Describe a Hillary Clinton/Ron DeSantis supporter
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 26, 2024, 04:05:04 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Describe a Hillary Clinton/Ron DeSantis supporter
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Describe a Hillary Clinton/Ron DeSantis supporter  (Read 1613 times)
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,262
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 09, 2018, 04:43:00 PM »

MEGA HPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2018, 04:43:59 PM »

Cubans
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2018, 04:44:23 PM »

Logged
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,330
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2018, 04:59:37 PM »

Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2018, 07:10:12 PM »

Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,584


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2018, 07:21:16 PM »

Logged
Tartarus Sauce
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,359
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2018, 11:10:54 PM »

Logged
History505
Guest
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2018, 11:16:24 PM »

Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,782


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2018, 10:11:45 PM »


Not as much as you would expect:
2016: Trump +13 among Cubans (Exit poll)
2018: DeSantis +17 (FOX Voter Analysis, not asked on Exit Poll

Compare that to Rubio +37 in 2016, is where you see the massive difference.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2018, 11:33:30 PM »

Given that there was such a high turnout and therefore relatively little difference between the 2016 and 2018 electorate, the above answer ("Cubans") is probably more accurate than it would be usually. Considering that virtually every county save for Miami-Dade (which swung like 9 points to DeSantis) either swung to Gillum when compared to Clinton or barely swung to DeSantis compared to Trump (and of the latter, almost all are sparsely populated), it's not out of the question to suggest that a majority of these voters statewide came from Miami-Dade.

Furthermore, in the other counties that did swing to DeSantis, geography plus broader trends we saw outside of FL in 2018 would suggest that lower black and/or non-Cuban Latino turnout were likely big factors in their swings.

Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,489


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2018, 12:02:04 AM »

Aside from some Latinx voters, there also appears to be a substantial number of black women who flipped from Clinton to DeSantis (Exit polls indicated that Clinton won 87-6 vs. Gillum's 82-18 among this group). I still haven't figured out the specific characteristics of this particular group, though.
Logged
Tartarus Sauce
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,359
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2018, 01:24:41 AM »

Aside from some Latinx voters, there also appears to be a substantial number of black women who flipped from Clinton to DeSantis (Exit polls indicated that Clinton won 87-6 vs. Gillum's 82-18 among this group). I still haven't figured out the specific characteristics of this particular group, though.

Oh that's easy, the exit poll was garbage.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2018, 02:08:39 AM »

Aside from some Latinx voters, there also appears to be a substantial number of black women who flipped from Clinton to DeSantis (Exit polls indicated that Clinton won 87-6 vs. Gillum's 82-18 among this group). I still haven't figured out the specific characteristics of this particular group, though.

Oh that's easy, the exit poll was garbage.

Yeah, based on the swings in the Panhandle and the ridiculous crosstabs, I'd say that the exit poll probably came to the conclusion that there were more black voters than there really were, which would make (at least in the adjusted exit polls) it seem like more black voters went for DeSantis than really did. Even if that wasn't the case, exit polling for black voters in FL (especially when you get down to analyzing it by gender) are going to have much larger margins of error than in the state immediately to its north.
Logged
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,994


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2018, 05:03:48 PM »

I would imagine old mainline Jewish retirees for whom BDS is a red line were a component as well.
Logged
Don Vito Corleone
bruhgmger2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,269
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2018, 05:21:42 PM »

I would imagine old mainline Jewish retirees for whom BDS is a red line were a component as well.
Was Gillum not pro-Israel? I had gotten that impression.
Logged
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,994


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2018, 03:48:27 PM »

I would imagine old mainline Jewish retirees for whom BDS is a red line were a component as well.
Was Gillum not pro-Israel? I had gotten that impression.

Had tight ties to the Dream Defenders, a notoriously pro-BDS group, and had hedged on Israel previously. He shifted to the center on the issue for the campaign, but many people didn't trust him. And given the actions of Omar and Tlaib, actively lying to get elected, I can see why.
Logged
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2018, 11:39:01 AM »

Logged
AudmanOut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2018, 11:27:27 PM »

Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.236 seconds with 11 queries.