The Future of AOC as a political figure

[Mister Mets]

What do you guys think is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's future as a political figure? Will a prominent member of Congress have a good chance of winning the presidential primary? Could someone with her political background win a general election?

Will she be a George HW Bush, identified in a first term as a major figure?

Or will she be a Michelle Bachmann, beloved by the base?

[brucejoel99]

She'll probably just stick to the House for now & either wait for a likely Schumer retirement in 2028 or just run for President outright once the national environment has become even more receptive to her politics. (I certainly don't think she'd challenge either of the incumbent Senators, & if she were to, then I wouldn't expect her to win unless there was some sort of major scandal in which the incumbent she'd be challenging was implicated.)

I could also see her make her way into House leadership later this decade, as gaining seniority in the House could only serve to help her & the progressive movement over the long-term (something which would be at stake if she were to risk all of that by, say, primarying an incumbent Senator).

She's certainly not in a hurry or anything, though.

[Hope For A New Era]

I worry that she will fall into Hillary Clinton's old position as the next boogeyman for the right. Part of the reason that the prospect of a future AOC presidential run makes me a little nervous.

[NewYorkExpress]

Speaker of the House (not immediately after Pelosi, I think she'll retire at the 2022 midterms and be replaced by Clyburn for a term or two), after the 2026 midterms or the 2028 Presidential Elections.

That would make her the youngest Speaker in generations, if not ever, but I think she's got a better shot at that honor than being President.

[Cassandra]

I worry that she will fall into Hillary Clinton's old position as the next boogeyman for the right. Part of the reason that the prospect of a future AOC presidential run makes me a little nervous.

Too late for that.

[pppolitics]

No.

She just a fringe candidate like Louie Gohmert

[brucejoel99]

No.

She just a fringe candidate like Louie Gohmert

If you think AOC is just the Democratic Party's Louie Gohmert, then you haven't been paying attention.

[Agonized-Statism]

Hard to tell, but I think she stays in Congress for a while. The young Washington outsider angle is already wearing off now that she's old news, so the next path to take for career advancement would be getting experience under her belt and running years from now as a tried-and-true. Maybe she'll be the next Nancy Pelosi. I could see her as a moderate in a Warrenist Democratic Party with appeal to the crotchety Millennials when they replace the Boomers- she's already moderated a lot.

[Tekken_Guy]

No.

She just a fringe candidate like Louie Gohmert

If you think AOC is just the Democratic Party's Louie Gohmert, then you haven't been paying attention.

There is no Gohmert-equivalent in the Democratic Party. He and Steve King are in a league of their own. I see her more as a Mark Meadows type.

[Roll Roons]

No.

She just a fringe candidate like Louie Gohmert

If you think AOC is just the Democratic Party's Louie Gohmert, then you haven't been paying attention.

There is no Gohmert-equivalent in the Democratic Party. He and Steve King are in a league of their own. I see her more as a Mark Meadows type.

I think Omar and Tlaib come fairly close.

[Ogre Mage]

Speaker of the House (not immediately after Pelosi, I think she'll retire at the 2022 midterms and be replaced by Clyburn for a term or two), after the 2026 midterms or the 2028 Presidential Elections.

That would make her the youngest Speaker in generations, if not ever, but I think she's got a better shot at that honor than being President.

When Nancy Pelosi first arrived in the House in the late 1980s, she was considered to be far on the left, kind of like how Ocasio Cortez is seen now.  But at some point she decided she wanted to be in the leadership and make things happen.  Once in the (lower ranks of the) House leadership, she started to get more pragmatic and ruthless when necessary.  And over time she climbed to the pinnacle.

Does Ocasio Cortez have it in her to go this route?  I think she has the political talent, but it would mean shedding some of her idealism.  It is not clear at this point if she is up for that.

[RINO Tom]

No.

She just a fringe candidate like Louie Gohmert

If you think AOC is just the Democratic Party's Louie Gohmert, then you haven't been paying attention.

There is no Gohmert-equivalent in the Democratic Party. He and Steve King are in a league of their own. I see her more as a Mark Meadows type.

He pretty obviously was saying this in terms of being ideologically out of step with the party, not in a direct comparison between their personalities or how controversial they are (though, as others have said, the other members of the Squad are plenty controversial...).  Anyway, that isn't true either, as Democrats on this site seem to consistently downplay both how far left their own progressive wing actually is AND how the demographic and age-related trends point to that progressive wing being the future of the party ... not a centrist party of all the people who still think Trump is icky decades from now.

