States by difficulty level
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Author Topic: States by difficulty level  (Read 461 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: May 22, 2019, 03:18:21 PM »

Maybe someone can point out how easy/difficult it is to win each state in an election for the Republicans and Democrats.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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E: -0.13, S: -0.87

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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2019, 03:44:35 PM »



Green: Tossup state
30%: Competitive but favors in-party
50%: Winnable for out-party but it's an uphill climb
70%: Winnable for out-party only at statewide level and under specific conditions
90%: Completely unwinnable for out-party
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Progressive Pessimist
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United States


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E: -6.71, S: -7.65

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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2019, 06:25:10 PM »



Green: Tossup state
30%: Competitive but favors in-party
50%: Winnable for out-party but it's an uphill climb
70%: Winnable for out-party only at statewide level and under specific conditions
90%: Completely unwinnable for out-party

That looks fairly comparable to a 2020 ratings map. Florida isn't blue enough, by the way. Otherwise it looks about right to me. 
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2019, 06:32:20 PM »



Green: Tossup state
30%: Competitive but favors in-party
50%: Winnable for out-party but it's an uphill climb
70%: Winnable for out-party only at statewide level and under specific conditions
90%: Completely unwinnable for out-party

That looks fairly comparable to a 2020 ratings map. Florida isn't blue enough, by the way. Otherwise it looks about right to me. 

It totally fits the 30% shade; "Competitive but favors in-party"
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2019, 09:13:44 AM »



Green: Tossup state
30%: Competitive but favors in-party
50%: Winnable for out-party but it's an uphill climb
70%: Winnable for out-party only at statewide level and under specific conditions
90%: Completely unwinnable for out-party

That looks fairly comparable to a 2020 ratings map. Florida isn't blue enough, by the way. Otherwise it looks about right to me. 

It totally fits the 30% shade; "Competitive but favors in-party"

I would have Iowa a darker shade at least until I see more polls from there. Maybe it will switch with Florida a year from now as more information becomes apparent later in the cycle.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2019, 05:32:59 PM »

I'm talking about "easy", "medium", "hard", "very hard".
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