The Wave Continues: A 2020 Timeline

[NickCT]

Hey everyone! Here's my new 2020 Timeline. I wanted to continue telling the story of 2020 and while it isn't a full prediction, my outline from "Forward" became radically different. I think it was important to restart at this point of the campaign. Even since I began writing this timeline, de Blasio has dropped out. So, here goes, "The Wave Continues: A 2020 Timeline."

[NickCT]

DNC Announces November Debate Requirements
October 1, 2019 • POLITICO

DNC Chairman Tom Perez announced the requirements for the upcoming November debates. Candidates will need to have 195,000 individual donors and receive at least 3% in three different polls by DNC-approved pollsters. The polls must have been conducted after the September debate in order to count towards the threshold. So far, the following candidates are already qualified for November:

Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden
Senator Elizabeth Warren
Senator Bernie Sanders
Mayor Pete Buttigieg
Senator Kamala Harris
Mr. Andrew Yang

While Congressman Beto O’Rourke has the necessary number of donors, he is one poll shy of meeting the requirement. He is the next most likely. Behind him is Senator Cory Booker, who is just 5,000 donors and one poll shy of qualifying. Secretary Julián Castro has met the threshold but has no qualifying polls. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is about 10,000 donors shy but has no qualifying polls. Senator Amy Klobuchar is about 20,000 donors shy and has no qualifying polls. Tom Steyer has given no indication of how many donors he has but estimates put it around 145,000. He has not met any of the polling criteria.

The November debate is scheduled for November 20, 2019. Candidates must qualify for the debate by November 6th.

Today was also the final day to qualify for the October debate. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard fell one poll shy of entry into the debates but has insisted that her campaign will continue in hopes of reaching the November stage, which she says is within reach.

[morgankingsley]

I am curious to see how Booker is even still running with his lack of finances in the first place

[West_Midlander]

Good format. Will you do polling later on?

[NickCT]

I am curious to see how Booker is even still running with his lack of finances in the first place

I don't think it's fair to say his campaign "lacks finances" when you look at a lot of the competition who has made it work. He's running a scrappy, organizing-focused operation, but I don't think he's totally bankrupt.

[DeSantis4Prez]

I am curious to see how Booker is even still running with his lack of finances in the first place

I don't think it's fair to say his campaign "lacks finances" when you look at a lot of the competition who has made it work. He's running a scrappy, organizing-focused operation, but I don't think he's totally bankrupt.

He never said he was bankrupt, but he does have a point. Booker's finances right now aren't doing so well, but it's your TL.

[NickCT]

[In order to avoid minor discrepancies that get annoying, I'm going to fast forward to the Iowa Caucuses]

Tonight: The Democrats' Big Test
FEB. 3, 2020 ~ POLITICO MAGAZINE

Democrats in Iowa are about to determine the future of the Democratic Party. The likely winner of the caucuses remains unclear. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Senator Bernie Sanders could all plausibly emerge as the winner tonight. But what about the near-wins that may upend the race? A third-place finish by South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg could reignite a flame under his candidacy that has been waning since the fall. California Senator Kamala Harris could also change the dynamic of the race with a third-place finish this evening.

The main question tonight is less about any individual candidate and more about what message the Democratic voters of Iowa want to send tonight. Are they going to choose the mainstream? Strong nights for Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg would send the message that Democrats aren't actually buying the liberal policies of Warren and Sanders. However, a decisive victory by either one of them would likely propel the winner into a one-on-one battle with the former vice president. Though they've remained cordial, their supporters have battled.

Tonight's caucus is about the future of the Democratic Party. Who will they choose?

[NickCT]

WARREN WINS IOWA CAUCUSES



Iowa Caucuses
Elizabeth Warren ... 24% (16 delegates)
Joe Biden ... 22.4% (13 delegates)
Bernie Sanders ... 20% (12 delegates)
Pete Buttigieg ... 13.1%
Kamala Harris ... 8.2%
Cory Booker ... 4.3%
Tom Steyer ... 3.45%
Andrew Yang ... 3.05%
John Delaney ... 1.1%
Marianne Williamson ... 0.4%