Novak: If Trent Lott Retires, Democrat Moore Would Win His Seat

[socaldem]

Mississippi has a strange political dichotomy. While most of the south has renounced its Democratic ties, Mississippi and West Virginia, still elect Democrats to their state legislature. If Moore can convince voters that he's a good ole boy, he can win.

I rate this as lean Republican because of Chip Pickering potential entrance into this race. Pickering is an eloquent speaker who has benefited from his father's plight and defeated a venerable Democratic congressman in a redistricting battle by a resounding margin.

Uh, in the deep South, the Alabama and Louisiana legislatures are also controlled by Democrats.  The Arkansas legislature is ridiculously Democratic and Democrats retook control in North Carolina in '04, so MS is not really an aberration.

[MarkWarner08]

Mississippi has a strange political dichotomy. While most of the south has renounced its Democratic ties, Mississippi and West Virginia, still elect Democrats to their state legislature. If Moore can convince voters that he's a good ole boy, he can win.

I rate this as lean Republican because of Chip Pickering potential entrance into this race. Pickering is an eloquent speaker who has benefited from his father's plight and defeated a venerable Democratic congressman in a redistricting battle by a resounding margin.

Uh, in the deep South, the Alabama and Louisiana legislatures are also controlled by Democrats.  The Arkansas legislature is ridiculously Democratic and Democrats retook control in North Carolina in '04, so MS is not really an aberration.

The  GOP's  2002 and 2004 legislative victories in Georgia and Oklahoma were a harbinger of  a larger trend.  No longer are Southern voters distinguishing between liberal Michael Dukakis (D) and State Rep. Michael Dukins(D). This is a slow process, but it is speeding up.   The polarization of the political spectrum has made Southern Republicans, who normally voted for conservative Dmeocrats at the state level, loath to pull the lever for any candidate sadled with the Demcoratic label.

Alabama's State House has gone from a 65 seat Democratic lead in 1990 to a 21 seat Democratic lead in 2004 with every cycle Democrats losing at least 2 seats.

Lousiana's demographics have changed since New Orleans shifted from a 2/3 African American city to a 2/3 Caucasian city. The GOP will gain seats and probably both the State House and Senate.

Democrats gained in North Carolina because of the effective campaign of popular Gov. Mike Easely, which stalled the GOP's progress at the municipal and state levels.

[socaldem]

Mississippi has a strange political dichotomy. While most of the south has renounced its Democratic ties, Mississippi and West Virginia, still elect Democrats to their state legislature. If Moore can convince voters that he's a good ole boy, he can win.

I rate this as lean Republican because of Chip Pickering potential entrance into this race. Pickering is an eloquent speaker who has benefited from his father's plight and defeated a venerable Democratic congressman in a redistricting battle by a resounding margin.

Uh, in the deep South, the Alabama and Louisiana legislatures are also controlled by Democrats.  The Arkansas legislature is ridiculously Democratic and Democrats retook control in North Carolina in '04, so MS is not really an aberration.

The  GOP's  2002 and 2004 legislative victories in Georgia and Oklahoma were a harbinger of  a larger trend.  No longer are Southern voters distinguishing between liberal Michael Dukakis (D) and State Rep. Michael Dukins(D). This is a slow process, but it is speeding up.   The polarization of the political spectrum has made Southern Republicans, who normally voted for conservative Dmeocrats at the state level, loath to pull the lever for any candidate sadled with the Demcoratic label.

Alabama's State House has gone from a 65 seat Democratic lead in 1990 to a 21 seat Democratic lead in 2004 with every cycle Democrats losing at least 2 seats.

Lousiana's demographics have changed since New Orleans shifted from a 2/3 African American city to a 2/3 Caucasian city. The GOP will gain seats and probably both the State House and Senate.

Democrats gained in North Carolina because of the effective campaign of popular Gov. Mike Easely, which stalled the GOP's progress at the municipal and state levels.

That's all certainly true... but my basic point is that Southern Democratic residue is not at all strange.  On the contrary, it has long been the norm and has only been recently challenged as in Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee...

[Gustaf]

IS there any site that has state legislature make-up collected? I would be interested, especially in the SOuthern numbers...

[MarkWarner08]

Gustaf: Here's a website with info on the political split in state legislatures. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/cgi-bin/r.cgi/ContainerDetail.html?&ContainerID=1

[socaldem]

Lott's retirement announcement should be coming soon...

Also, what if Senator Conrad Burns steps down in, say, March or so... do Dems Morrison and Tester have a chance against Rehberg?

Would Monica Lindeen, who, actually is a pretty good House candidate, be favored to pick up the House seat? 

Any thoughts on Pickering's district... I suppose that Ronnie Shows couldn't make a comeback given his miserable performance in the member v. member race of '02...

[Ben.]

Lott's retirement announcement should be coming soon...

Know something we don't?

[Keystone Phil]

Also, what if Senator Conrad Burns steps down in, say, March or so... do Dems Morrison and Tester have a chance against Rehberg?

They'd still have a shot but not a great one. That's why I'm hoping for Burns to step aside. This race is not built around the opposition's strength and popularity; the focus is more on Burns' weakness. He's never been that popular in Montana so taking him out of the picture would help the GOP chances.

[jimrtex]

Mike Moore should be in prison for his role in the tobacco settlement, which funneled $billions in fees to trial lawyers, who kick the money back in the form of campaign contributions.

The payments to the states and private trial lawyers amounts to an excise tax on cigarettes, which the tobacco companies simply pass on to the consumer/addicts.  They are quite content to pay a penny or two in production costs, a huge excise tax, and make a penny profit on a business which the settlement has legitimized.   They then launder their profits into other businesses such as CBS, Loews Hotels, and Nabisco.

[© tweed]

Also, what if Senator Conrad Burns steps down in, say, March or so... do Dems Morrison and Tester have a chance against Rehberg?

Nah, he won't step down...GO BURNS GO

[Ben.]

When is Lott meant to be making his mind up anyway? At the moment I still think its most likely that he’ll stick with it in the senate and all this posturing is an attempt to win concessions from the GOP leadership on the hill… but I guess theirs a chance he’ll step down, what’s more (no pun intended) if he does Moore has a more than excellent shot at the seat.

This race is not built around the opposition's strength and popularity; the focus is more on Burns' weakness.

I’d pretty much agree, if Burns where to step down then Rehberg will be a very much stronger candidate for the GOP, though theres always a slim chance that in such a race the Dems could provide for an upset – but as you say Burns rather than Tester or Morrison is the one making this race lean against him not vice versa, though I’ll admit that Morrison could still have a chance.

What’s probably most likely is that Morrison switches to the House race if Rehberg runs for Senate leaving Tester or so one else to run and probably lose.

[TheresNoMoney]

Politicalwire.com reported sometime in the past week or so that Lott would be making his decision very soon. Supposedly he was going to make a decision during the holiday vacation (which is now over).

I think Lott will run again.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think he will too, unfortunately for us.

[7,052,770]

Any thoughts on Pickering's district... I suppose that Ronnie Shows couldn't make a comeback given his miserable performance in the member v. member race of '02...

It's significantly gerrymandered to a Republican.  Then again, Taylor always wins in a heavily Republican district, but I don't think we can strike gold twice.  Plus, in '04 we didn't even have a candidate to run against Pickering.  So I would etch in it stone that D3 is going Republican, no matter who the candidates are.

I think Lott will run again.

I fear he will too, but I hope Moore challenges him anyway if he does.