Morning Consult National: Biden leads Warren and Sanders 32-20-20

[Sorenroy]

Sample size of 16,071 likely voters, conducted October 28th to November 3rd. Change is from their previous poll conducted one week ago.

Biden — 32% (±0)
Sanders — 20% (±0)
Warren — 20% (±0)
Buttigieg — 7% (±0)
Harris — 5% (-1%)
Yang — 3% (±0)
Booker — 2% (±0)
Gabbard — 2% (±0)
Klobuchar — 2% (±0)
Bennet — 1% (±0)
Bullock — 1% (+1%)
Castro — 1% (±0)
Delaney — 1% (±0)
Steyer — 1% (±0)
Williamson — 1% (±0)

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary-2-2/

[Sorenroy]

If you're wondering what caused the big shakeup in the race, this is the first poll done post-O'Rourke drop out.

[eric82oslo]

If you're wondering what caused the big shakeup in the race, this is the first poll done post-O'Rourke drop out.

Technically not entirely true, since 5/7th of the poll was conducted before he dropped out.
(I get it was a joke though LOL. )

[eric82oslo]

Bullock — 1% (+1%)

Bullock has been at 1% for the last 8 weeks.

[bilaps]

Actualy, there was a shift in early state polls with Biden and Sanders gaining 4pts while Warren holding steady.

Biden 33
Sanders 22
Warren 17

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There was no Buttigieg surge

[Sorenroy]

Bullock — 1% (+1%)

Bullock has been at 1% for the last 8 weeks.

Something seems to have changed since last week. The previous thread, 538's poll tracker, and 270 to Win all show the poll having him at 0%. I've changed it in the original post, but the error was caused by Morning Consult changing their numbers for some reason.


Update: I decided to use a web archiver to see when this was changed and I found that as early as the 28th, Bullock's percentage was changed to 1%. I can only assume that such a quick update means that the original post, with him at 0%, was an error and that the Atlas and others were so fast on recording the standing of candidates that we got the numbers before they were fixed.

https://web.archive.org/web/20191028221252/https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary-2/

[Shadows]

Morning Consult has such a huge sample size that the chances of it going right are much higher.

The real key thing here are the early state numbers. I think Sanders & Biden have gained 4% odd. It is like Biden 32% Bernie 23% Warren 17% Pete 7/8% odd. It will be interesting to see Iowa & NH numbers released by Morning Consult.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The online google poll had Buttigieg again surging

[Sorenroy]

So I emailed 538 and they apparently have Morning Consult's data which shows Bullock at 0.4%. I have reverted the original post to reflect him increasing from a rounded 0% to a rounded 1% as the error is apparently Morning Consult's.