2016: Evan McMullin Debates

[FDB]

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[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Fmr. Secy. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Sen. Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA)
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) / Gov. Michael R. Pence (R-IN)
Evan McMullin (I-UT) / Mindy Finn (I-DC)

Evan McMullin uses his CIA intelligence officer skills to expose Mr. Trump on live TV and The People™ of the GOP throw off the business mogul to vote for the moral choice and let Hillary win.
/s

In all seriousness, I don't think it would affect things too much. He would probably get a bump in the polls and Utah might be closer, but I believe Trump still would have won in the end.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

It's worth noting that, barring a change to the rules, McMullin would have needed to be polling at or above 15% to be invited to the debates. In such a scenario, it seems highly likely that Clinton manages an electoral college victory, with McMullin carrying Utah and quite possible Idaho. I'd uess Johnson's performance would be significantly worse in comparison to the 3% he won IRL, with most of his support going to McMullin.

Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine (Democratic) 357 electors, 46% votes
Donald Trump and Mike Pence (Republican) 175 electors, 39% votes
Evan McMullin and Mindy Flinn (Independent) 8 electors, 13% votes
Faith Spotted Eagle and Winona LaDuke (Faithless Electors) 1 electors, 0% votes
Others (Various) 0 electors, 3% votes