Pakistan 2023

[jaichind]

Pakistan will hold elections by Oct 2023 at the latest.  Given the current situation, I cannot see how Imran Khan and his PTI can be stopped.  The only thing I can think of is to arrest him over some legal issue and then try to ban PTI from running.

[jaichind]

First up of course would be Punjab provincial snap election on April 30th.

It will be PTI vs    Hamza Shahbaz Sharif's PML(N).  PML(N) ancient rival will be a de facto ally of PML(N).  Hamza Shahbaz Sharif of course is the son of Pakistan PML(N) PM Shehbaz Sharif.

Hamza Shahbaz Sharif was CM of Punjab in 2022 via a large-scale PTI defection.   His majority was overturned by a bunch of PTI by-elections but his floor vote defeat was overturned by the Speaker that threw out some votes.  That decision was overturned by the courts and he had to step down as CM.

The votes should be there for a PTI win but who will lead the PTI campaign is still up in the air.  Former PML(Q) CM Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi who was CM in the latter half of 2023 as a PTI ally has since joined PTI but it is not clear he will be the face of PTI.

[jaichind]

This gives you a sense of how strong  Imran Khan and his PTI would be against his rivals.
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1632820114432073729

Imran Khan will be taking a very pro-Russia stance and will seek to blame all problems on Pakistan's "deep state"/establishment in a cabal with the USA.  It seems Imran Khan's removal in April 2022 was a great blessing.  The economy was already in trouble in 2022 and he was going to have to own it in the 2023 elections.  Now he can blame all economic issues on the current ruling government and the USA, of course.

[jaichind]

There are multiple cases outstanding against Imran Khan.  Imran Khan has so far just ignored all request to appear in court.  Surprising  the government, police and courts are letting him get away with this.  I think the establishment is divided on what to do about Imran Khan.  To arrest him by force could push up PTI's support but to let him ignore legal requests to appear in court just makes the establishment look weak.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1051338-lahore-police-barge-into-imran-khans-zaman-park-residence

"Lahore police barge into Imran Khan's Zaman Park residence"

This is risky.  Imran Khan has hundreds of dedicated supporters with him at his residence.  Any large-scale bloodshed will only work to Imran Khan's political advantage.   On the flip side, any large-scale bloodshed could become an excuse to cancel the upcoming Punjab provincial elections and the national elections later this year with PTI seeming poised to win.

[jaichind]

It seems Imran Khan outsmarted the police/government.  On the day the police came to arrest him in his house due to his non-appearance in court he left ahead of time to appear in court.   He also arranged for his supporters to get out ahead of time before the police arrived.  So when a large police force arrived at his house he was not there and there is the visual spectacle of a large police force arresting a few domestic servants.
https://twitter.com/KhaleejMag/status/1637003498846920704

[jaichind]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1743591

"ECP postpones Punjab elections to October 8"

Punjab provincial snap elections moved from April 30th to Oct 8th due to security issues.  This is a clear sign that the government except PTI to sweep those polls.

[jaichind]

https://www.newsdrum.in/international/pakistans-former-pm-imran-khan-holds-rally-at-minar-i-pakistan-despite-threats

"Imran Khan holds rally at Minar-i-Pakistan in Lahore despite threats, no media coverage"

Imran Khan holds a massive rally in Lahore


 
At this stage, he is the only politician in Pakistan that can get this crowd.

Imran Khan reminds me a lot of Trump.  

Both were elected on an outsider semi-anti-system message.  Both ruled as a compromise between their anti-establishment message and trying to compromise with the establishment which failed to satisfy either side.  Both lost power through technically fair and legal means but with the backdrop of the establishment and the MSM being out to tip the scales against them.  Due to this fact their supporters believe and continue to believe their loss of power was rigged (some believe that in a technical sense and others in the sense that the process of their defeat was legal but unfair).  This belief drives the intensity of their base's support to reclaim power.  Both also now have decided to not compromise with the establishment and will run to reclaim power on a pure anti-establishment message.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://www.newsdrum.in/international/pakistans-former-pm-imran-khan-holds-rally-at-minar-i-pakistan-despite-threats

"Imran Khan holds rally at Minar-i-Pakistan in Lahore despite threats, no media coverage"

Imran Khan holds a massive rally in Lahore


 
At this stage, he is the only politician in Pakistan that can get this crowd.

