If Obama loses...

[Progressive]

What could the 2016 Democratic field look like? Would it be drastically different than 2012, considering that a Republican would be the incumbent?

[Person Man]

Most people will want

Mark Warner, Jon Tester, Tim Kaine, Brian Schwitzer, John Hickenlooper, Gavin Newsom and maybe even Gabby Giffords (if shes better)  to run. 

If Obama gets beat bad, there might even be a movement to draft a conservative like Bob Casey Jr. or Ben Nelson but 2010 has proven that even conservative (mainly pro-life) democrats are as unpopular and vulernable as center-left and left-wing democrats....or simply that giving up on social issues will not net a greater share of the vote. As many working class pro-lifers (mostly evangelicals and catholics) will vote for a pro-life dem as there will be pro-choice activists who decide to stay home and getted hammered.

Liberals will probably try to draft Anthony Weiner and Dennis Kucinich will probably also try to run again, but I don't think they'll get too far.


Of those, I think none of them will actually run. ...and I don't think Hillary will run or get too far.

At any rate, 2016 is probably open no matter what....and I don't think Obama's loss will change who runs.

[Dancing with Myself]

Depends on how much Obama lost by and how the Republican does in office. If the Republican is successful like Reagan was, the Democrats would nominate someone who has no chance like Dennis Kucinich or another liberal. If the Republican has failures like Jimmy Carter did the Dems will nominate someone more to the center like Mark Warner

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Depends on how much Obama lost by and how the Republican does in office. If the Republican is successful like Reagan was, the Democrats would nominate someone who has no chance like Dennis Kucinich or another liberal. If the Republican has failures like Jimmy Carter did the Dems will nominate someone more to the center like Mark Warner

I wouldn't say Dennis Kucinich, but maybe someone like Russ Feingold would win the nomination.

[Person Man]

Maybe not that....maybe the D version of Bob Dole? A senator or governor from a Blue State that's kinda been around. Maybe Sen. Schumer, Gov. Coumo or Gov. O'Malley?

[anvi]

I wouldn't say Dennis Kucinich, but maybe someone like Russ Feingold would win the nomination.

Good call, Cathcon.  I think Feingold would stand an excellent chance at winning a Democratic nomination.

[Person Man]

I wouldn't say Dennis Kucinich, but maybe someone like Russ Feingold would win the nomination.

Good call, Cathcon.  I think Feingold would stand an excellent chance at winning a Democratic nomination.

He couldn't even win in a blue state against a nutjob for a third senate term. How could he be nominated for President?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I wouldn't say Dennis Kucinich, but maybe someone like Russ Feingold would win the nomination.

Good call, Cathcon.  I think Feingold would stand an excellent chance at winning a Democratic nomination.

He couldn't even win in a blue state against a nutjob for a third senate term. How could he be nominated for President?

I think I've heard the possibility that he could come back in 2012 and win the Senate seat that's open that year. With that, he coudl have his political comeback. He's already trying to organize the progressives with his PAC Progressives United, maybe he'll make a comeback in the political arena and be offered up as a sacrifice candidate for ideological purposes a la Barry Goldwater (though with not as big a loss).

[feeblepizza]

I don't think Gavin Newsom will be able to run in 2016. He can't run for Senate in 2012 because Feinstein is running for reelection. Even if Jerry Brown declines a second term in 2014 and Newsom takes his place, he would have to announce a presidential campaign just a few months after becoming governor.

[Person Man]

I don't think Gavin Newsom will be able to run in 2016. He can't run for Senate in 2012 because Feinstein is running for reelection. Even if Jerry Brown declines a second term in 2014 and Newsom takes his place, he would have to announce a presidential campaign just a few months after becoming governor.

...or he could just pull a Guiliani. That didn't work out for him, but he could probably win if he isn't a dumb ass and simply focuses on Cali or Florida.

I wouldn't say Dennis Kucinich, but maybe someone like Russ Feingold would win the nomination.

Good call, Cathcon.  I think Feingold would stand an excellent chance at winning a Democratic nomination.

He couldn't even win in a blue state against a nutjob for a third senate term. How could he be nominated for President?

I think I've heard the possibility that he could come back in 2012 and win the Senate seat that's open that year. With that, he coudl have his political comeback. He's already trying to organize the progressives with his PAC Progressives United, maybe he'll make a comeback in the political arena and be offered up as a sacrifice candidate for ideological purposes a la Barry Goldwater (though with not as big a loss).

Yes. But for a sacrificial lamb, there needs to be a person who is really loud and can make a splash. We want our lamb to have a little more pizzaz than Mondale. If the left can't have their Reagan, they can have their Goldwater. Mondale and Goldwater lost by more or less the largest margin you would expect a major candidate to lose by... but Goldwater started a movement which inspired future leaders to greatness while Mondale's beating scared progressives into nominating candidates who ran weak campaigns, had weak positions or both.

[anvi]

I wouldn't say Dennis Kucinich, but maybe someone like Russ Feingold would win the nomination.

Good call, Cathcon.  I think Feingold would stand an excellent chance at winning a Democratic nomination.

He couldn't even win in a blue state against a nutjob for a third senate term. How could he be nominated for President?

Different situations and different processes, Avery.  First, he served for ten years in the Wisconsin state legislature and then was the U.S. Senator from the state for three terms.  He only lost in a massive Republican wave year, during a midterm, when Democratic turnout was depressed (3 million voted in Wisconsin in 2008, and in 2010 only 2 million did), in a state that has become progressively more polarized, after the GOP targeted him for defeat by pouring tons of money into that race and on top of it he was challenged by a very wealthy opponent--and even then he didn't lose by much.  Secondly, his recent loss was in a general election in a state against the opposing party.  Feingold is, as far as I can tell, still very popular in the Democratic party; liberals like him because he has taken stringent anti-war and pro-privacy stances, and since his defeat he has formed an organization in support of Wisconsin public employees opposing Walker's initiatives.  Conservative Dems have until recently been ok with him because he is a legislative pragmatist and not exactly a flaming social liberal.  And independents who lean left have been ok with him because he can work on important bipartisan reform legislation like McCain-Feingold.  Comebacks are not formulaic.  Bright, politically skillful and appealing politicians can stage comebacks under the right circumstances.

[Person Man]

Well, I guess if Santorum is trying to stage a political comeback, why can't he? Right? Then again, how far do we expect Santorum to get?

[anvi]

Again, FL, not very comparable situations.  Santorum lost by 18 points, and Feingold by 5.  On top of that, since we're talking about chances for a party's nomination, far more Democrats like Feingold than Republicans do Santorum. 

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

After all, any man that once lost the Presidency, then lost his race for the governorship of his own home state, which voted for him on a national scale in 1952, 1956, and 1960 could never be elected President! Wait...

[courts]

Depends on why he loses and by what margin. If it's a marginal loss probably a Clinton or other generic 'moderate.' If it's a blow out I could see real anarchy in the party and one of the more radical factions becoming relevant sort of like how the 'peace wing' temporarily was back in the '70s and/or total re-alignment.

[Person Man]

Depends on why he loses and by what margin. If it's a marginal loss probably a Clinton or other generic 'moderate.' If it's a blow out I could see real anarchy in the party and one of the more radical factions becoming relevant sort of like how the 'peace wing' temporarily was back in the '70s and/or total re-alignment.

That's another thing that JJ aluded to- the fact that Obama may become so unpopular as to start a total rightward realignment. The issue is that we already just got through a right-wing realignment in the late 20th century. I guess its possible if you think that the Great Depression and the 60s were back-to-back left-wing realignments.