Illinois GOP primary county prediction map(s)

[muon2]

Early reports indicate turnout is lower than usual.

[Keystone Phil]

Early reports indicate turnout is lower than usual.

Yeah but how much can we tell from polls that have only been open for two hours or so?

[muon2]

Early reports indicate turnout is lower than usual.

Yeah but how much can we tell from polls that have only been open for two hours or so?

At most polling places there's a regular number who vote before work. It's not always accurate, but it is one way to get a sense of turnout.

[Keystone Phil]

Early reports indicate turnout is lower than usual.

Yeah but how much can we tell from polls that have only been open for two hours or so?

At most polling places there's a regular number who vote before work. It's not always accurate, but it is one way to get a sense of turnout.

I know but I'm trying to tell myself that the information from that time span isn't enough for me to start getting excited.

[RI]

Romney does best when he drives down turnout, so...

[Keystone Phil]

Romney does best when he drives down turnout, so...

I thought it was the opposite and if turnout is down up around Chicago, that doesn't help Mitt at all...

[RI]

Romney does best when he drives down turnout, so...

I thought it was the opposite and if turnout is down up around Chicago, that doesn't help Mitt at all...

Well, it depends a bit on how turnout is downstate, obviously.

[Torie]

Romney does best when he drives down turnout, so...

I thought it was the opposite and if turnout is down up around Chicago, that doesn't help Mitt at all...

Well, it depends a bit on how turnout is downstate, obviously.

As I noted elsewhere, a low Chicago area turnout is not going to flip any CD's.  Now if it flips the statewide result, that is another matter, which presumably even with relatively low turnout for Mittens in Chicagoland will not happen.

[Bacon King]

Turnout reports I've found so far:

Cook County: "potentially record low turnout"
North Shore of Chicago: "steady in some neighborhoods"
Wilmette (Cook County): "much slower compared to previous primaries"
Park Ridge (Cook County): "low"
Champaign County: "slow and steady"; estimated turnout 35k
university precincts around the state: "nonexistent" (due to spring break)
Bloomington: "steady"; just under 4k voters by noon
Knox County: "average" and "consistent with previous primaries"
Will County: "typical low primary turnout"

[Torie]

Park Ridge, Hillary's home town, is not upper middle class, and very conservative. That will not be a Mittens stronghold as compared to say, Wilmette. I went to a movie there in college, where two men kissed on screen (one of the first movies where that happened), and the audience gasped, booed, and about a third walked out. One guy had a black women as his date, and we got a lot of glares. This was around 1970.  I was reminded yet again, that Chicago back then just wasn't the same kind of place as LA.

[Mr. Morden]

Why would there be record low turnout, when this is actually one of the few times in modern history when the race is still going on the GOP side at the time of the Illinois primary?  Why would fewer people vote now than in, say, 2000, when Bush was the only candidate left in the race by the time Illinois voted?

Are they talking about combined turnout for both parties?  (in which case the measure is rather meaningless)

[muon2]

Why would there be record low turnout, when this is actually one of the few times in modern history when the race is still going on the GOP side at the time of the Illinois primary?  Why would fewer people vote now than in, say, 2000, when Bush was the only candidate left in the race by the time Illinois voted?

Are they talking about combined turnout for both parties?  (in which case the measure is rather meaningless)

This is the one time every 12 years when there are no races for either Governor or US Senate on the ballot. Those races put organizations together for IL far more than presidential campaigns.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Park Ridge, Hillary's home town, is not upper middle class, and very conservative. That will not be a Mittens stronghold as compared to say, Wilmette. I went to a movie there in college, where two men kissed on screen (one of the first movies where that happened), and the audience gasped, booed, and about a third walked out. One guy had a black women as his date, and we got a lot of glares. This was around 1970.  I was reminded yet again, that Chicago back then just wasn't the same kind of place as LA.

The median household income in Park Ridge is over 100,000 dollars and nearly 1/3rd of its residents have a Master's degree. That sounds like Romney country to me, although you're correct that it is very conservative: Obama only won by a margin of five percent.