Any senate incumbents which are guaranteed to lose?

[coolface1572]

I see no chance of Cory Gardner or Doug Jones getting re-elected. (Unless Roy Moore is nominated again.)

Any other incumbents who are guaranteed to lose? Or very likely to against certain challengers?

[Roll Roons]

For 2020, it's pretty much just those two. McSally, Tillis, Collins, Peters, Ernst, Perdue and the appointee in Georgia are all possibilities, but none of them are anywhere close to DOA like Gardner or Jones.

[MarkD]

None of them are guaranteed to lose. Incumbency still has its advantages, so the best you can say with a race like Gardner v. Hickenlooper is just that it is Likely D, not Safe D.

[Xing]

Gardner and Jones are pretty much guaranteed to lose, with Jones being closer to absolutely DOA than Gardner. Any others at least have a chance of winning, and most are favored.

[😥]

Gardner and Jones for 2020

[Yellowhammer]

Jones has a 99.9% chance of defeat, Gardner a 95% chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins is very suspect to a loss

[Gracile]

Gardner and Jones are pretty much the only incumbents guaranteed to lose, the other vulnerable incumbents' fate will be determined entirely by external factors (national environment, the presidential race in their state, etc.).

[2016]

Unlike the DCCC did for their House Candidates in 2018 the DSCC has done a very poor job for 2020. They always relying too much IMO on recruiting former Governors or Senators.

Feingold, Bayh, Strickland = They all lost in 2016.

Now they're trying Hickenlooper who barely squeaked by his own Election in 2014. Triple LOL. He might win in 2020 but it won't be a blowout like everyone is predicting.

Most of the Pundits said Ron Johnson was a GONER in WI in 2016 and he wasn't.

[Frenchrepublican]

Jones and Gardner are probably DOA next year

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Unlike the DCCC did for their House Candidates in 2018 the DSCC has done a very poor job for 2020. They always relying too much IMO on recruiting former Governors or Senators.

Feingold, Bayh, Strickland = They all lost in 2016.

Now they're trying Hickenlooper who barely squeaked by his own Election in 2014. Triple LOL. He might win in 2020 but it won't be a blowout like everyone is predicting.

Most of the Pundits said Ron Johnson was a GONER in WI in 2016 and he wasn't.

Important to point out that Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland all lost in states where Trump was victorious.  Granted, Johnson surprised the polls and pundits.  

I don't think there's much "might-win" for Hickenlooper in Colorado.  It's a state that has been rapidly sliding away from the GOP.  And if he was still elected governor by ~3.5% during a red wave year, then I don't see what chance that Gardner has in 2020 unless it's a massive GOP blowout nationwide.  

To answer the question, I'll go along with pretty much everybody else: Gardner and Jones.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unlike the DCCC did for their House Candidates in 2018 the DSCC has done a very poor job for 2020. They always relying too much IMO on recruiting former Governors or Senators.

Feingold, Bayh, Strickland = They all lost in 2016.

Now they're trying Hickenlooper who barely squeaked by his own Election in 2014. Triple LOL. He might win in 2020 but it won't be a blowout like everyone is predicting.

Most of the Pundits said Ron Johnson was a GONER in WI in 2016 and he wasn't.

No, the Dems are expanding the map, just like they did in 2008, I know blue avatars dont like to hear this, but Collins, McSally, Ernst and Tillis are gonna lose next year. Dems can expand on that majority winning more states aa with KS and AK. Dems have done a fine job in recruiting..

2016 was a different animal,  Obama did a fine job in balancing budget, voters elected Trump to make things better, he failed.

[Skill and Chance]

Jones.

Gardner is probably at a 20%/80% disadvantage but it isn't guaranteed.  If, for example, Trump got a Clinton 1996 style reelection and flipped CO, Gardner would win.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maybe Manchin if he runs again in 2024. What's your opinion ?

[Lechasseur]

Jones is.

Gardner all but is.

All the other incumbents have at least a decent chance of winning.