Ipsos/Reuters May 6-10th Clinton +1

[Pragmatic Conservative]

May 6-10th
Hillary Clinton 41%
Donald Trump 40%
Undecided 19%
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0Y21TN

[Old Man Willow]

Ah, another worthless poll with neither candidate cracking 45%. Until there's a well known (or at least well funded) third party candidate, any poll like this is utter trash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He will get a bump before the convention. As well, but ultimately he will lose

[Chaddyr23]

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160201-20160510/collapsed/true/spotlight/1 Have you seen how much this poll fluctuates?

[Fusionmunster]

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160201-20160510/collapsed/true/spotlight/1 Have you seen how much this poll fluctuates?

Reuters is terrible, but so are most online daily tracking polls.

[john cage bubblegum]

I think we've seen enough polls to say that Trump has likely gotten a bump from wrapping up his nomination while Clinton is still working to officially put away Bernie.  Expect a similar bump for Clinton when she wraps it up in June.

[pbrower2a]

The rationale is that Republicans are uniting behind  Donald Trump, realizing that for them Hillary Clinton is far, far worse..

It's 41-40, which is practically useless as polling data because such is extremely close to the absolute floors for the vote for Presidential nominees in both Parties in the biggest landslide losses.   

[jaichind]

I think Clinton will get a similar bump in June and regain something like a 5%-6% lead which might just end up being the final result.

[ag]

We can pretty much agree that if Clinton has a lead at this point, it is marginal, at best. Time to take things very seriously.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, she gets destroyed with independents.

Trump 43
Other 38
Clinton 19

[Ebsy]

Wow, she gets destroyed with independents.

Trump 43
Other 38
Clinton 19

You have to be a special kind of stupid to believe that this is anywhere close to reality.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

I think Clinton will get a similar bump in June and regain something like a 5%-6% lead which might just end up being the final result.

This.  I still think Trump has less than a five percent chance at winning.

[dax00]

Reuters is highly regarded. This is no junk poll.

People are blinding themselves intentionally.

[RJEvans]

Shows Clinton and Trump basically tied, so obviously junk poll (just like the Quinnipiac polls, the PPP poll and the YouGov poll).

In all seriousness though, it's still way too early to take general election polls seriously.

The real question is what happens after Sanders is out of the race and Clinton is presumptive nominee.  I suspect she gets a bump back to between Obama 2008/2012 numbers.  I think this is what 1940 would have been with an open seat instead of a hero incumbent.  The Goldwater/McGovern scenario for Trump now looks unlikely, unless he has a complete meltdown like threatening to nuke US allies on TV.  Still think a modified Daisy Girl ad would help Clinton greatly to make the race all about competence.

Actually Clinton is polling slightly better than Obama after Romney and McCain won their nominations. It was McCain +1.5 after he secured the nomination in March 2008. It was Obama +0.2 after Romney secured the nomination in April 2012 and if we average all the polls that has come out post IN primary, it's Clinton +3.7. I think Trump's bounce has a little more room left but I'm not sweating these numbers, yet.

[IceSpear]

Reuters is highly regarded. This is no junk poll.

People are blinding themselves intentionally.

Uh, their polls were complete junk the entire primary season, with erratic and wild swings for no discernable reasons. They were also polling candidates who weren't running well into November. They're crap.

[Reginald]

Wow, she gets destroyed with independents.

Trump 43
Other 38
Clinton 19

You have to be a special kind of stupid to believe that this is anywhere close to reality.

Yeah, this is a huge outlier for Independents. Wouldn't be if Clinton and Other were flipped, but as it stands...