Predict Iowa.
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Author Topic: Predict Iowa.  (Read 1138 times)
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 24, 2020, 02:21:38 PM »
Well?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 02:22:12 PM »
Ernst by 1-2 is my guess, but in this environment, this race isn’t over yet.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2020, 02:23:19 PM »
Greenfield by 1-2%
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andjey
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2020, 02:23:19 PM »
Greenfield +2
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2020, 02:27:42 PM »
Greenfield +6, Marshall +10, Cornyn +12, Daines +6, Tillis +4, Peters +13, Perdue +7.

/s

Ernst +2 (Trump +4), but I haven’t seen a single person claim that Ernst has it in the bag, so not sure who some people are imagining they’re arguing against...
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2020, 02:44:43 PM »
Quote from: Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie) on October 24, 2020, 02:27:42 PM
Greenfield +6, Marshall +10, Cornyn +12, Daines +6, Tillis +4, Peters +13, Perdue +7.

/s

Ernst +2 (Trump +4), but I haven’t seen a single person claim that Ernst has it in the bag, so not sure who some people are imagining they’re arguing against...

I wasn’t really arguing against anyone, simply saying it’s not over yet, which I say for a lot of races. I’d say the same for a race like Maine.
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S019
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2020, 03:08:13 PM »
Ernst+2
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2020, 03:13:04 PM »
This is really tough. There are many contradictory things going on that makes this really difficult to analyze.

1. Greenfield generally leads in polls, but IA polling is simillar to NV, most of the time "undecides" break heavily D.
2. We don't really know the electorate we're working with in IA considering turnout looks to be dramatically different than in 2016. Generally, common logic says turnout helps Ds, but in a state like IA here the less reliable voters are uneducated whites, will it really help them?
3. Even though Ernst is the incumbent, there's a strong case for a negative incumbency advantage, especially in the case of this race. With that being said, Ernst is good at retail politics, though it looks like that isn't going as well for her this cycle
4. IA is trending R, but generally down ballot trends lag a bit behind top of the ticket trends (AR, WV). We also might see some mean reversion this cycle
5. IA bounced back a little in 2018, but Ds were still overestimated a bit
6. This state is probably a tossup on the Presidential level, maybe with a slight tilt towards Trump


Overall a very true tossup race, though we'll see if either canidate pulls away in the coming weeks. For now, I'll have Ernst as the slight favorite, though my model says Greenfield, so I'm really not sure.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2020, 03:39:39 PM »
Greenfield + 6
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2020, 07:22:59 PM »
50-48 Ernst
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2020, 07:33:43 PM »
Greenfield+2
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2020, 09:09:11 PM »
Greenfield, by 3 despite what people say about JD Scholten, in 2022, he is the best chance D's have to take out Kim Reynolds since he will lose his Congressial race


Hubbard lost by 3 pts
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2020, 09:57:30 PM »
Ernst 51-47
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2020, 07:10:27 AM »
Ernst +1
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Pheurton Skeurto
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2020, 10:07:05 AM »
Greenfield +2
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Figueira
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2020, 10:29:02 AM »
I'll predict Greenfield by less than a point, but it could go either way.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2020, 12:28:26 PM »
Greenfield by 1-2%, as things stand right now. This is very much a 50/50 race, however, and a win by either her or Ernst is equally possible, in my view, and wouldn't be surprising.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2020, 02:01:31 PM »
Still think it's a pure tossup but if I had to place money on it, Greenfield by 1-2% at this point.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2020, 02:09:06 PM »
Greenfield +0.4
#TitaniumtiltD
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morgieb
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2020, 06:35:15 PM »
I'm still saying Ernst +1. Very close but I don't have a lot of faith for Dems in Iowa as things stand.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2020, 08:51:45 PM »
Greenfield +4
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2020, 08:56:40 PM »
Ernst by 2
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2020, 02:57:22 AM »
Make a damn poll tool
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