Will Mitch McConnell face a serious primary challenge in 2020?

[Ye We Can]

Still far out so this is just rank speculation, but if things continue going the way they are will McConnell be seriously challenged from within the Republican party in Kentucky? Maybe he'll just retire after all?

Thoughts?

[NewYorkExpress]

If he retires, Bevin almost certainly runs.

If he faces a primary challenge, he probably wins, but it's more difficult than 2014.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

An election is not actually held for McConnell's seat. Yes, ballots are cast, but instead of counting them, state officials roll dice to determine his margin of victory - McConnell losing is not an option.

TL;DR: McConnell will never be defeated.

Of course, if he retires, anything is possible.

[Don Vito Corleone]

If he runs, definitely. Tea Partyers aren't going to forget about the Obamacare repeal promise.

[PragmaticPopulist]

He might, but he'll probably win. McConnell has practically bought all Republicans in the Kentucky congressional delegation, so none of them are likely to challenge him.

[Orser67]

Who would be a strong candidate against McConnell?  Thomas Massie?

I'm assuming Bevin probably runs for re-election in 2019 and then wouldn't pivot to challenging McConnell in 2020.

[Pericles]

Of course he will.

[Pericles]

He only got 60% in 2014 and is even more unpopular now, horrendously so. He could lose.

[Virginiá]

I wonder if his seat would be an easier pickup if he (1) suddenly retired or (2) got primaried, both of which result in an open seat race. Even incumbents like Mitch tend to get a not-insignificant bump from incumbency, but at the same time, he is very unpopular..

Either way, I'm pretty sure 2020 would have to be a sizable Democratic wave with a A+ candidate in Kentucky to put a Democrat in that seat.

[Heisenberg]

I honestly think McConnell just retires in 2020, given his incompetence (aside from the Gorsuch nomination).

[SamTilden2020]

I hope he gets primaried, and he will likely face a primary challenge, but he will unfortunately win the primaries and general in the end.

[Anna Komnene]

For some reason, I read the title as "Will Mitch McConnell's face present a serious challenge in 2020?" and I almost spit out my apple juice. Don't mind me. Nothing to see here.

Anyway, I think there will be a challenger but whether or not its "serious" will probably have more to do with how unpopular he is than who's running against him. Kind of like what happened with Eric Cantor. But I don't think Mitchie-poo is so dumb as to let something like that happen.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Hopefully he gets #destroyed

[Rjjr77]

Mitch McConnell would crush all comers, as he has over his prolific career of stomping people in elections

[Young Conservative]

I honestly think McConnell just retires in 2020, given his incompetence (aside from the Gorsuch nomination).

Gorsuch is the best thing he has done.

[PAK Man]

Either way, I'm pretty sure 2020 would have to be a sizable Democratic wave with a A+ candidate in Kentucky to put a Democrat in that seat.

I don't know; during the last Democratic wave in 2008, McConnell came close to losing to what I assume was an unheralded opponent (Bruce Lunsford; I believe he was a businessman, though he later became LG).

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I think this Senate seat would be most winable if Mitch gets severely challenged by a Trumpist in the primaries, but he barely scrapes a Pyrrhic victory and much of the Republican base doesn't turnout or votes third party. We also need some A+ Democratic candidate as Virginia said.

[Don Vito Corleone]

I think this Senate seat would be most winable if Mitch gets severely challenged by a Trumpist in the primaries, but he barely scrapes a Pyrrhic victory and much of the Republican base doesn't turnout or votes third party. We also need some A+ Democratic candidate as Virginia said.

We need you Steve Beshear.

[Fudotei]

There's certainly no love lost between McConnell and the Tea Party/anti-establishment forces in Kentucky. Bevin seems to be a lot closer to Paul & Massie than McConnell, which provides a much stronger base for toying around with primarying the Senate Majority Leader than usual.

I doubt Bevin will try to primary again, and Paul's obviously not a candidate. Massie doesn't seem to like the concept of higher office. Suppose Jenean Hampton gave it a go?

Any attempt to primary McConnell will rely on how popular he is in state (not very) and how popular the other alternative is (decent?).

[Sir Mohamed]

If he runs, yes. But I think the old turtle will retire.

[Suburbia]

McConnell is not going anywhere. McConnell plays hardball. He is not going anywhere without a fight. That's the bottom line.

Yes, he will most likely face a serious primary challenge in 2020. Most likely.

Gov. Matt Bevin, Rep. Andy Barr, or Rep. Thomas Massie could all challenge McConnell, but it would be Lean McConnell as of now.