Katrina's effects on Louisiana Politics

[MassBlueDog]

Before Hurricane Katrina hit the state, Louisiana was a lean red state, similar to a state like Ohio today.  However, after the hurricane, with the exodus of people leaving, New Orleans rapidly shifted to become the home of Bobby Jindal, and is now one of the most Republican states.  How would elections have changed (specifically in Louisiana) if Katrina never hit?

[brucejoel99]

Katrina really devastated a lot of low-income & African-American communities in the southern part of the state. Many left their homes & some never returned to LA. While Katrina not occurring wouldn't be enough to make LA a non-red state in & of itself, I'd say that it'd be more competitive in subsequent elections than was actually the case, esp. if the Democrats nominate Obama or somebody else who can really mobilize the African-American vote. Another effect of this may also be to help stave off the LA Democratic Party's decline in state & local elections (remember, the 2015 governor's race was largely a fluke b/c Vitter was awful).

[Lechasseur]

Katrina really devastated a lot of low-income & African-American communities in the southern part of the state. Many left their homes & some never returned to LA. While Katrina not occurring wouldn't be enough to make LA a non-red state in & of itself, I'd say that it'd be more competitive in subsequent elections than was actually the case, esp. if the Democrats nominate Obama or somebody else who can really mobilize the African-American vote. Another effect of this may also be to help stave off the LA Democratic Party's decline in state & local elections (remember, the 2015 governor's race was largely a fluke b/c Vitter was awful).

I don't think Obama would have won Louisiana, but he definitely would have done better there without Katrina.

I definitely agree with the overall idea here though.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

It was trending R before Katrina...Vitter winning his Senate seat without a runoff was a surprise.

However, without Katrina, it may be more like Georgia.

[Lechasseur]

It was trending R before Katrina...Vitter winning his Senate seat without a runoff was a surprise.

However, without Katrina, it may be more like Georgia.

Agreed

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Before Hurricane Katrina hit the state, Louisiana was a lean red state, similar to a state like Ohio today.  However, after the hurricane, with the exodus of people leaving, New Orleans rapidly shifted to become the home of Bobby Jindal, and is now one of the most Republican states.  How would elections have changed (specifically in Louisiana) if Katrina never hit?

Bobby Jindal's best 2003 performances, where in parishes devastated by Katrina:



Jindal, like Pat McCrory, was something of an urban/suburban Republican who found his base among high income and highly educated professionals.

It was after they got elected, when they started catering to different demographics.

[Agonized-Statism]

Agree with the sentiment here. Louisiana would be marginally more blue and Texas would be marginally more red (while both would remain red states, of course). New Orleans would be marginally bigger and Houston would be marginally smaller. Six Flags New Orleans would be a thing.