[Mister Mets]

Speaker of the House (not immediately after Pelosi, I think she'll retire at the 2022 midterms and be replaced by Clyburn for a term or two), after the 2026 midterms or the 2028 Presidential Elections.

That would make her the youngest Speaker in generations, if not ever, but I think she's got a better shot at that honor than being President.

Do you think half of Democratic members of Congress would be on board with that?

It is also conceivable that there may be a more liberal crowd coming in with the upcoming elections, but will it be enough?

[NewYorkExpress]

Speaker of the House (not immediately after Pelosi, I think she'll retire at the 2022 midterms and be replaced by Clyburn for a term or two), after the 2026 midterms or the 2028 Presidential Elections.

That would make her the youngest Speaker in generations, if not ever, but I think she's got a better shot at that honor than being President.

Do you think half of Democratic members of Congress would be on board with that?

It is also conceivable that there may be a more liberal crowd coming in with the upcoming elections, but will it be enough?

I can see a majority of Democrats backing AOC for Speaker.

I think the bigger question is more, does she want to be Speaker?

[pikachu]

Most likely she stays in Congress for awhile, but with Bernie probably gone, I think it's going to be interesting to see who ends up being the progressive/left presidential candidate in 2024 if Biden's vulnerable or chooses to retire. She's the obvious challenger to a more centrist candidate, like Warren was in 2016, but like Warren, I don't expect her to run.

[dw93]

She either works her way up through the ranks in the House or goes for the Senate when Schumer retires. I don't see her going for Governor, she seems more like a legislature than an executive type, which is why I don't see her running for President either (though I can see her being King/Queen maker on the Progressive side of the Democratic Party).

I will say though that even though I initially thought she'd go the way of Palin or Bachmann, I think AOC has gotten a bit more pragmatic in recent months and is here to stay. I think Tlaib and Omar are the two that are likely to go the way of Palin and Bachmann respectively.

[MABA 2020]

Well I've got my fingers crossed that she'll end up in the white house, but more realistically I guess I see her with a long career in the Senate?

[ShadowRocket]

My guess is that she stays in the House and eventually winds up in a leadership position. Senate is certainly possible but I don't see her challenging Schumer so 2028 is the earliest that a Senate seat could open. But by then it may not be worth leaving the House depending on where she is on the totem pole.

[Former President tack50]

Imagine if AOC rose through the ranks, eventually becoming House minority whip or something like that, only be be primaried out in 2040 because of her being out of touch with her district.

That would certainly be poetic justice in a way

[rhg2052]

Representative, NY-14 (2019-2029)
Senator from New York (2029-2041)
Candidate for the Democratic Presidential Nomination (2036, 2040)
President of the United States (2041-2049)

[Battista Minola 1616]

Imagine if AOC rose through the ranks, eventually becoming House minority whip or something like that, only be be primaried out in 2040 because of her being out of touch with her district.

That would certainly be poetic justice in a way

Oh yeah.

Are you implicitly assuming a primary from the left? It would be interesting to see which kind of hyper-socialist far-leftist would take to accomplish such a thing.

[Roll Roons]

Imagine if AOC rose through the ranks, eventually becoming House minority whip or something like that, only be be primaried out in 2040 because of her being out of touch with her district.

That would certainly be poetic justice in a way

Oh yeah.

Are you implicitly assuming a primary from the left? It would be interesting to see which kind of hyper-socialist far-leftist would take to accomplish such a thing.

Maybe she becomes more moderate over time, so someone with views similar to hers today runs against her from the left. Or a full-on Kshama Sawant type.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Imagine if AOC rose through the ranks, eventually becoming House minority whip or something like that, only be be primaried out in 2040 because of her being out of touch with her district.

That would certainly be poetic justice in a way

Oh yeah.

Are you implicitly assuming a primary from the left? It would be interesting to see which kind of hyper-socialist far-leftist would take to accomplish such a thing.

Maybe she becomes more moderate over time, so someone with views similar to hers today runs against her from the left. Or a full-on Kshama Sawant type.

Yes. Or maybe our understanding of what the far-left is changes dramatically in the next twenty years and that person would be someone with a mix of policy proposals that is currently unheard of.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I worry that she will fall into Hillary Clinton's old position as the next boogeyman for the right. Part of the reason that the prospect of a future AOC presidential run makes me a little nervous.

Too late for that.

She's been selected for the role, but it took 20+ years of mud in addition to a lot of missteps for HRC to be as toxic as she was. If AOC either abandons any presidential ambitions or runs for the top job within the next few cycles, she might  avoid that fate.