🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro, national PSD leader, says that the Madeiran people want Albuquerque as President:

Montenegro said that the PSD had a "clear victory" and that in two elections in just 8 months, the people voted for the PSD and its regional leader. He added that the election has to clear "losers", the PS and CHEGA. Montenegro now hopes that a governmental solution is reached in order to have stability and respect the people's choice.

[Mike88]

Paulo Cafôfo, PS leader, says that PS and JPP together have more votes and seats than the PSD and that an alternative government is possible, adding he's available to talk with all parties expect PSD and CHEGA.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Paulo Cafôfo, PS leader, says that PS and JPP together have more votes and seats than the PSD and that an alternative government is possible.

uh... how? they'd need either CDS+IL+PAN or CHEGA support (or at least confidence) for that, and while PAN seems likely and IL may be possible, CDS and especially CHEGA seem like total non-starters.

[Mike88]

Paulo Cafôfo, PS leader, says that PS and JPP together have more votes and seats than the PSD and that an alternative government is possible.

uh... how? they'd need either CDS+IL+PAN or CHEGA support (or at least confidence) for that, and while PAN seems likely and IL may be possible, CDS and especially CHEGA seem like total non-starters.

It will be very difficult for IL to support a PS led government, as many of the PS' policies chash with the Liberals. CDS has a problem with Albuquerque, not the PSD, and I'm not sure if the national CDS will be happy with the party supporting the PS. And even JPP, not sure if that would be the kiss of death for the PS as the whole goal of JPP is becoming the main opposition to the PSD. Also, when asked about Cafôfo's idea of an alternative government, the JPP leader said, with irony, "It exists maybe in his head".

As everyone expected, this ended in a trainwreck: The PSD won, lost a bit but held their ground, the PS is worth just 20% in Madeira, JPP is growing and neck and neck with the PS, CHEGA has stagned and CDS, PAN and IL survived. For the leftwing, disaster. New elections in January 2025, are not off the table and are very likely.

[Mike88]

IL national leader Rui Rocha said that Cafôfo should "not waste his time with Liberals". So, yeah, no.

[Mike88]

Pedro Nuno Santos pointed that the PSD had "its worst result yet", and that the PS remains a strong party in Madeira:

PNS pointed to the "weakest result of the PSD" and that PS remained stable. He hopes that stability can be achieved with the election results, warning that holding elections after elections is not a good idea and that the PS is ready to form a regional government. He also pressed on the point that the right is only "confusion" and doesn't talk with each other, in the mainland and also Madeira.

[Mike88]

Results map by parish:


Map link.

Number of parishes won by each party:

45 PSD
  5 JPP
  3 PS
  1 CDS

[Mike88]

André Ventura wants Miguel Albuquerque out as PSD-Madeira leader in order to support the PSD:

Ventura reacted to his party's results in Madeira saying there is no possibility of an agreement with Albuquerque as PSD leader, pressing that the party doesn't give in on its values and principals and that CHEGA is indispensable for a majority. Ventura also hailed CHEGA's results, saying they grew in votes and held on to their 4 seats, plus "applauded" the disappearance of the leftwing parties, BE and PCP, from the regional parliament, labeling it as a victory.

[Mike88]

Another election in Madeira, another proof that the change in the electoral system, way back in 2006/2007, was the dumbest thing ever made by the PSD. Made a simulation of the 47 seats distributed across the 11 municipalities/constituencies and obtained these results:

24 PSD
10 PS
  8 JPP
  4 CHEGA
  1 CDS

Parties in power normally change electoral systems to benefit them, but here's the PSD-Madeira to disapprove that theory.

[Mike88]

24 hours after the election, PS and JPP have reach a deal to present an "alternative government" and will announce it tonight in a joint press conference.

However, the PS-Madeira is deeply divided: Several party members are criticizing Paulo Cafôfo's "all in strategy" of presenting an alternative government, some labeling it as "crazy", and that this election night was one to "forget".

At the same time, CDS-M leader, José Manuel Rodrigues, said he received a call from Miguel Albuquerque during election night. He said that no deals or coalitions were discussed and that only congratulations from both sides were given. He added that the PSD needs to concede and dialogue in order to govern.

CHEGA, as usual, is giving confusing signs, with Ventura saying that no agreement will be made with the PSD-M if Albuquerque remains as leader. But, his Madeira candidate, Miguel Castro, told SIC TV that a dialogue case by case with the PSD is not off the table.

[Mike88]

24 hours after the election, PS and JPP have reach a deal to present an "alternative government" and will announce it tonight in a joint press conference.

