NJ 11 Rodney Frelinghuysen

[jman123]

It's a suburban NJ district. How do you see this race going?

[Virginiá]

Frelinghuysen has been around forever, is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, and whose district is in expensive media market(s). He will be pretty difficult to unseat, and unless he retires, I doubt he goes down unless 2018 is a tidal wave.

It's certainly not impossible, but it would be difficult and not likely, imo.

[Pericles]

It's 2018. He's DOA.

[Tintrlvr]

This is easily the toughest of the competitive New Jersey seats for the Democrats. I doubt they put up a serious fight in 2018 given better prospects (NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-07) elsewhere in the state (and the need to defend NJ-05 and maybe Menendez if he runs for reelection), though 2020 might be possible.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He'll lose, but it'll be really close.

[Figueira]

I think he barely hangs on, but I could be wrong.

[Maxwell]

he's one of those congressman who have just BEEN there for a long time and nobody can really describe why other than maybe being from the most ancient political dynasty we have.

My guess is if this year gets really bad for Republicans he'll be gone, and it'll be close even if it's not that bad.

[Cactus Jack]

I wager he hangs on, for our sins. He's entrenched like a World War I battalion.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

My impression on the ground is that Frelinghuysen is DOA unless something changes fast. Mikie Sherrill is an incredible recruit for the DCCC and the seat is moving in the wrong direction. Frelinghuysen, while nothing like Trump, has been strangely mechanical in distancing himself from POTUS.

I'd like to see Jay Webber in this seat anyway, so I hope the Congressman retires rather than fight it out.

Seconding this. Frelinghuysen is making all the wrong moves to preserve himself (e.g. supporting the tax bill), and he hasn't run a legit campaign in decades. If he runs I think he ends up losing like Scott Garrett did, but IMO there's a very good chance he'll just call it quits.
After NJ-02, I think this is actually the best pickup opportunity for Dems here.

[LabourJersey]

My impression on the ground is that Frelinghuysen is DOA unless something changes fast. Mikie Sherrill is an incredible recruit for the DCCC and the seat is moving in the wrong direction. Frelinghuysen, while nothing like Trump, has been strangely mechanical in distancing himself from POTUS.

I'd like to see Jay Webber in this seat anyway, so I hope the Congressman retires rather than fight it out.

Seconding this. Frelinghuysen is making all the wrong moves to preserve himself (e.g. supporting the tax bill), and he hasn't run a legit campaign in decades. If he runs I think he ends up losing like Scott Garrett did, but IMO there's a very good chance he'll just call it quits.
After NJ-02, I think this is actually the best pickup opportunity for Dems here.

I "third" this. I would personally argue Frelinghuysen is more vulnerable than Lance because 1) Sherrill has a higher profile and more money than any NJ-7 candidate ATM (though this can change), and 2) Lance is simply a better politician who is more experienced with competitive elections than Rodney.