PPP- Corker +10 vs Generic D

[Kamala]

Link.

If the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Bob Corker or his Democratic opponent?
Bob Corker - 47%
Democratic opponent - 37%
Not sure - 16%

Also, Corker approvals:
Approve - 34%
Disapprove - 47%

Trump approvals:
Approve - 51%
Disapprove - 42%

[GlobeSoc]

A democratic swing here is possible, I guess

[Bismarck]

Safe R but why is Corker so unpopular?

[TheSaint250]

Generic D polls usually have the D up more than real so this is good news for corker

[Kamala]

A democratic swing here is possible, I guess

What's important is that Corker is below the magic 50% mark.

Generic D polls usually have the D up more than real so this is good news for corker

Sometimes I'd say that an actual candidate is better than a "Generic D," especially in really conservative states - example: Heitkamp is probably better than "Generic D." One of the candidates running in TN, James Mackler, is a vet and seems rather moderate, which means he could theoretically exceed Generic D.

Or maybe, Tim McGraw runs. Lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Safe R.

[Mike Thick]

That's pretty lackluster, considering that he won by 35 in 2012.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Remember that TN polls often dramatically understate the margin (the RCP average was ~Trump +10, barely down into Likely R territory).  Plus, he isn't very popular with a lot of ultra-conservatives, so that is a recipe for poor initial numbers.

[TheSaint250]

A democratic swing here is possible, I guess

What's important is that Corker is below the magic 50% mark.

Generic D polls usually have the D up more than real so this is good news for corker

Sometimes I'd say that an actual candidate is better than a "Generic D," especially in really conservative states - example: Heitkamp is probably better than "Generic D." One of the candidates running in TN, James Mackler, is a vet and seems rather moderate, which means he could theoretically exceed Generic D.

Or maybe, Tim McGraw runs. Lol.

Could be. But the above poster does have a good point in that polling can be fluky for Republicans.  I guess we'll just have to see how the race goes.

Also lol with the McGraw thing.

Senator Rock and Senator McGraw: A 2018 Story

Part of me wants to see that happen.

[Suburbia]

Likely R.

[Pollster]

Corker's current Dem opponent is James Mackler, an army vet who gives off Kander vibes and I've heard is a good campaigner. TN is a harder state for Dems than MO but if one seat proves to be a surprise race it could be this one.

[Fudotei]

PPP's polling questions here border on push polling so I'd be wary of any results.

Corker's established. He'll be fine.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The fact that Generic D actually loses support after the push questions just tells you how solid Corker is:

Q3 If the election for US Senate were held today,
would you vote for Republican Bob Corker or
his Democratic opponent?
Bob Corker 47% ......................................................
Democratic opponent 37% ......................................
Not sure 16%

Q13 Thinking about everything you have heard in
this survey, let me ask you again: If the election
for US Senate were held today, would you vote
for Republican Bob Corker or his Democratic
opponent?
Bob Corker 44% (-3)......................................................
Democratic opponent 36% (-1) ......................................
Not sure 20% (+4)

http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Tennessee-PPP-Results.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

Corker isn't going to lose a Senate race as an incumbent Senator in a state like Tennessee. When was the last time polling didn't understate GOP strength in TN? 2006?

That's pretty lackluster, considering that he won by 35 in 2012.

Democrats abandoned their own candidate in 2012, lol.

[Gass3268]

PPP's polling questions here border on push polling so I'd be wary of any results.

Corker's established. He'll be fine.

The questions are fine as long as they are asked after the important questions.

[Mike Thick]

Corker isn't going to lose a Senate race as an incumbent Senator in a state like Tennessee. When was the last time polling didn't understate GOP strength in TN? 2006?

That's pretty lackluster, considering that he won by 35 in 2012.

Democrats abandoned their own candidate in 2012, lol.

Just read the Wikipedia page, and... wat

Regardless, you're 100% right here -- early polling seems to cut the Republican margin in Tennessee in half or worse.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2006

[BuckeyeNut]

Could theoretically go down in a wave. But would almost certainly name McGraw. Or, dare we say, re-elect Gore, 2018?

[Bidenworth2020]

could breseden run?

[TheLeftwardTide]

A democratic swing here is possible, I guess

What's important is that Corker is below the magic 50% mark.

Generic D polls usually have the D up more than real so this is good news for corker

Sometimes I'd say that an actual candidate is better than a "Generic D," especially in really conservative states - example: Heitkamp is probably better than "Generic D." One of the candidates running in TN, James Mackler, is a vet and seems rather moderate, which means he could theoretically exceed Generic D.

Or maybe, Tim McGraw runs. Lol.

How? I looked at the on the issues page on his website, and I can't see how he would be a centrist. Usually centrists have coded language on their campaign websites, such as stating that they want to "create a habitable environment for businesses to thrive" or something. I'm looking through here and it sounds like he's a left-populist candidate, with all of the issues listed being economic, not social. He notably wants to re-negotiate NAFTA.

That said, we don't know enough about him to determine any of this. Considering that this is a deep red state, and Corker's past challengers consisted of one of the worst centrist Democrats and one of the worst Senate nominees in recent history, I just can't wait to be wrong.

could breseden run?

He would have run in 2012, if anything. He almost certainly won't in 2018.