The PS-JPP joint press conference was a bit weird. First, reporters weren't allowed to ask questions to the party leaders, second, other parties weren't informed or contacted about the details of this "compromise", and third, it's odd that in an announcement of a government compromise one of the sides, in this case JPP, says that "if this doesn't work, we're going home". Paulo Cafôfo, PS leader, says that alternation is needed in Madeira and that this compromise with JPP can ensure a "stable but responsible" government. JPP says that they could not sit by and let this opportunity pass and present an alternative to the near 50 years of PSD rule, and both challenge other parties, CDS, IL and PAN, to join PS and JPP.

The Representative of the Republic in Madeira, Ireneu Barreto, will met with parties this Tuesday, 28 May, during the day.

In the PSD-Madeira, some are now criticizing Miguel Albuquerque. The main figure is Alberto João Jardim, former PSD-M leader and Madeira President (1978-2015), which says that Albuquerque must resign as he's the sole responsable for all the instability in Madeira, pointing that parties are willing to make deals with the PSD, but that Albuquerque is an obstacle right now.

PM Montenegro has already criticized this "compromise" and joked that election losers are more concentrated in "contraptioning", both in Madeira and in the mainland, than in being opposition. Pedro Nuno Santos says he stands by all decisions made by the PS-Madeira.

[crals]

Hard to see how either Albuquerque or Cafôfo will be able to govern. PSD-M will have to deliver Albuquerque's head on a platter to the opposition parties.

[Mike88]

Hard to see how either Albuquerque or Cafôfo will be able to govern. PSD-M will have to deliver Albuquerque's head on a platter to the opposition parties.

Yeah. The problem is that Albuquerque refuses to leave, as the solution for the instability is exactly that, Albuquerque resigning from the PSD-M leadership. Alberto João Jardim is giving interview after interview saying that Albuquerque has to leave now, and the PSD-M looks divided. The PS-M is not any better, as several party members are ridiculing the compromise with JPP, and the national PS was also caught a bit off-guard with the announcement.

This is going to end in new elections sooner or later.

[Mike88]

24 hours after the election, PS and JPP have reach a deal to present an "alternative government" and will announce it tonight in a joint press conference.

The PS-JPP joint press conference was a bit weird. First, reporters weren't allowed to ask questions to the party leaders, second, other parties weren't informed or contacted about the details of this "compromise", and third, it's odd that in an announcement of a government compromise one of the sides, in this case JPP, says that "if this doesn't work, we're going home". Paulo Cafôfo, PS leader, says that alternation is needed in Madeira and that this compromise with JPP can ensure a "stable but responsible" government. JPP says that they could not sit by and let this opportunity pass and present an alternative to the near 50 years of PSD rule, and both challenge other parties, CDS, IL and PAN, to join PS and JPP.

24 hours later, the PS/JPP compromise ended: Miguel Albuquerque was asked to form a government.

PSD-M leader Miguel Albuquerque was asked to form a government by the Representative of the Republic, Ireneu Barreto. Mr. Barreto met with parties represented in the regional assembly and Albuquerque was the one who got more support, as CDS, after meeting in the morning with the PSD, decided to support Albuquerque rather than to join the PS/JPP compromise. Albuquerque confirmed he will sign a confidence and supply agreement with CDS, and has the guarantee that CHEGA will not vote against the PSD and will abstain.

On the national scene, the day was marked by the 6-hour visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Portugal:

Press conference after the meeting.

After visits to Spain and Belgium, President Zelensky arrived at Lisbon airport this Tuesday afternoon. He was greated by President Marcelo and PM Montenegro and received military honours. He then had a 1-hour long meeting with PM Montenegro where a 10-year agreement between Portugal and Ukraine was signed. This agreement will give further aid to Ukraine, military and financial, worth of at least 126 million euros in 2024 (100 million already given plus an additional 26 million), pilot training, delivery of jets, tanks and ammunition and also plans for the reconstrution of Ukraine after the war. Zelensky thanked Portugal for its support in the war against Russia, while PM Montenegro pressed on Portugal's support for Ukraine's candidacy to the EU and NATO. Portugal also said they will put more effort on diplomatic talks in order for more countries to join the Switzerland Peace Summit, to be held this June, with Montenegro saying that Portugal was able to convince the Dominican Republic and is now working on São Tomé and Principe. Then, President Zelensky met with President Marcelo and ended the trip with a working dinner with the President and the PM.

[Mike88]

Marktest poll, approval of political leaders:

50.8% Luís Montenegro
49.2% Rui Tavares
48.0% Pedro Nuno Santos
47.2% Rui Rocha
43.1% Mariana Mortágua
41.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
40.7% Inês Sousa Real
38.0% Nuno Melo
37.2% Paulo Raimundo
34.7% André Ventura

Poll conducted between 14 and 15 May 2024. Polled 497 voters. MoE of 4.40%.

[Mike88]

NHS crisis: Government unveils the "Emergency Healthcare Plan", which increases NHS cooperation with private and social hospitals.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1795909224893215105

The plan presented by the Government provides for a direct service channel for pregnant women and financial incentives to increase births.

