Here is my attempt to synthesize the info from the
Tea Leaves Thread into a timeline of when the remaining 2020 Dems will announce their decision on whether to run for president or not. I’m counting an exploratory committee as the same as an actual campaign, since legally, they’re basically the same thing. If you have an exploratory committee, then you’re running for president. So I’m not going to try to guess when, say, Warren converts her exploratory committee into a “real” campaign, since it doesn’t make any difference.
Please note that the following is a combination of what the candidates have said on the record and anonymous sources reporting through the media. Obviously, it’s all subject to change, since the candidates can change their minds whenever they like.
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Booker: Will reportedly announce something this month.
Biden: Claimed he’d decide in January, but I’m skeptical. For that matter, the NY Times said on Jan. 6th that Biden had told his inner circle that he
will likely make a decision within the next two weeks. But that was more than two weeks ago, and we haven’t heard anything. Also, a week ago,
the AP said that Biden is still in the “meeting with aides” phase, and isn’t doing anything to staff up, like the others did before they launched their campaigns. So maybe Biden will keep us waiting for a while.
Buttigieg: Recently hinted at announcing something in January. Though he has a book coming out on Feb. 12th, so he might instead do the book tour, and then announce a couple of weeks later, in late February.
Bloomberg: There was just a story today suggesting that he’ll announce his decision “within a month”, so I guess some time by the end of the third week of February, or so.
Inslee and Klobuchar: Both hinted at announcing something soon. Inslee suggested that he might say something in weeks, not months. And Klobuchar said she’s getting close to a decision, and said that her family’s on board. So maybe February for both of them, if not late January?
Brown, Garcettti, Hickenlooper, McAuliffe, and Merkley: All of them have given a timeline that’s either “March” or “by the end of the first quarter”, which is of course functionally equivalent to “March”. Maybe one or two of them will declare on the last day of March to maximize the share of their post-launch fundraising to go into the second quarter….same thing Warren did with the first quarter.
Swalwell: He recently said “Early spring at the latest”, which I guess would be March or April.
Bullock: Reportedly won’t announce until the end of the 2019 Montana legislative session, which ends on May 1st, so I guess he’s waiting until May.
O’Rourke and Sanders: Reportedly both will not announce until “February at the earliest”. But that’s the *earliest* they’d announce. When’s the latest? I have no idea.
Everyone else: No idea. de Blasio recently said that he was “just beginning the process” of pondering a 2020 run, so it might be a while for him. But with the debates starting in June, I’m assuming that everyone will announce by Memorial Day.
