How long would this race take to call?
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  How long would this race take to call?
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Author Topic: How long would this race take to call?  (Read 543 times)
SnowLabrador
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« on: August 22, 2018, 10:28:56 AM »

In the Texas Senate race, how long, with these potential outcomes, would the race take to call once polls close at 8 PM Eastern, or 9 PM Eastern for Mountain time?

Scenario A: Cruz wins 52-46

Scenario B: Cruz wins 50-47

Scenario C: O'Rourke wins 49-48
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2018, 11:01:47 AM »

Wulfric will call it as soon as King County comes in
Wulfric Projection: Texas Senate

Ted Cruz
90%

Beto O'Rourke
10%

<1% of precincts reporting
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2018, 11:03:53 AM »

Scenario A, probably called by 11pm Eastern if not earlier. Scenario B, called by midnight Eastern. Scenario C, probably not called until the next day or later because a 1% margin is at least somewhat subject to late absentees, provisionals, etc.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2018, 11:06:29 AM »

Scenario A: About an hour
Scenario B: 2-3 hours
Scenario C: Not on election night, could take days/weeks depending on how rounded those numbers are

These are just educated guesses though, I'm not actually sure how fast TX counts their votes.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2018, 03:50:37 PM »

When Trump won by 9, it took about an hour or two after closing to call it iirc. So probably 2-3 for the first, around midnight or a little after for the second, and late / next morning for the third (assuming it is a clean 1% victory and not a nail biter .5% or something that might be subject to recounts).
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2018, 09:26:31 PM »

2 hours

4 hours

Two to three days later.
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