you have a district that is 70-30 Republican, you can move a 60-40 area into a district that is 50-50.  Both districts will become more Republican.

You could let computers draw the districts and this would happen, though a human can do it more efficiently. 

[jimrtex]

Click To Texasize



This is the map passed by the Texas House after a 16-hour marathon on Wednesday.

The plan manages to have only 7 incumbent pairings, 6 of them associated with eliminated districts.

6 of the open seats are all suburrban:

Collin, Denton, Tarrant, Williamson, Montgomery, and Fort Bend.  There is an additional open seat running from Waco to Bryan, but it from a re-arrangement of other districts in eastern Texas.

Eliminated districts are Harris, Dallas (2), Golden Triangle, Coastal Bend, Northeast Texas, and West Texas.  There are 6 Republican pairs, and 1 Democratic pair, and since the new seats are all Republican, it is a net gain of 1, plus the elimination of a few marginal districts, and strengthening of others.

[JewCon]

Working on a Texas map with 40 districts (I know too many seats but its just for fun) I'm almost halfway done.