What will become of Bashar al-Assad?
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  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  What will become of Bashar al-Assad?
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Poll
Question: What will become of Bashar al-Assad?
#1
He will put down the uprising and remain President of Syria
 
#2
He will lose control of most of Syria but continue to control a rump state
 
#3
He will be forced to step down from power but remain in Syria
 
#4
He will be forced to step down from power and seek exile elsewhere
 
#5
He will be arrested and tried by the new Syrian government
 
#6
He will be killed
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 17

Author Topic: What will become of Bashar al-Assad?  (Read 482 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« on: July 04, 2012, 05:18:59 PM »

We had such a poll for Gaddafi about a year ago.

In descending order of likeliness:

4
5
6
2
1
3
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2012, 09:07:17 PM »

4
6
5 (which will result in 6)
1
3

2 (impossible unless Turkey steps in to guarantee a rump Alawite state for Assad to govern as part of a peace deal, and that is so improbable as to be not worth worrying about)
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Dereich
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« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2012, 08:54:59 AM »

Honestly? Option 1, as I don't see anyone influential enough in the international community willing to call for intervention and I seriously doubt the FSA can defeat the better trained and equipped Syrian Army on its own. Hoping for 4 though.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2012, 01:14:17 PM »

Honestly? Option 1, as I don't see anyone influential enough in the international community willing to call for intervention and I seriously doubt the FSA can defeat the better trained and equipped Syrian Army on its own. Hoping for 4 though.

Don't forget that one possibility is an internal coup like happened in Egypt.  Probably too late now to succeed as well as Egypt's did in keeping Assad's cronies in power, but I think it is the most likely option for how he departs.
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