How long would Cameron had stayed in office if voters chose to remain in EU

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would he have stayed until the 2020 election or resigned before that and let May take over in 2018 or 2019

[Chickpeas]

Cameron said he would serve a full second term but realistically he would have had to step down at least 6 months before the 2020 General Election in order for the party to elect a successor. He couldn't serve right up until just before the election as there would need to be time for a party leadership battle to replace him.

I suspect he would have announced his intention to resign for the summer recess of 2019, with the Conservatives electing a leader over the summer and Cameron resigning once that person was in place.

It might well not have been May who won the leadership under such a scenario. Without the daunting prospect of Brexit many more candidates might have thrown their hat in the ring.  George Osborne was widely seen as a leading contender to succeed Cameron. His political fate was largely tied to Cameron as they were so close but if Cameron leaves office on a high it may well be Osborne who succeeds him. Boris Johnson probably would run too. There may also be a 'next generation' candidate especially if Cameron were to promote fresh faces to the cabinet in his last years as PM.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cameron said he would serve a full second term but realistically he would have had to step down at least 6 months before the 2020 General Election in order for the party to elect a successor. He couldn't serve right up until just before the election as there would need to be time for a party leadership battle to replace him.

I suspect he would have announced his intention to resign for the summer recess of 2019, with the Conservatives electing a leader over the summer and Cameron resigning once that person was in place.

It might well not have been May who won the leadership under such a scenario. Without the daunting prospect of Brexit many more candidates might have thrown their hat in the ring.  George Osborne was widely seen as a leading contender to succeed Cameron. His political fate was largely tied to Cameron as they were so close but if Cameron leaves office on a high it may well be Osborne who succeeds him. Boris Johnson probably would run too. There may also be a 'next generation' candidate especially if Cameron were to promote fresh faces to the cabinet in his last years as PM.

Can Cameron do this


Say he will resign on this date(Say the date would be the day the election campaign begins) and the party holds a leadership election ahead of time to see who succeeds him on that day

[Former President tack50]

Alternatively, why couldn't Cameron simply choose to run for reelection in 2020? (or earlier if he feels a snap election is a good idea)

I could see him staying in office until say, 2025; winning the 2020 election with a better campaign than May did in 2017, plus no Brexit to screw everything up.

Beyond that I guess the British people will be tired of Tory rule and elect Labour "by default".

[cp]

Cameron promised during the 2015 campaign that he would only serve one more term. He could have broken that promise, of course, but it's unlikely he would have been popular enough (even within his own party!) to get away with it.

Cameron said he would serve a full second term but realistically he would have had to step down at least 6 months before the 2020 General Election in order for the party to elect a successor. He couldn't serve right up until just before the election as there would need to be time for a party leadership battle to replace him.

I suspect he would have announced his intention to resign for the summer recess of 2019, with the Conservatives electing a leader over the summer and Cameron resigning once that person was in place.

It might well not have been May who won the leadership under such a scenario. Without the daunting prospect of Brexit many more candidates might have thrown their hat in the ring.  George Osborne was widely seen as a leading contender to succeed Cameron. His political fate was largely tied to Cameron as they were so close but if Cameron leaves office on a high it may well be Osborne who succeeds him. Boris Johnson probably would run too. There may also be a 'next generation' candidate especially if Cameron were to promote fresh faces to the cabinet in his last years as PM.

Can Cameron do this


Say he will resign on this date(Say the date would be the day the election campaign begins) and the party holds a leadership election ahead of time to see who succeeds him on that day

There's no law forbidding him from doing it, but it would be inconsiderate and possibly damaging to his successor if he did. The incoming PM would have virtually no time to prove themselves in the role: passing a piece of popular legislation, seeing off a minor crisis, choosing a Cabinet to give voters an indication of their judgment and the overall direction of the party under their leadership. Without those things this hypothetical new PM would have to hope that they proved themselves in an election, which as May found out in 2017 is a rather risky venture.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

His authority was very badly hurt during the brexit campaign, enough that even a win would have caused him to either be ousted or forced to prematurely fall on his sword; if that was the case BoJo, whose gambit would have been successful, would probably challenge, and probably win.

[Zinneke]

Think he lost the party when he *only* secured a 10 seat majority (because Tories will only really respect you if you trounce the opposition) and when he went to Brussels and came back with very little that wasn't already acquis communautaire.

Another interesting scenario is if he had stayed on after Brexit was voted.

[Santander]

Think he lost the party when he *only* secured a 10 seat majority (because Tories will only really respect you if you trounce the opposition) and when he went to Brussels and came back with very little that wasn't already acquis communautaire.

That is how parliamentary politics works, yes.

[EPG]

His authority was very badly hurt during the brexit campaign, enough that even a win would have caused him to either be ousted or forced to prematurely fall on his sword; if that was the case BoJo, whose gambit would have been successful, would probably challenge, and probably win.

I agree with this, except that an unrealistically strong win like 60% Remain would have protected him.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Think he lost the party when he *only* secured a 10 seat majority (because Tories will only really respect you if you trounce the opposition) and when he went to Brussels and came back with very little that wasn't already acquis communautaire.

Another interesting scenario is if he had stayed on after Brexit was voted.

The latter scenario would be very predictable ouster. You can't lead a cabinet in which you have no authority, you can't lead a party where you so are clearly out of favour in both the minds of the membership and the parliamentarians and you certainly can't lead a country in which you've humiliated and undermined yourself so completely.

As I understand it, it is harder to declare a Tory leadership campaign than before, but he would have seen the immediate resignation of all Leavers and soft remainers from cabinet, and a vote of no confidence.

[Zinneke]

Think he lost the party when he *only* secured a 10 seat majority (because Tories will only really respect you if you trounce the opposition) and when he went to Brussels and came back with very little that wasn't already acquis communautaire.

Another interesting scenario is if he had stayed on after Brexit was voted.

The latter scenario would be very predictable ouster. You can't lead a cabinet in which you have no authority, you can't lead a party where you so are clearly out of favour in both the minds of the membership and the parliamentarians and you certainly can't lead a country in which you've humiliated and undermined yourself so completely.

As I understand it, it is harder to declare a Tory leadership campaign than before, but he would have seen the immediate resignation of all Leavers and soft remainers from cabinet, and a vote of no confidence.

But didnt high profile Leavers actually want him to stay on for roughly the same reason as they currently have not deposed May - didnt want to take the political bullet that could end their career. Johnson and Gove released a statement just before votes starting coming in backing Cameron. I know its worth the paper its written on in the Conservative party, but still...

[EPG]

Important to remember that after a Remain vote, Ukip would now be polling at least 20%, mainly from Tory leave voters, and possibly 30% with the prospect of winning the next election.

Think he lost the party when he *only* secured a 10 seat majority (because Tories will only really respect you if you trounce the opposition) and when he went to Brussels and came back with very little that wasn't already acquis communautaire.

Another interesting scenario is if he had stayed on after Brexit was voted.

The latter scenario would be very predictable ouster. You can't lead a cabinet in which you have no authority, you can't lead a party where you so are clearly out of favour in both the minds of the membership and the parliamentarians and you certainly can't lead a country in which you've humiliated and undermined yourself so completely.

As I understand it, it is harder to declare a Tory leadership campaign than before, but he would have seen the immediate resignation of all Leavers and soft remainers from cabinet, and a vote of no confidence.

But didnt high profile Leavers actually want him to stay on for roughly the same reason as they currently have not deposed May - didnt want to take the political bullet that could end their career.

But that's because today, they would have to deliver Brexit, whereas if they didn't have to, it wouldn't end their career, but strengthen it.