Is WI-06 becoming competitive?

[Scottholes 2.0]

It's still a heavily Republican district, but Republican Glen Grothman won 55 percent of the vote compared to 57 in the past two elections. Could anyone see this district voting D in the future if Ozaukee County continues to trend Democratic? As the WI electoral math becomes increasingly limited to Milwaukee and Madison, it would be awesome for Dems to eventually pick up WI-06 because Ron Kind's district will only get redder.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nah, Ozaukee is the only thing keeping it from trending Republican. The district is actually almost as Republican as its neighbor to the south, WI-05.

[TJ in Oregon]

A drop from 57% to 55% under very different national circumstances and against a much stronger opponent doesn't portend any real shift leftward. As Elections Guy said, apart from Ozaukee County, WI-6 isn't really trending leftward. With its demographics, largely smaller cities and fairly working class, I don't see it moving leftward with the current national paradigm. IMO the pathway for a Dem winning WI-6 is by winning Manitowoc, Winnebago, and Columbia, breaking roughly even in Sheboygan, and keeping R margins down elsewhere. That doesn't seem very likely right now, absent a scandal.

[Brittain33]

I think this is going to be like IA-4 or Vern Buchanan's district in Florida where a bad incumbent brings the district into the range of competitiveness but it's just too Republican to ever flip.

[136or142]

Sensenbrenner's suburban Milwaukee district is probably the best pick up opportunity for Democrats, but only when he retires.

[Young Conservative]

Sensenbrenner's suburban Milwaukee district is probably the best pick up opportunity for Democrats, but only when he retires.

...that's the most Republican district in Wisconsin.

[AudmanOut]

Sensenbrenner's suburban Milwaukee district is probably the best pick up opportunity for Democrats, but only when he retires.

...that's the most Republican district in Wisconsin.

Soon enough it will become the most democratic because muh trends.

[TJ in Oregon]

Sensenbrenner's suburban Milwaukee district is probably the best pick up opportunity for Democrats, but only when he retires.

...that's the most Republican district in Wisconsin.

Soon enough it will become the most democratic because muh trends.

I mean, Leah Vukmir won Waukesha County by only 23.6% while getting demolished.

Walker won it by 33.6% this year.
Trump won it by 26.7% in 2016.
RonJon won it 37.7% in 2016.
Walker won it by 45.7% in 2014.
Romney won it by 34.4% in 2012.
Thompson won it by 35.0% in 2012.
Walker won it by 45.1% in the 2012 recall.
Walker won it by 43.5% in 2010.
RonJon won it by 42.6% in 2010.
McCain won it by 26.7% in 2008.

[TJ in Oregon]

Oh and Herb Kohl won Waukesha County by 4.5% in 2006

[Adam Griffin]

This district was one of the first that pundits began sounding the alarm about back in 2017 due to the bad fundraising figures for the incumbent and other similar indicators, but its performance for Democrats in 2018 was piss-poor relative to that. I'd say if it ever does flip in a current or similar incarnation, it'll be because of the specific incumbent and probably a fluke at best.

[136or142]

Sensenbrenner's suburban Milwaukee district is probably the best pick up opportunity for Democrats, but only when he retires.

...that's the most Republican district in Wisconsin.

I stand corrected.

[lfromnj]

there really wasn't a wave in Wisconsin. It basically acted like Ohio shifted 6 points compared to Michigan and Pennsylvania which were much better overall.

The longterm trends in WI aren't that good either. PA has good long term trends while MI is a wait and watch.

[Gass3268]

Gut feeling is that this district as constructed now won't survive 2021 redistricting. The United States District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin (Obama-Obama-Carter makeup) will in all likelihood draw the next map. I imagine there are going to be some fundamental changes coming to how things are drawn and WI-01, WI-03 and WI-06 seem like prime targets for change. 

[lfromnj]

Gut feeling is that this district as constructed now won't survive 2021 redistricting. The United States District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin (Obama-Obama-Carter makeup) will in all likelihood draw the next map. I imagine there are going to be some fundamental changes coming to how things are drawn and WI-01, WI-03 and WI-06 seem like prime targets for change. 

does the make up even matter for the court?
I highly doubt a court made map would be an active gerrymander.

[Gass3268]

Gut feeling is that this district as constructed now won't survive 2021 redistricting. The United States District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin (Obama-Obama-Carter makeup) will in all likelihood draw the next map. I imagine there are going to be some fundamental changes coming to how things are drawn and WI-01, WI-03 and WI-06 seem like prime targets for change. 

does the make up even matter for the court?
I highly doubt a court made map would be an active gerrymander.

Of course it won't be an active gerrymander, however it could mean the difference between a no/little change map or a fundamental redraw like Pennslyvania.

[Politician]

there really wasn't a wave in Wisconsin. It basically acted like Ohio shifted 6 points compared to Michigan and Pennsylvania which were much better overall.

The longterm trends in WI aren't that good either. PA has good long term trends while MI is a wait and watch.

>Democrats beat Scott Walker and sweep statewide offices
>"it wasn't a wave in Wisconsin"

[136or142]

there really wasn't a wave in Wisconsin. It basically acted like Ohio shifted 6 points compared to Michigan and Pennsylvania which were much better overall.

The longterm trends in WI aren't that good either. PA has good long term trends while MI is a wait and watch.

>Democrats beat Scott Walker and sweep statewide offices
>"it wasn't a wave in Wisconsin"

I understand Wisconsin is gerrymandered, however, the Democrats won the aggregate House vote in Wisconsin 53.4-45.8% and still lost 5-3 (the lack of a Republican candidate in the Madison based district would not alter this much.)  The problem seems to be the Democrats are very strong in Milwaukee (mostly the city of Milwaukee, I gather) and Madison and aren't all that strong elsewhere.


These are the Wisconsin Aggregate U.S House results

Total votes: 2,562,097
Democrats: 1,367,492, 53.4%
Republican: 1,172,964, 45.8%
Other: 21,641

[Xing]

It'll probably be more Republican than WI-05 in the future (not saying WI-05 will be Democratic any time soon, simply that it's not as Republican as it used to be.)

[Mr. Illini]

2018 was actually a poor performance for Dems here. Kohl was an excellent candidate and it was a Dem wave year. 57 to 55% is not good given the circumstances.

[136or142]

2018 was actually a poor performance for Dems here. Kohl was an excellent candidate and it was a Dem wave year. 57 to 55% is not good given the circumstances.

I wonder if any environmentalists thought of coal when considering voting for Kohl and subconsciously thought "I can't vote for that."

[TJ in Oregon]

Gut feeling is that this district as constructed now won't survive 2021 redistricting. The United States District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin (Obama-Obama-Carter makeup) will in all likelihood draw the next map. I imagine there are going to be some fundamental changes coming to how things are drawn and WI-01, WI-03 and WI-06 seem like prime targets for change. 

Do you think a Court map would really change WI-6 that much? A dem court map would probably try to make WI-1 more democratic and likely try to shore up WI-3, but doesn't it seem likely that there will still be a district centered between Milwaukee and Green Bay that will almost inevitably end up Republican leaning?