Who carried who?

[CARLHAYDEN]

There has been some allegations that Obama swept Democrats into congressional offices.

Results from the House races (see Ballot Access News, December is that House Democrat candidates accumulated 53.9% of the vote (better than Obama).

Hmm.

[Alcon]

Why would the downballot effect work that way?  "I'm voting Democratic congressionally, so I might as well vote it for Prez"?  "I wouldn't vote, but I gotta get the safe congressman another notch, might as well vote Prez too"?  Seems unlikely.

Another possibility would be that the number of Democratic incumbents exceeded Obama's percent (it did), and incumbents tend to perform better.

Either way, I don't think we can determine they "carried" him this way.

[Nym90]

Another possibility is that McCain was more popular than the average Republican. Given that he was perceived as less connected to Bush than the average Republican and that Bush was highly unpopular, this is certainly plausible.

There were definitely clear segments of the population to which Obama appealed less than the average Democrat did, though other segments in which he appealed much more.

But yes, I agree that Obama had few coattails, though he certainly did help increase turnout of several key parts of the Democratic base which assisted candidates even in areas that he didn't win (and all available evidence suggests that he enthused his own base to a greater degree than he did the Republican base to vote in opposition to him).

[Padfoot]

Just because Obama didn't win a higher percentage of votes doesn't mean he didn't help some newly elected congresspeople to their victories.  Take this hypothetical example:

In 2004 the results in the 1st district of state A were as follows:

President:
150,654 Bush
115,898 Kerry

Representative:
140,422 Republican
125,130 Democrat

Now lets say that Obama's campaign manages to register about 20,000 new Democratic voters in this district and McCain basically holds Bush's numbers from 2004.  Here's how State A's 1st district looks in 2008:

President:
148,713 McCain
134,220 Obama

Representative:
139,567 Republican
143,187 Democrat

As you can see, it is completely reasonable to assert that Obama carried this Democratic representative into Congress even though Obama received less votes than the Congressional candidate.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, because we obviously had much higher turnout in those Congressional races, CARL.

[Brittain33]

There has been some allegations that Obama swept Democrats into congressional offices.

Results from the House races (see Ballot Access News, December is that House Democrat candidates accumulated 53.9% of the vote (better than Obama).

Hmm.

You can't go anywhere with that data, because few congressional races were contested by two viable candidates in the way that the Presidential race was.

[Nicodeme Depape]

Obama did help Kay Hagan get into office when he started to focus on North Carolina, before that she was given no chance of beating Dole. Her, and a few other Senators.

[Stranger in a strange land]

There has been some allegations that Obama swept Democrats into congressional offices.

Results from the House races (see Ballot Access News, December is that House Democrat candidates accumulated 53.9% of the vote (better than Obama).

Hmm.

You can't go anywhere with that data, because few congressional races were contested by two viable candidates in the way that the Presidential race was.

THIS.

And where Obama did help congressional Democrats, it was mainly by raising black and youth turnout. In the suburbs, Obama's appeal failed to carry over to down-ballot democrats very much.

[Torie]

There has been some allegations that Obama swept Democrats into congressional offices.

Results from the House races (see Ballot Access News, December is that House Democrat candidates accumulated 53.9% of the vote (better than Obama).

Hmm.

You can't go anywhere with that data, because few congressional races were contested by two viable candidates in the way that the Presidential race was.

[Gustaf]

It's absurd to interpret the thread as claiming the down-ballot candidates carried Obama. It rather seems to suggest that Obama didn't carry them, by posing a rethorical question.

It seems reasonable to claim that it was a good Democratic year and Obama didn't do that well, considering that.

[Brittain33]

It's absurd to interpret the thread as claiming the down-ballot candidates carried Obama. It rather seems to suggest that Obama didn't carry them, by posing a rethorical question.

It seems reasonable to claim that it was a good Democratic year and Obama didn't do that well, considering that.

You're overreading into people's criticism. The thread makes one specific claim using one specific piece of evidence and it's not "absurd" to respond to those claims, even if someone could make tangentially related arguments relying on other evidence that wouldn't be incorrect.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, actually Obama got close to 10 million more votes than Democratic Congressional candidates.  The percentage of the vote wasn't much higher. I'll be generous and count the Working Families votes too, and it's 53.13% from Wikipedia.

[Eraserhead]

It's absurd to interpret the thread as claiming the down-ballot candidates carried Obama. It rather seems to suggest that Obama didn't carry them, by posing a rethorical question.

It seems reasonable to claim that it was a good Democratic year and Obama didn't do that well, considering that.

The title of the thread is "Who carried who?"

[Smid]

The result in places like WV - where the Democrats won two congressional districts, to the Republicans' one but the Republicans still won the state - suggests that there may have been areas where Democrat members of Congress won somewhat more than Obama did, which would have affected these figures. Of course, there would have been other areas where Obama did significantly better than the congressional candidates. I think, however, that Democrats in the South and Apalachia running for Congress probably outperformed Obama enough to impact on the overall figures. It's not that congressional candidates carried Obama, it's that Obama carried congressional candidates in most places (or perhaps that the Democrat brand generally carried more people) however Obama's poor result through that part of the country probably weighed him down in comparison to the overall congressional result.

