I can give three scenarios:
1. The sex scandal never existed...
Close, but no cigar.
2. The scandal occurs, and Cain drops out of the race...
Obama/Biden 399Some poor sacrificial republicans 1393. The scandal occurs, and Cain does not drop out of the race... (either due to it occuring days before election or selfishness)
Because I wanted to make a red map...
Obama/Biden 502Herman Cain/A Republican who endorsed the Libs 13Johnson/Gray 23 They received support from the GOP establishment much like what happened in Colorado that one year. (forgot the date)