Rate Blaine County, Montana

[christian peralta]

Blaine is a swing county, voting for the winner of every election since 1916 with the exception of 1988.

Year   Republican   Democratic   Third parties
2016   47.2% 1,268   44.8% 1,202   8.0% 214
2012   41.2% 1,178   56.5% 1,616   2.3% 65
2008   38.9% 1,139   58.2% 1,702   2.9% 85
2004   51.5% 1,424   47.0% 1,300   1.6% 44
2000   51.1% 1,410   45.2% 1,246   3.7% 103
1996   39.0% 1,127   45.5% 1,316   15.6% 450
1992   31.9% 971   44.5% 1,355   23.6% 720
1988   48.2% 1,402   50.1% 1,460   1.7% 50
1984   57.9% 1,736   41.0% 1,229   1.1% 32
1980   56.3% 1,686   37.0% 1,107   6.7% 202
1976   49.3% 1,349   49.5% 1,356   1.2% 34
1972   54.4% 1,513   41.4% 1,151   4.1% 115
1968   48.6% 1,291   45.1% 1,198   6.3% 166
1964   35.6% 961   64.5% 1,742   0.0% 0
1960   44.9% 1,290   54.6% 1,569   0.6% 17

[Tintrlvr]

The county is trending more Native American, and its voting patterns are largely driven by the balance between heavily Democratic Native American voters and heavily Republican white voters. Native Americans had quite poor turnout in 2016 and did have a bit of a swing to Trump, but I expect most Democratic candidates will be better-suited to doing well among Native voters than Clinton was (and at least some tribes had anti-Clinton biases from their experiences in the Bill Clinton years, e.g.), especially non-white candidates like Harris and Booker, especially as Native American voters to be strongly anti-incumbent. Tilt D but maybe Lean D is more appropriate.

[Lognog]

The county is trending more Native American, and its voting patterns are largely driven by the balance between heavily Democratic Native American voters and heavily Republican white voters. Native Americans had quite poor turnout in 2016 and did have a bit of a swing to Trump, but I expect most Democratic candidates will be better-suited to doing well among Native voters than Clinton was (and at least some tribes had anti-Clinton biases from their experiences in the Bill Clinton years, e.g.), especially non-white candidates like Harris and Booker, especially as Native American voters to be strongly anti-incumbent. Tilt D but maybe Lean D is more appropriate.

While turnout is important, the fact that the Republicans have consolidated the white vote, especially in places like this have a huge effect on the county