Johor State snap election March 12 2022

[jaichind]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Johor_state_election

The Johor state of Malaysia will have a snap election on March 12th, 2022.

Johor is the birthplace of UMNO and has been ruled by UMNO until 2018 when the PH alliance (DAP-PKO-PPBM-AMANAH defeated BN (UMNO-MCA-MIC-GERAKAN) and PAS to win power.

In 2020 PPBM split with the majority faction led by Muhyiddin Yassin becoming PM and leading an alliance with PPBM, BN, and PAS.  A similar change took place in Johor with UMNO CM installed backed by PPBM BN and PAS. 

Anti-UMNO factions from PPBM broke from PPBM and formed splinter parties.  They are PEJUANG formed by former UMNO and then PPBM PM Mukhriz Mahathir and MUDA led by PPBM youth leader Syed Saddiq.

This new BN-PPBM-PAS government fell apart recently and a snap election is needed.  There will be two fronts from the national ruling bloc (BN (UMNO-MCA-MIC) and PN(PPBM-PAS-GERAKAN)) with GERAKAN leaving BN and joining PN which is the PPBM-PAS alliance front.  From the national opposition PH (DAP-PKO-AMANAH) will run in a de facto alliance with MUDA while PEJUANG will run in a de facto alliance with WARISAN (a Sabah regional party that is aligned with PH but also with Mahathir's PEJUANG)

This election is critical since if BN sweeps the polls there will be pressure within UMNO to go for snap national elections.  Johor is PPBM leader Muhyiddin Yassin's home state so he will have to show that he still has electoral appeal here.

Johor has a high percentage of Chinese voters that has trended DAP over the years.  UMNO is only able to keep control because the Malays vote consolidates behind UMNO.  In 2018 PAS and PPBM were able to claw away enough Malay votes from UMNO to produce a PH victory. With the 2018 PH alliance splintered the election should be an easy win for BN.  The main problem is PN could further cut into the UMNO Malay vote this time and cut into the BN leads.  The mitigating factor for BN is that  PEJUANG-WARISAN  could also take away enough anti-UMNO Malay votes from PH to still produce a large BN win even if some UMNO Malay votes defect to PN.  Also, this time around the Chinese vote might regress to the mean and swing away from DAP back to MCA of the BN alliance.

All these factors seem to point to a solid BN win and a likely national snap election soon.

[jaichind]

2018 Johor assembly election results

           Contest   Win     Vote share
PH            55      36     53.38%
   PPBM      17         8      14.27%
   DAP        14       14      20.73%
   AMANAH  12        9      10.74%   
   PKR         12        5        7.64%

BN            56       19      38.70%
   UMNO       35      17      25.25%
   MCA          15        0       9.63%
   MIC            4        2        2.82%
   GERAKAN    2        0        1.00%

PAS           41         1       7.88%

MCA and GERAKAN being 0 for 17 show how much the Chinese vote was skewed toward PH and DAP in particular.  UMNO winning 17 out of 35 shows UMNO's strength in Malay areas despite losing some Malay votes to PPBM and PAS.

[Logical]

Candidates List
PH+               57 (Double candidacy between MUDA and PKR in 1 seat)
    PKR           20
    AMANAH    16
    DAP           14
    MUDA          7

BN                 56
   UMNO         37
   MCA            15
   MIC             4

PN                 56
   BERSATU     33
   GERAKAN    15
   PAS             8

PEJUANG         42
WARISAN        6
PBM                4
IND and Minor 18

There are 14 seats where it's a straight up DAP vs MCA battle. I would watch them closely on election night, if there is a swing in the Chinese vote to BN you would see it here. The mixed and Malay majority seats are harder to predict with the vote splitting but if the Chinese vote moves to BN then it would be a slaughter.

[jaichind]

Note that the Chinese heavy urban seats have a much larger population than the rural Malay heavy seats.  Given the PH edge in the Chinese vote, it will not surprise me at all if the PH-MUDA vote share ends up being close or even overtaking that of BN yet BN still wins a landslide in terms of seat count.