Imran Khan reminds me a lot of Trump.  

Both were elected on an outsider semi-anti-system message.  Both ruled as a compromise between their anti-establishment message and trying to compromise with the establishment which failed to satisfy either side.  Both lost power through technically fair and legal means but with the backdrop of the establishment and the MSM being out to tip the scales against them.  Due to this fact their supporters believe and continue to believe their loss of power was rigged (some believe that in a technical sense and others in the sense that the process of their defeat was legal but unfair).  This belief drives the intensity of their base's support to reclaim power.  Both also now have decided to not compromise with the establishment and will run to reclaim power on a pure anti-establishment message.

Abdullah says this guy is a better comparison to Trump: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khadim_Hussain_Rizvi

[jaichind]

Republic Policy survey of Punjab provincial elections which got moved to Oct 8th has PTI with a massive 2/3 majority.  The good news for PML(N) is that there is plenty of time to make up for this lost ground.

[jaichind]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1743591

"ECP postpones Punjab elections to October 8"

Punjab provincial snap elections moved from April 30th to Oct 8th due to security issues.  This is a clear sign that the government except PTI to sweep those polls.

https://indianexpress.com/article/pakistan/pakistan-sc-election-commission-polls-void-8537684/lite/

"Pakistan Supreme Court declares election commission’s decision delaying Punjab polls null and void"

Pakistan Supreme Court overturns election commission and moves Punjab provincial snap election to May 14th.   Here comes the Khan/PTI landslide

[jaichind]

IRIS poll



National vote

PTI         40
PML(N)   19
PPP        11
TLP          5

Punjab provincial

PTI          45
PML(N)    31
PPP           5
TLP           5

Only way to stop PTI is a PML(N)-PPP alliance which will be hard on the ground level given their historical rivalry

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/9/former-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-arrested-outside-islamabad-court

"Former Pakistan PM Imran Khan arrested outside Islamabad court"

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65531648

"Imran Khan: Mass protests across Pakistan after ex-PM arrest"

I suspect the Punjab provincial election on May 14th is off, despite what the Supreme Court ruled

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/pakistan/pakistan-imran-khan-arrest-army-headquarters-rawalpindi-8600519/lite/

"Imran Khan’s supporters storm Pak Army headquarters, chant slogans against establishment"

[jaichind]

Internet blackout.  PTI most likely will be banned and Khan be imprisoned for a long period.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm sure this will go well.....

[jaichind]

Bloomberg: Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that former premier Imran Khan’s arrest by the anti-graft agency was illegal and ordered for the ex-cricket star to be freed from custody, a dramatic about-turn in the ongoing political drama.

[Octowakandi]

Bloomberg: Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that former premier Imran Khan’s arrest by the anti-graft agency was illegal and ordered for the ex-cricket star to be freed from custody, a dramatic about-turn in the ongoing political drama.

So he is going to be able to run again after all?

[jaichind]

Bloomberg: Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that former premier Imran Khan’s arrest by the anti-graft agency was illegal and ordered for the ex-cricket star to be freed from custody, a dramatic about-turn in the ongoing political drama.

So he is going to be able to run again after all?

Not clear.  It seems the Supreme Court will hold a hearing to decide what to do about the charges against Khan.  All the Supreme Court said is that the way he was arrested was illegal not that there no charges against Khan.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This video is interesting.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Exposed

https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1657842709334294530

Alas, the Bhutto clique, as usual, severely underestimated just how much support Imran Khan has amongst the people 

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/pak-army-forcing-out-imran-khans-flock-three-more-pti-leaders-quit-in-24-hours-details-101685083288505.html

"Pak Army 'forcing' out Imran Khan's flock? Three more PTI leaders quit in 24 hours"

Looks like there is pressure for PTI leaders to quit the party.