[nclib]

The result in places like WV - where the Democrats won two congressional districts, to the Republicans' one but the Republicans still won the state - suggests that there may have been areas where Democrat members of Congress won somewhat more than Obama did, which would have affected these figures. Of course, there would have been other areas where Obama did significantly better than the congressional candidates. I think, however, that Democrats in the South and Apalachia running for Congress probably outperformed Obama enough to impact on the overall figures. It's not that congressional candidates carried Obama, it's that Obama carried congressional candidates in most places (or perhaps that the Democrat brand generally carried more people) however Obama's poor result through that part of the country probably weighed him down in comparison to the overall congressional result.

WV's state parties differ from their respective national counterparts more than in most states. In fact, I heard that Obama's best CD in WV was actually the only one carried by a Republican (WV-2).

[Smid]

The result in places like WV - where the Democrats won two congressional districts, to the Republicans' one but the Republicans still won the state - suggests that there may have been areas where Democrat members of Congress won somewhat more than Obama did, which would have affected these figures. Of course, there would have been other areas where Obama did significantly better than the congressional candidates. I think, however, that Democrats in the South and Apalachia running for Congress probably outperformed Obama enough to impact on the overall figures. It's not that congressional candidates carried Obama, it's that Obama carried congressional candidates in most places (or perhaps that the Democrat brand generally carried more people) however Obama's poor result through that part of the country probably weighed him down in comparison to the overall congressional result.

WV's state parties differ from their respective national counterparts more than in most states. In fact, I heard that Obama's best CD in WV was actually the only one carried by a Republican (WV-2).

I don't have the figures - but that's kind of what I was trying to say - that congressional districts like that throughout Apalachia and the south may have made it appear that congressional candidates generally did better than Obama, whereas in other parts of the country this may not have been the case.

[Gustaf]

It's absurd to interpret the thread as claiming the down-ballot candidates carried Obama. It rather seems to suggest that Obama didn't carry them, by posing a rhetorical question.

It seems reasonable to claim that it was a good Democratic year and Obama didn't do that well, considering that.

The title of the thread is "Who carried who?"

As for Brittain, I'm not sure how your post relates to mine. You say it is not absurd to respond to a specific claim made by the thread. I'm not sure what that claim is. The title is a question, which can never be a claim. A question can of course be interpreted as suggesting something. I would then pose that it is absurd to assume that what it is suggesting is that down-ballot candidates literally carried Obama. Rather that they out-performed him because he did worse than generic Democrat.

[Alcon]

As for Brittain, I'm not sure how your post relates to mine. You say it is not absurd to respond to a specific claim made by the thread. I'm not sure what that claim is. The title is a question, which can never be a claim. A question can of course be interpreted as suggesting something. I would then pose that it is absurd to assume that what it is suggesting is that down-ballot candidates literally carried Obama. Rather that they out-performed him because he did worse than generic Democrat.

Then wouldn't the title be, Did Obama carry congressional Democrats after all?, or something?  I personally think the implication of the thread title was pretty clear, at least not "absurd," but I guess that was just my interpretation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I heard that Obama's best CD in WV was actually the only one carried by a Republican (WV-2).

Ever so slightly, yes. The district includes most of WV's share of the DC media market. It's also the most urban (lol, a relative term I know) and had the highest turnout. But there's not much difference between 43, 42 and 41.

[minionofmidas]

Another possibility is that McCain was more popular than the average Republican. Given that he was perceived as less connected to Bush than the average Republican and that Bush was highly unpopular, this is certainly plausible.

There were definitely clear segments of the population to which Obama appealed less than the average Democrat did, though other segments in which he appealed much more.

But yes, I agree that Obama had few coattails, though he certainly did help increase turnout of several key parts of the Democratic base which assisted candidates even in areas that he didn't win (and all available evidence suggests that he enthused his own base to a greater degree than he did the Republican base to vote in opposition to him).

Not the individual House incumbents per se, but the same national mood / party. Although the point about incumbency is a valid one.

As for Brittain, I'm not sure how your post relates to mine. You say it is not absurd to respond to a specific claim made by the thread. I'm not sure what that claim is. The title is a question, which can never be a claim. A question can of course be interpreted as suggesting something. I would then pose that it is absurd to assume that what it is suggesting is that down-ballot candidates literally carried Obama. Rather that they out-performed him because he did worse than generic Democrat.

Then wouldn't the title be, Did Obama carry congressional Democrats after all?, or something?  I personally think the implication of the thread title was pretty clear, at least not "absurd," but I guess that was just my interpretation.

So? It's a rhetorical exaggeration.

Carl's real error lies in assuming that anyone on here assumes that Obama's coattails swept all these new Democrats in. Although maybe that was the mainstream media story.