With the ongoing problems in the NHS, emergency rooms constrained, long waiting lists and 1,7 million people without a GP (family doctor in Portugal), the cabinet approved an emergency healthcare plan, yesterday, and was presented by PM Montenegro and the Health minister, Ana Paula Martins. The Prime Minister said that the plan will give an immediate response, but will not solve all the problems as many are structural and need time to be resolved, and that the NHS will remain the pillar of healthcare in Portugal, pointing, however, that the government doesn't mix ideology with healthcare. The plan was design by a group of specialists and has 54 main policies. The main policies are:

- Open vacancies for 900 new GPs;
- Scrap of wanting lists for cancer patients with telephone vouchers and patients will be operated in either a public or private hospital;
- Creation of clinical care centers in order to lower preassure on emergency rooms, some run by the private sector;
- Requalification of emergency rooms in public hospitals;
- Creation of a SOS Pregnancy line to follow pregnant women;
- Hiring of 100 new psychologists;
- Creation of a mental health plan for the army and police forces;

Reactions were mixed: Doctors associations say they are "happy" with the plan, while leftwing opposition parties, PS, PCP, BE, accuse the government of "privatizing" the NHS and of just showing a power-point. IL and CHEGA say that the plan doesn't go far enough.

[Mike88]

NHS crisis: Government unveils the "Emergency Healthcare Plan", which increases NHS cooperation with private and social hospitals.

One of the proposals in this emergency plan is that 130,651 people will lose the right to have a GP (family doctor) if they didn't had any contact with a GP in the last 5 years. This will affect 50,000 Portuguese emigrants and 80,000 immigrants in Portugal. These policy is a bit similar to one proposed by former PM Costa's government, late last year, in which Portuguese emigrants would lose the right to have a GP. This proposal created a lot of backlash and the then government, by then already in a caretaker capacity, dropped the policy. One of the main critics of this policy was... the PSD. Who now proposes a "softer" version.

Immigrant associations in Portugal are criticizing the government for this proposal, pointing that healthcare is a right for everyone.

[Mike88]

Early voting: More than 250,000 voters asked to vote early.

252,209 voters asked to vote early for the EP elections. Voters will cast early ballots next Sunday, 2 June. The number of early voting requests is higher than in last March general elections, and has no comparison to the 2019 numbers, around 19,000. President Marcelo and PM Montenegro called for early voting in a rather "cringe" video:

And speaking of President Marcelo, Expresso newspaper reports this weekend that the President is in a rather depressed mode, worried about his falling polling ratings and making pilgrimages to Fátima Sanctuary every 15 days. The newspaper writes that friends are worried about him, also because of the separation between Marcelo and his eldest son due to the Brazilian Twins affair. An Intercampus poll this week, shows that Marcelo is no longer the most popular President in democracy, with Ramalho Eanes (1976-86) polling first with 28%, Jorge Sampaio (1996-2006) second with 19% and Marcelo (2016-present) taking third place with just 16%.

[Mike88]

Another bad poll for President Marcelo, 60% disapproval:

Aximage poll for TSF radio and JN/DN newspapers:

Q1: President Marcelo's approval:

60% Disapprove
32% Approve
  8% Undecided

Q2: Who do you trust more, the President or the PM?

32% The President
30% The PM
26% Both
12% Undecided

Q3: Popularity ratings: (difference between Approve and Disapprove)

Luís Montenegro +25.0
Rui Tavares +11.0
Pedro Nuno Santos +3.0
Rui Rocha +3.0
Mariana Mortágua -4.0
Inês Sousa Real -9.0
Nuno Melo -12.0
Paulo Raimundo -26.0
André Ventura -33.0

Poll conducted between 17 and 22 May 2024. Polled 801 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

how much of LIVRE's rise is due to Tavares being relatively popular?

[Mike88]

how much of LIVRE's rise is due to Tavares being relatively popular?

Pretty much all of it. Similar to CHEGA, Livre "rotates" around its leader, Rui Tavares, and his popularity helps the party. That's one reason why he's receiving some criticism for being absent from the campaign trail of the EP election and not accompanying his party's candidate, which wasn't his preferred, something I posted in the EP election thread:

The "problems" started during the primaries: Livre has an open primary system to elect their candidates and as Paupério wasn't Tavares' preferred candidate, in the 2nd round of these primaries, with Paupério seen as the clear favourite, Tavares wanted to end the open primary system and impose a close system in which only party members would be allowed to vote. This created a lot of backlash, the idea was dropped and Paupério won the primaries against Tavares' candidate.

[Mike88]

Early voting day:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1797182886119899298

President and Prime Minister among the 252,000 voters who can vote in advance today

252,209 voters are registered to vote early today. President Marcelo and PM Montenegro are among those who registered to vote early. Montenegro voted this morning in Espinho city, Aveiro district, while President Marcelo is expected to vote later in the day.