The challenge of 2018 for Democrats

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As I see it you have two main groups of Trump voters: your hardcore Trumpists, and Republican loyalists who reluctantly went along with him.  And there's a problem here for Democrats in the midterms, even as Trump becomes monumentally unpopular:

Let's look at your GOP loyalists.  These people vote reliably.  They reliably vote GOP.  They don't care how insane and irrational Trump gets; their interest is in keeping the party in power.  If I'm one of these folks, the prospect of Trump going down in flames is going to encourage me to vote Republican in 2018.  Last thing I want is a Democratic president with a Democratic Congress in Jan 2021.

Now, let's consider the Trumpists.  Exactly how far does Trump need to drop before these guys abandon him?

So, maybe it's not Trump's unpopularity, but Republicans in Congress themselves.  The big issue is health care, with millions of Americans potentially looking at loss of coverage, or extremely expensive insurance.  But in what red districts, exactly, does this help the Democrats?  If you're upper-middle-class in suburban Georgia, the GOP health plan (if it ever comes about) is probably going to benefit you, not hurt you.  You already get coverage through work, and your premium will probably go down.  Maybe bigly down.  You'll have a much more flexible, powerful HSA.  So while there will be a mob going to the polls with torches and pitchforks, it's not going to be districts like GA-6.  Poor swing districts in places like the Ohio Valley and Rust Belt, but how many are there of those?

The bottom line is, taking the House means getting red districts to elect Democrats, and that's a tough sell.  Even if Ossoff wins tonight, it may simply be that we're at a particularly low point in Republican morale.  Will that be sustained for the next 16 months?

And don't get me started on how much the Senate is stacked against the Democrats in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't have to win the majority of their races to win the House in all red districts, alot of them are in Latino districts and the 25 districts Clinton won with GOP Congressmen are in are in AZ, PA, CA and FL, more Democratic friendly territory. 

[Mr.Phips]

As I see it you have two main groups of Trump voters: your hardcore Trumpists, and Republican loyalists who reluctantly went along with him.  And there's a problem here for Democrats in the midterms, even as Trump becomes monumentally unpopular:

Let's look at your GOP loyalists.  These people vote reliably.  They reliably vote GOP.  They don't care how insane and irrational Trump gets; their interest is in keeping the party in power.  If I'm one of these folks, the prospect of Trump going down in flames is going to encourage me to vote Republican in 2018.  Last thing I want is a Democratic president with a Democratic Congress in Jan 2021.

So then why didn't Democrats turn out to vote in 2010 and 2014 when Obama looked incredibly weak in order to prevent a GOP President and Congress in 2012 and 2016?

[Virginiá]

Now, let's consider the Trumpists.  Exactly how far does Trump need to drop before these guys abandon him?

I actually posted something about this earlier today - it's not just 'Trumpists,' but rather strong and soft Trump supporters. There are a lot of his voters who only voted for him reluctantly, and would still choose someone else if they had the opportunity today. These are the voters most likely to peel away from Trump. In a district like GA-6 where Trump won only narrowly, these soft supporters are part of what got him to a 1 - 2% winning margin. If he loses more of these voters, a lot of the close districts that he won will go further under. These are the voters Democrats want to target.

The bottom line is, taking the House means getting red districts to elect Democrats, and that's a tough sell.  Even if Ossoff wins tonight, it may simply be that we're at a particularly low point in Republican morale.  Will that be sustained for the next 16 months?

Why not? Since Bush (and with some presidents before), things have usually gotten worse for presidents as their terms went on, and with Trump's administration being so incompetent and understaffed, and the GOP's policy agenda being so unpopular, do you really see things getting better for them? It's perfectly possible for Republicans to be just as demoralized in late 2018 as they are now. Especially when the president has a special counsel investigating them, with indictments for former and possibly current aides almost surely to come (eg - Flynn).

Lastly, I might add, Democrats are already posting pretty good numbers in the generic ballot. Combined with the energy we're seeing, recruiting successes and large fundraising, everything seems to suggest a bad midterm for Republicans. The question is just how bad.

[Andy Hine]

There are also these people known as independents.

[Virginiá]

There are also these people known as independents.

Correct. Midterms like 2006 were not won by Democrats so bigly by flipping large amounts of Republicans. It was mostly a combination of increased Democratic enthusiasm, flipping maybe 1-2% more Republicans, and winning Indies by a landslide. In fact, you might say a similar pattern emerges for big Republican midterm wins, but in reverse.

[Gass3268]

There are also these people known as independents.

Correct. Midterms like 2006 were not won by Democrats so bigly by flipping large amounts of Republicans. It was mostly a combination of increased Democratic enthusiasm, flipping maybe 1-2% more Republicans, and winning Indies by a landslide. In fact, you might say a similar pattern emerges for big Republican midterm wins, but in reverse.

Also large amounts of Republicans sitting home (like 10-15%).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As I see it you have two main groups of Trump voters: your hardcore Trumpists, and Republican loyalists who reluctantly went along with him.  And there's a problem here for Democrats in the midterms, even as Trump becomes monumentally unpopular:

Let's look at your GOP loyalists.  These people vote reliably.  They reliably vote GOP.  They don't care how insane and irrational Trump gets; their interest is in keeping the party in power.  If I'm one of these folks, the prospect of Trump going down in flames is going to encourage me to vote Republican in 2018.  Last thing I want is a Democratic president with a Democratic Congress in Jan 2021.

