How realistic are these February results?

[Sir Mohamed]

IA
✓ Pete Buttigieg: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 24%
Joe Biden: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%


NH
✓ Elizabeth Warren: 24%
Pete Buttigieg: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Joe Biden: 14%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%


NV
✓ Bernie Sanders: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Joe Biden: 21%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Kamala Harris: 5%


SC
✓ Joe Biden: 31%
Elizabeth Warren: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%


I think something like this can actually happen. Sanders and Biden both barely survive into March, but neither of them would be favored for the nomination.

[The Other Castro]

I don’t think Biden and Sanders would be as strong going into NV, having come in third and fourth in IA and NH. Buttigieg would also probably do better than that in NV and SC after winning IA and coming in second in NH.

[Cinemark]

That would be an actual nightmare.

Edit: What I mean by that is that these results show democrats are in for a long, arduous primary season that might not be settled till the convention.

[LiberalDem19]

If Kamala Harris fails to break into the top 5 in Iowa she's dropping before Nevada.
There's a reason why she laid off her New Hampshire staff and is going all in on Iowa.

If Biden does that poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, his air of electability is gonna wear off fast. Remember what hurt Hillary in 2008 was not that Obama won Iowa, but that she got beaten by John Edwards.

[John Dule]

Yeah, Kamala would not stick around in this scenario. Other than that, this is possible by the slimmest of margins, I suppose.

[redeagleofficial]

IA
✓ Pete Buttigieg: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 24%
Joe Biden: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%


NH
✓ Elizabeth Warren: 24%
Pete Buttigieg: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Joe Biden: 14%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%


NV
✓ Bernie Sanders: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Joe Biden: 21%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Kamala Harris: 5%


SC
✓ Joe Biden: 31%
Elizabeth Warren: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%


I think something like this can actually happen. Sanders and Biden both barely survive into March, but neither of them would be favored for the nomination.

Plausible minus Klobuchar

[W]

Swap Bernie and Buttigieg in New Hampshire and yes.

[UWS]

Unrealistic. Biden will come either second or first in Nevada and he will definitely win South Carolina by at least 10 percentage points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not very. In particular, I don't see Sanders being very likely to win Nevada. That primary will go to either Biden or Warren.

Iowa meanwhile is probably going to be won by Warren.

New Hampshire and South Carolina look somewhat accurate though.

I too would shudder at seeing the first four states be won by four different candidates though.