MD-Goucher Poll Shows Hogan (R) Safe For Now

[mds32]

Maryland Governor

Larry Hogan (44%)
Rushern Baker (31%)

Larry Hogan (44%)
Ben Jealous (31%)

Larry Hogan (45%)
Kevin Kamenetz (28%)

Larry Hogan (45%)
Rich Madaleno (27%)

Larry Hogan (46%)
Alec Ross (26%)

Larry Hogan (47%)
Jim Shea (27%)

Larry Hogan (45%)
Krish Vignarajah (25%)

Poll Link >>> https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/goucher-poll-1524576233.pdf

http://www.wbaltv.com/article/new-goucher-poll-shows-gov-larry-hogan-still-popular-among-marylanders/20002480

[KingSweden]

As of now, he’s definitely favored.

[Rhenna]

Safe R. Hogan's only a step down from Charlie Baker level safeness.

[Ebsy]

Yeah he's definitely vulnerable in a gigantic wave. His current numbers seem to be more of a function of name recognition than anything else.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I expect Hogan to hold on, but not by margins like this. I think he wins by less than 5%, and if Democratic turnout and enthusiasm is really high, he loses.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Has Hogan ever hit 50% in a poll? Ever? That doesn’t inspire much confidence.

There was one poll a month or two ago where he did, but in any case, the Dems have to win a supermajority of the undecideds to catch up even in this poll. This is Likely R.

[Gass3268]

I'll wait until the ad barrage starts before moving this up from Lean R.

[mds32]

That’s hardly safe. Hogan is obviously in trouble, and I’m not sure if he can perform such a tough balancing act in a state like this.

I can't. He's been doing the balancing act for 4 years just fine and you have seen that. Hence his approval rating. What we know is approval ratings are not always enough to save you.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hogan should win if he keeps his approvals up. He has to be very careful not to piss people off though, and he needs to reach out to black voters.

[RINO Tom]

That’s hardly safe. Hogan is obviously in trouble, and I’m not sure if he can perform such a tough balancing act in a state like this.

I can't. He's been doing the balancing act for 4 years just fine and you have seen that. Hence his approval rating. What we know is approval ratings are not always enough to save you.

This all doesn’t mean very much if the Democrats run effective attack ads against him, Republicans/Trump supporters stay home on election day and Hogan underperforms in Montgomery and Prince George’s County. I’m not saying this will be like VA in 2017, but he really can’t rest easy.

What is the evidence for the third one being especially likely?

[PragmaticPopulist]

That’s hardly safe. Hogan is obviously in trouble, and I’m not sure if he can perform such a tough balancing act in a state like this.

I can't. He's been doing the balancing act for 4 years just fine and you have seen that. Hence his approval rating. What we know is approval ratings are not always enough to save you.

This all doesn’t mean very much if the Democrats run effective attack ads against him, Republicans/Trump supporters stay home on election day and Hogan underperforms in Montgomery and Prince George’s County. I’m not saying this will be like VA in 2017, but he really can’t rest easy.

This pretty much. Hogan is smart to stay out of the news. But once Democrats point out some stuff like his feuds with unions and his seemingly anti-voting rights record, I think the race will tighten.

[Skye]

This is Lean R. Sure, it's Maryland, so we can never be too sure about his chances, but it would be criminal if we said he isn't favored right now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ugh, looks like Maryland is stuck with fat b*******'s brother again...

[Associate Justice PiT]

Has Hogan ever hit 50% in a poll? Ever? That doesn’t inspire much confidence.

     I was thinking the same thing. He has a big lead, but mid-40s is never a good place for an incumbent to be sitting. I will say he is easily favored, but not safe.

[Maxwell]

Hogan's gotta be worried about where those undecideds go. And will you look at that: Baker no longer holds the mantle of most electable candidate, or at least he no longer holds it alone!

[Virginiá]

Still amazing how loaded up the North/central east is with popular GOP governors, and with the potential to expand. It's a fine lesson that no statewide office is really unwinnable for a member of the minority party, even in a lopsidedly partisan state. And if they do win, it might even become impossible to dislodge them unless they retire or term out*


* Not that I think Hogan is impossible to defeat - I think he's probably the easiest, most realistic of the popular blue state Republican governors

[Virginiá]

Yeah, unless you go into office firing from the hip like Rauner did.

It is interesting though how the most popular governors from each party come from places where they are the minority party in that state. Baker and Hogan for the Grand Ole Perverts and Bullock and JBE for Dems

I can't speak to all the specifics, being an outside observer, but it seems like Baker/Hogan-types have some good personal brands while also not being overly socially conservative in their policy/campaigning. Being a savy politician is also necessary to avoid antagonizing the majority party voters while also avoiding traps laid by the legislature. Rauner pushed way too hard when he had no real leverage aside from the veto pen. Then he alienated conservatives with the abortion legislation he signed (although IL conservatives may be unreasonable in their expectations on this). I think Illinois really needs some meaningful changes that existing Democratic leadership might not be inclined to pursue, but Rauner's brute force method was wholly inadequate and politically unwise.

I'm curious how JBE has been doing, but he seems to share the inverse qualities for a successful blue state Republican. Socially conservative and not really rocking the boat too much.

[MT Treasurer]

Still amazing how loaded up the North/central east is with popular GOP governors, and with the potential to expand. It's a fine lesson that no statewide office is really unwinnable for a member of the minority party, even in a lopsidedly partisan state. And if they do win, it might even become impossible to dislodge them unless they retire or term out*


* Not that I think Hogan is impossible to defeat - I think he's probably the easiest, most realistic of the popular blue state Republican governors

Baker is the only Republican governor who is probably safe at this point, and that’s only because he’s basically a.... yeah. Sununu, Hogan and Scott could definitely still lose, though the latter would probably require a big wave and a very strong candidate. CT, RI and ME are Toss-ups at best for the GOP.

[Maxwell]

Still amazing how loaded up the North/central east is with popular GOP governors, and with the potential to expand. It's a fine lesson that no statewide office is really unwinnable for a member of the minority party, even in a lopsidedly partisan state. And if they do win, it might even become impossible to dislodge them unless they retire or term out*


* Not that I think Hogan is impossible to defeat - I think he's probably the easiest, most realistic of the popular blue state Republican governors

Yeah, unless you go into office firing from the hip like Rauner did.

It is interesting though how the most popular governors from each party come from places where they are the minority party in that state. Baker and Hogan for the Grand Ole Perverts and Bullock and JBE for Dems

Rauner campaigned on being Illinois' Scott Walker and then tried to govern like it. The reason that opposite party governors succeed in red or blue states is because they are either conciliatory with the other party or non-controversial or both. Rauner was none so he's now the most vulnerable Governor in the country. Meanwhile, JBE actively seeked the endorsement of members of the GOP in his bid for governor while Bullock has run a fairly competent ship. I don't hear anything about Baker unless it's drinking related and I don't really hear much from Hogan.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

There is absolutely no reason for someone who despises Trump to consider voting for Hogan. He has been buddying up to Trump a lot.

Rauner, Scott, and Baker are smart enough to avoid this, but Hogan not so much.