So then why didn't Democrats turn out to vote in 2010 and 2014 when Obama looked incredibly weak in order to prevent a GOP President and Congress in 2012 and 2016?

This is the key difference between Democrats and Republicans.  Republicans are dedicated, consistent, loyal voters who turn out for midterms.  For whatever reason, frustratingly, getting Democrats to turn out in non-Presidential years is like herding cats.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

There are also these people known as independents.

Correct. Midterms like 2006 were not won by Democrats so bigly by flipping large amounts of Republicans. It was mostly a combination of increased Democratic enthusiasm, flipping maybe 1-2% more Republicans, and winning Indies by a landslide. In fact, you might say a similar pattern emerges for big Republican midterm wins, but in reverse.

A lot of independents turned to Trump in 2016, and form a big part of his base.  This is one of the major problems for Democrats.  The wave of independent white anger against Bush was what brought about the 2006 wave, as well as Obama's success in places like Indiana in 2008.  Eight years later that wave of white anger found a voice in Trump.  It's entirely possible they will become disenchanted with him, but will they go to the polls and vote Democrats back into office, or just stay at home?

The hope is that the health care debacle will unravel the independent support.  I think this will happen in a few districts, but enough of them?

[Virginiá]

It's entirely possible they will become disenchanted with him, but will they go to the polls and vote Democrats back into office, or just stay at home?

Indies are a big part of why his approvals are so low. They actually turned on him rather quickly. If I had to guess, with these kinds of numbers, it's not hard to see 2006-level Independent support for Democrats in 2018, probably combined with some sort of enthusiasm gap for Trump supporters of all stripes.

I don't know it'll play out in 2018 for sure, but historically, bad approval ratings among certain voters is more likely to lead to said voters voting for the opposition party or simply staying home. It would be highly unlikely for Trump to be holding approval ratings in the mid-low 30s with Indies and still see Republicans perform even close to normal with them in 2018. Neither Bush nor Obama could pull it off, and I doubt Trump could either - not with the way things have been looking so far.

Despite the sting of numerous close losses in deeply Republican districts lately, if you put together all special elections so far, it still indicates a double digit swing to Democrats, which would be the kind of swing they need in 2018 to take back the House.

[wjx987]

I think the real challenge for Democrats in 2018 is to stop talking about Trump. Look at Archie Parnell in SC-05. He was decisively liberal and ran in a very red district and didn't nationalize his race. He only mentioned D.C. in his ads and only ever mentioned Trump in his ads indirectly. His website doesn't say Trump's name once. He ran on district issues alone, and, that combined with low GOP turnout, made this race closer than GA-06. I think the Democrats' challenge in 2018 is to effectively model Parnell.

[Yank2133]

I think the real challenge for Democrats in 2018 is to stop talking about Trump. Look at Archie Parnell in SC-05. He was decisively liberal and ran in a very red district and didn't nationalize his race. He only mentioned D.C. in his ads and only ever mentioned Trump in his ads indirectly. His website doesn't say Trump's name once. He ran on district issues alone, and, that combined with low GOP turnout, made this race closer than GA-06. I think the Democrats' challenge in 2018 is to effectively model Parnell.

Ossoff didn't mention Trump either and still lost.

And I would caution putting much stock in Parnell performance. The GOP didn't go nuclear on him and they had enough material to do so. (him being an ex. goldman sachs banker). If this race had gotten more attention, he loses by double digits.

[Rjjr77]

There are also these people known as independents.

Not really, most unaffiliated voters tend to have strong breaks one party or another. The large swath of independent voters tends to be more mythological. But this is a discussion that is polarizing among politicos. You'll see more R leaning "independents" stay home in 2018, and D leaners come out, but as 2004 and 2012 showed base turnout is often more important

[Kamala]

The one silver lining of these special elections: they're showing that Democrats are enthusiastic, more than they've been for previous midterms. Midterms are a turnout game, less of a swing game.

[UncleSam]

Uh idk Parnell might've lost bigger if he had been focused by Republicans but in a midterm you can't focus on every race. If Dems run similar campaigns in like 100 Republican districts they will flip a few because you can't focus everywhere.

That being said Republicans CAN focus on a few dozen swing districts and pour big money into them, and GA-6 demonstrated that anywhere that leans Republican, even the anti-Trump areas, will reliably stay in the flock for a candidate who isn't nuts (or maybe even one that is ala MT-AL). Dems can pick up a dozen districts by uniform shift of a few points (mostly among independents) and can hold most of their districts the same way, but getting to ~24 will require at least a few Parnells winning under-the-radar races in Red districts. Republicans have a cash and state infrastructure advantage at this point over the Dems in most swing states, and Dems need to find a way to use the next six months to rebuild that (something that all the special election money could've been put to much better use on IMO).

[publicunofficial]

More than Republicans or soft Republicans, Democrats should target the people who voted in 2008 or 2012 but stayed home in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems have an away Senate map while they are trying to pick up the presidency and it might limit their gains.  However, the majority of the districts remaining in 2018 are PA, FL and CA and NY, Latino states that dems are expected to win gubernatorial contests in.

So, the GOP still have to watch out.