Which map is the most likely by 2030?

[ElectionsGuy]

Map #1:

Democrat: 278
Republican: 260

Map #2:

Republican: 271
Democrat: 267

Map #3:

Democrat: 269
Republican: 269

[ElectionsGuy]

Here are the guidelines to each map:

Map #1: West becomes increasingly democratic, NC, VA, and FL trend democratic. White parts of Mideast and Midwest trend heavily republican.

Map #2: West trends more republican. The South Atlantic trends heavily D. Northeast and Midwest slowly become more republican.

Map #3: Not much trending. Midwest becomes a little more republican, South Atlantic trends slightly democratic, and the west largely stays the same.

I personally say map #3.

[TNF]

The Democrats won't lose Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, and they sure as hell ain't gonna lose Minnesota.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The third one, though none of these is really accurate.

[Cryptic]

The third one, though none of these is really accurate.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here are the guidelines to each map:

Map #1: West becomes increasingly democratic, NC, VA, and FL trend democratic. White parts of Mideast and Midwest trend heavily republican.

Map #2: West trends more republican. The South Atlantic trends heavily D. Northeast and Midwest slowly become more republican.

Map #3: Not much trending. Midwest becomes a little more republican, South Atlantic trends slightly democratic, and the west largely stays the same.

I personally say map #3.

Maybe you could offer some theories as to why these changes would occur?

And:

The third one, though none of these is really accurate.

[windjammer]

Maybe this map? Social issues won't be important anymore. So West would flip to republicans and some Eastern States: connecticut, new jersey, maine new hampshire too.

[JacobNC]

^^Assuming Republicans struggle to make inroads in minority communities, I think New Jersey stays Democratic.  Probably all of New England, too.  But I could see some of the upper midwestern states like Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin flipping if the current trends with the white vote continue.

[windjammer]

^^Assuming Republicans struggle to make inroads in minority communities, I think New Jersey stays Democratic.  Probably all of New England, too.  But I could see some of the upper midwestern states like Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin flipping if the current trends with the white vote continue.

Honestly, I think that republicans will probably improve their minority vote! I don't see MN, WI, MI becoming republican!

[Mechaman]

Lol this thread

ANyway I don't see how any of those maps are possible

lol, Democrats are never going to win states like Massachusetts or Rhode Island or Minnesota by 1936 (without a third party), lol.  You guys are such jokers.

[Consciously Unconscious]

I agree with you ElectionsGuy; map 3 is the most likely one. 

[MATTROSE94]

Lol this thread

ANyway I don't see how any of those maps are possible

lol, Democrats are never going to win states like Massachusetts or Rhode Island or Minnesota by 1936 (without a third party), lol.  You guys are such jokers.

Looks like a reversal of the 2004 map, with the exception of New Hampshire, South Dakota, West Virginia, Iowa, Indiana, Delaware, California and Washington.

[buritobr]

If the "white hispanics" were considered only "white" in the future, the share of the minorities on the total population of Florida and Nevada will decrease, and so, they don't need to be safe Democratic states.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Lol this thread

ANyway I don't see how any of those maps are possible

lol, Democrats are never going to win states like Massachusetts or Rhode Island or Minnesota by 1936 (without a third party), lol.  You guys are such jokers.

Looks like a reversal of the 2004 map, with the exception of New Hampshire, South Dakota, West Virginia, Iowa, Indiana, Delaware, California and Washington.

That's 1916.

[Mechaman]

Lol this thread

ANyway I don't see how any of those maps are possible

lol, Democrats are never going to win states like Massachusetts or Rhode Island or Minnesota by 1936 (without a third party), lol.  You guys are such jokers.

Looks like a reversal of the 2004 map, with the exception of New Hampshire, South Dakota, West Virginia, Iowa, Indiana, Delaware, California and Washington.

That's 1916.

Of course it is, I posted it to make a point.

[MATTROSE94]

Lol this thread

ANyway I don't see how any of those maps are possible

lol, Democrats are never going to win states like Massachusetts or Rhode Island or Minnesota by 1936 (without a third party), lol.  You guys are such jokers.

Looks like a reversal of the 2004 map, with the exception of New Hampshire, South Dakota, West Virginia, Iowa, Indiana, Delaware, California and Washington.

That's 1916.

I knew that. I was actually going over the 1916 map a few weeks ago and just realized that it was almost an inverse of 2004.

[TJ in Oregon]

I'd go with Option 1, except switch Arizona and Minnesota. Of the three, I'll take Option 1.