Why Do we Always Try to Predict Things?

[Kevin]

This issue has stated before here on the Atlas but why do we always try to predict political events/elections.

For example, in the year 2001 after Bush has just been elected who could have predicted that:

.That eight years later the next President would be a skinny black guy from Chicago with the middle name "Hussien who was elected to the Senate less than four years earlier. Who would then go on to edge out the vaunted establishment favorite Hillary Clinton in a highly contested election before winning the general in a landslide over a well-liked moderate and war hero?

.That a multiple divorcee, liberal elitist, reality TV Star would become a conservative icon/white working class hero who would deal a political hammer to both the Bush and Clinton dynasties as well as be elected President against all the odds.

. That a sitting Senator and former Governor widely lauded in conservative activist circles would be defeated for reelection by an obscure neo-confederate writer.

So I guess my point is, why do we always try to predict events so far out or even the next election with such certainty? Especially since we don't know what will happen next month or even tomorrow?

[Mr. Smith]

This issue has stated before here on the Atlas but why do we always try to predict political events/elections.

For example, in the year 2001 after Bush has just been elected who could have predicted that:

.That eight years later the next President would be a skinny black guy from Chicago with the middle name "Hussien who was elected to the Senate less than four years earlier. Who would then go on to edge out the vaunted establishment favorite Hillary Clinton in a highly contested election before winning the general in a landslide over a well-liked moderate and war hero?

.That a multiple divorcee, liberal elitist, reality TV Star would become a conservative icon/white working class hero who would deal a political hammer to both the Bush and Clinton dynasties as well as be elected President against all the odds.

. That a sitting Senator and former Governor widely lauded in conservative activist circles would be defeated for reelection by an obscure neo-confederate writer.

So I guess my point is, why do we always try to predict events so far out or even the next election with such certainty? Especially since we don't know what will happen next month or even tomorrow?

'Cuz it's fun.

[Roll Roons]

That a sitting Senator and former Governor widely lauded in conservative activist circles would be defeated for reelection by an obscure neo-confederate writer.

Who is this referring to?

And it is pretty fun to try and predict things in politics, because of how unpredictable it is.

[Agonized-Statism]

'Cuz it's fun.

[cvparty]

because we have nothing to do in the present

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact, the Tories or conservative party, has been empowered 16/20 elections, and all they have done is cut entitlements, and unable to eradicate poverty, which black and Latinos represent: 70% of prison population and 70% of homelessness and 40 million are in poverty.

Predicting the future and eradicating poverty, is the goal, and utopia, and no one here, knows how it will end. Through predictions, each party offer different solutions. Democrats are the socialistic party.

[One Term Floridian]

That a sitting Senator and former Governor widely lauded in conservative activist circles would be defeated for reelection by an obscure neo-confederate writer.

Who is this referring to?

And it is pretty fun to try and predict things in politics, because of how unpredictable it is.

I think he's referring to Jim Webb (D-VA) who narrowly edged Senator and former Governor George Allen in Virginia's 2006 Senate election. I believe Allen was widely expected to announce a run in the Republican presidential primary the following year but the Senate defeat obviously derailed that.

[brucejoel99]

'Cuz it's fun.

[morgankingsley]

Because we're more bored than we want to admit

[Ilhan Apologist]

Because we hate uncertainty, and now more than ever before.

[Epaminondas]

The same reason some people smoke weed: to provide the fleeting illusion of control over our lives.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Hopefully in five years we'll be able to ask:

How did a gay Christian mayor of a small city with "Butt" as the first four letters of his last name defeat an antigay fundamentalist to become President?

[dw93]

'Cuz it's fun.

[Alben Barkley]

Hopefully in five years we'll be able to ask:

How did a gay Christian mayor of a small city with "Butt" as the first four letters of his last name defeat an antigay fundamentalist to become President?

Nope, because that probably means Trump gets re-elected and Pence runs in 2024.

Anyway, to answer the OP, I like to try to predict things because, well, yeah, it’s fun. And frankly I think I’m better at it than a lot of pundits who get paid to do it. (e.g. I called Trump winning the primaries way before most pundits did, and thought his odds of winning the GE were way higher than most did as well.) And I’ve even made a little money off it with PredictIt.

But I usually don’t try to predict things way off in advance, because like you pointed out things can and do change dramatically and unpredictably over the course of a few years, being thrown wildly off the path that seemed most likely at one time. Because of some massive, earth-shattering event like 9/11 or some lightning-in-a-bottle moment like Obama’s campaign or other such monkey wrenches. Those two things alone led to a wildly different world in 2010 than most anyone would have predicted in 2000. And in the past decade, the rising populism around the world has taken things in yet another totally different direction than you would have thought based on the trajectory things seemed to be heading in 2010. Who would have thought the UK would actually leave the EU? Who would have thought the party of George W. Bush and John McCain would be led by a reality TV star who denounces them at every opportunity?

So you can’t really form a clear guess of what might be onshore until you get a little closer to the shoreline. When I do try it anyway, I’m aware that I’m wildly speculating and that just about any other possibility could be just as likely as the one I’m predicting.

That being said, there have been a few instances when things have turned out pretty much as expected, periods of relative stability where there aren’t too many surprises. The 50’s, for instance. Not much seemed to change dramatically from 1950 to 1960 for most people in this country at least. But compare that to the next decade? You take the average American from January 1960 and drop him into January 1970 and he’ll probably think he was several decades farther down the line. Because the 60’s were a period of extreme and rapid change and volatility. Whether or not things will remain predictable over a given period of time is itself pretty unpredictable.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

'Cuz it's fun.