Ground reports indicate that the morale of PN is not very high and they could face a wipeout.  If so then UMNO's goal of consolidating the Malay vote most likely has succeded and now the result is either a small or large landslide for BN depending on how the Chinese vote split.

[jaichind]

Turnout at only 50% at 4PM.   Will be BN landslide. 

[jaichind]

Early unofficial results have BN ahead in 43 out of 56 seats.  MCA clearly eating into the Chinese vote from DAP with PN and PH splitting the anti-BN Malay vote leading to clean BN sweep of Malay seats.

[jaichind]

What BN headquarters looks like


What PH headquarters looks like

[jaichind]

Right now it is BN 40 PH 13 (including 1 for MUDA) and 3 for PN

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

An election right across the straits, wished I could say anything more about this but depressing that BH is making a comeback.

[Logical]

BN is the Malaysian LDP. It takes a perfect storm of corruption scandals, weariness and a credible opposition to bring them down.

[jaichind]

Results

DAP loses 4 of its Chinese seats to MCA and ended up with 10. PKR and MUDA ran on their own symbols versus the PH symbol and one 1 seat each.   PPBM wins 2 and PAS 1.  UMNO pretty much sweeps the rest of the Malay seats.

[jaichind]

BN is the Malaysian LDP. It takes a perfect storm of corruption scandals, weariness and a credible opposition to bring them down.

2018-2022 Malaysia is a lot like India 1977-1980.  The ruling INC was considered to be invincible in the early 1970s but a series of blunders followed by the defection of key INC faction plus a consolidated opposition pulled off a surprise victory in 1977.   But after coming to power the new ruling bloc started to bicker among themselves and fumbled especially when they did not expect to come to power.  Then the new ruling bloc split and paved the way for the old INC to come back to power in 1980.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What BN headquarters looks like


What PH headquarters looks like

The Absolute State of the Malay Opposition

[jaichind]

Vote shares seem to be

BN                            43.11%
PH-MUDA                  29.88%
PN                            24.04%
PEJUANG-WARISAN      1.81%

BN's high vote share shows how much BN has recovered the old BN Chinese vote that it lost in 2013.  The Chinese tend to vote BN when there is high economic uncertainty and vote opposition when the economic situation is going well on the premise that BN is better at handling the macroeconomic situation.   In 1999 with the formation of Anwar's PKR there was a large shift of Malay votes from UMNO to the opposition.  It was the Chinese vote that swung toward BN that prevented BN from losing or narrowly keeping its majority. 

[jaichind]

UMNO PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob is rejecting calls for an early general election.   This is his position because he knows he is PM because only he can command the support of both BN and PN MPs needed for a majority.   An early election with a BN landslide victory and majority would most likely mean he is out as PM. 

[jaichind]

Now that the Johor election is over the battle becomes an UMNO internal one.

UMNO leaders like UMNO Prez Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and former UMNO PM Najib Razak want a snap election ASAP.  Both are them are facing corruption trials and could be in jail soon.  What both of them needs is for a snap election to take place, since Hamidi is UMNO Prez and could select UMNO candidates, and then after the BN victory a new UMNO PM, and not current UMNO PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob,  controlled by them can control the political and legal process to get them out of going to jail.

What UMNO PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob wants is the opposite.  He knows an election means his days as PM is over.  He wants the election to be held AFTER UMNO leadership elections in Oct 2022.  He would want to challenge Hamidi to be UMNO leader and after he wins such a leadership race he can then appoint UMNO candidates in a general election that BN will win  and reappoint him as PM.

The main problem for Yaakob is the UMNO grassroots wants an early election now so UMNO can win a majority on its own and not be dependent on PN (PPBM and PAS).  The longer Yaakob drags this out he will lose support within UMNO which weakens his case to win an UMNO leadership contest against Hamidi.