Is AZ a realistic pickup for Dems without a strong third party?

[Person Man]

Democrats didn't break 46% since 1964 in Colorado...they won it in 1992 and then lost it when they won nationally by 8%. But they put the time in and now they are winning there consistently. It was undergoing similar changes with similar headwinds.

[Webnicz]

story about how Adrian fonts plans to move Maricopa county into the direction of vote by mail election. I was able to test out the new system and was very impressed - ages different than when they had those 4 hour long lines. Also you can now vote in any  Precinct(wow)!!!

This could really sway a statewide election

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/06/27/maricopa-county-elections-all-mail-voting-ballot-centers/402191001/

though it does have to be approved I could see opposition from the AZGOP for the same reasons the MTGOP proposed - partisan hackery nonsense.

[NOVA Green]

AZ is a realistic pickup for a Dem Pres in 2020, regardless of 3rd Party Votes.

Let's face it, HRC almost won the State despite her massive unfav ratings...

It would be difficult to envision a generic Dem performing worse against Trump in 2020 than HRC in '16.

Clinton was only about a half point higher than Obama--the margin was only closer because of the large third party vote.

Implying that there wasn't a significant amount of left-leaning voters who voted for Johnson(and Stein improved on her 2012 performance by a decent amount too).

Thanks Scarlet!!!!

Bingo---- hit the jackpot...

The deal with many traditionally Pub voters is that they are much less likely to vote 3rd Party in many Western States than Dem voters....

In fact the evidence seems to strongly indicate thus far that 3rd Party voting (Including Write-Ins) were much more prevalent among the <35 Year crowd (Millennial Voters) than among the 55+ crowd.

This phenomenon appears to have transcended ethnicity, income, and educational level.

Now, one might make an argument but what about LDS members in Arizona, maybe there was a huge % that went 3rd Party, or what about the cliche of "Goldwater Republican" type voters---- both theories appear to be absolute bunk, and until I see supporting evidence that this "phenomenon" exists and will benefit Pubs around the margins in 2020, I will call it what it is.

Soooo.... 3rd Party votes in Arizona were clearly more of a rejection of HRC among Millennial Voters than anything else, and with a different Dem candidate at the top of the ticket and assuming that Trump is the 'Pub choice in 2020, I would rate Arizona at least as a toss-up state, and quite possibly with a narrow Dem edge.

[Globalist Cosmopolitan]

It depends on the nominee. I say that winning AZ is very likely considering the monstrosity of a president Trump has been thus far.

[Greedo punched first]

Yes. AZ is trending in favor of Democrats.

[NOVA Green]

story about how Adrian fonts plans to move Maricopa county into the direction of vote by mail election. I was able to test out the new system and was very impressed - ages different than when they had those 4 hour long lines. Also you can now vote in any  Precinct(wow)!!!

This could really sway a statewide election

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/06/27/maricopa-county-elections-all-mail-voting-ballot-centers/402191001/

though it does have to be approved I could see opposition from the AZGOP for the same reasons the MTGOP proposed - partisan hackery nonsense.

Vote-by-Mail (VbM) is the way to go, and has made a much larger difference in terms of registered voters actually voting in Oregon (We were the first State to enact), and certainly compared to the relatively minor effects of Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) in Oregon.

VbM will likely have an even bigger impact in Arizona than many other Western States, simply because of relatively low voter turnout rates.

Now, one could postulate about the partisan impacts of increased voter turnout levels in Arizona, where items such as VbM tend to increase turnout among younger voters the most (<35), as they did in Oregon.... In Oregon, I have yet to see any real evidence that it dramatically altered the political landscape between 1988 and 2004 electorally speaking. Maybe Gore would have only won Oregon by 2% in 2000 and Nader might have performed slightly worse, but the fundamentals were already baked in, and Middle-Aged and Middle-Class voters in Portland & the Suburbs, as well as other similar communities throughout the State, would still have swung hard against the Republican Party.

Because of the demographics of AZ, one might imagine that Democrats would be net beneficiaries of VbM, as well as the reality that Millennial Voters generally don't like Trump at all.... In 2020, one could potentially foresee some of the '16 3rd Party Millennials in AZ voting Dem, without HRC at the top of the ticket...

Still, Millennial Voters as the major beneficiaries of VbM, might well continue their heavy 3rd Party voting streak in '20, as a generation that is both heavily idealistic, but also extremely disillusioned with the current state of American politics.

When it comes to statewide non-Presidential Elections, the key is will this surge of newer voters vote for down-ballot contests as well, or just stick to top-of-ticket?

Either way, I would imagine the surge of new voters would likely lead to AZ voting Green on MJ legalization, and quite possibly will boost '18 voter turnout that could impact the '18 AZ-US SEN election, even without VbM.