How will the polls be over the summer?

[timothyinMD]

Look at gasbuddy.com's gas price heat map.   The national average is down, but look where prices are their lowest.. Texas/Okla/Kan/Miss and the whole southeast.. aka states that are already gonna vote Republican!

The states still getting hammered by high prices are the west, south west, upper midwest and northeast

[old timey villain]

States in the NE and west coast always have higher has prices, because there are more fuel taxes. What you said is misleading.

But maybe a better explanation is that gas prices are higher in states Obama is most certain to win!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

contrary to popular belief, people care more about the direction of the economy than the unemployment rate. Carter was defeated in a landslide and Reagan was reelected in a landslide four years later with unemployment at about the same rate - around 7%

Unemployment from 8% to the low sevens is a lot better than 10%, where it was two years ago.

You have a vague grasp of facts.  Your facts about carter and reagan are inaccurate.

How are you judging the economy?  Unemployment rate is one of the best economic indicators of people's happiness with the economy. 

You're hilarious. There's really not much to grasp. In October to 1980 (right before the election) the unemployment rate was 7.5%. In October of 1984 it was 7.4%

And if you know anything about the economy, you should know that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator. It catches up to the trajectory of a recession. The UE rate usually peaks after a recession has ended and it remains high even after the economy begins to grow again.

In 1980, we were in the middle of a mild recession that brought the rate to 7.5, and in 1984 we were in a recovery that brought it down to 7.4 percent after peaking at 10.8 in late 1982.

So if Obama wants to get re-elected, he has to bring the unemployment rate from 10.8 to 7.4?  I don't know if that is possible. 

Saint Reagan did it. And he wasn't just reelected, he won everything except DC and MN. Obama doesn't have to do that.

[milhouse24]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

contrary to popular belief, people care more about the direction of the economy than the unemployment rate. Carter was defeated in a landslide and Reagan was reelected in a landslide four years later with unemployment at about the same rate - around 7%

Unemployment from 8% to the low sevens is a lot better than 10%, where it was two years ago.

You have a vague grasp of facts.  Your facts about carter and reagan are inaccurate.

How are you judging the economy?  Unemployment rate is one of the best economic indicators of people's happiness with the economy. 

You're hilarious. There's really not much to grasp. In October to 1980 (right before the election) the unemployment rate was 7.5%. In October of 1984 it was 7.4%

And if you know anything about the economy, you should know that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator. It catches up to the trajectory of a recession. The UE rate usually peaks after a recession has ended and it remains high even after the economy begins to grow again.

In 1980, we were in the middle of a mild recession that brought the rate to 7.5, and in 1984 we were in a recovery that brought it down to 7.4 percent after peaking at 10.8 in late 1982.

So if Obama wants to get re-elected, he has to bring the unemployment rate from 10.8 to 7.4?  I don't know if that is possible. 

Saint Reagan did it. And he wasn't just reelected, he won everything except DC and MN. Obama doesn't have to do that.

Then, what will the unemployment rate be on Election DAy?
How many states will Obama win? 
Sure he can say momentum is on his side.  But 3 years of unemplyment being in the 9% and 8% is still tough for a lot of Americans to stomach if they know people out of work.