NM-3: Wiviott drops out of Senate race to run for Udall's House seat

[Adlai Stevenson]

SANTA FE (AP) - Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott has decided against campaigning for an open U.S. Senate seat now that Representative Tom Udall is in the race.

Wiviott says he'll instead seek Udall's seat.

Wiviott says he had intended to step down if Udall announced to avoid fracturing the Democratic efforts in New Mexico.

Wiviott had launched his senate campaign before Pete Domenici announced last month that he will retire in January 2009 because of an incurable brain disease.

Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya also plans to seek northern New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District seat.

Meanwhile, former state Representative Patsy Trujillo says she's considering a congressional race.

She and Espanola Mayor Joe Maestas say they'll announce their plans within the next two weeks.

http://www.kdbc.com/Global/story.asp?S=7344129&nav=menu608_2_3

NM-3 voted 54%-45% for John Kerry in 2004, after going 52%-43% for Al Gore in 2000. 

[Jake]

If he was intelligent, Chavez would drop out and run for Wilson's seat.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Chavez should drop out and run for Wilson's seat, so that we keep party unity.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Chavez should drop out and not run for any seats, because he'd be a terrible candidate.

Good decision by Wiviott. He didn't stand a chance in the Senate race, but in a Dem-leaning district, he may have a chance. I don't know what kind of Democrat he is, though.

[Sam Spade]

Chavez should drop out and run for Wilson's seat, so that we keep party unity.

Chavez is about as interested in party unity as most posters in this forum are interested in making non-hackish statements.

Besides, if he wanted to run for NM-01, he could have done so countless times in the past.  Anyway, he'd have problems winning that primary also. (not to mention the GE).

[Jake]

Surely he'd have a better chance than beating Udall and then Pearce/Wilson, right?

[Sam Spade]

Surely he'd have a better chance than beating Udall and then Pearce/Wilson, right?

Of course, though don't underestimate the likely Republican candidate in NM-01, or his likely Dem opponents in NM-01 (even though I labeled them as not being "cream of the crop").  Leftist Democrats in Albuquerque (much like this forum) do not like Chavez, nor do they trust him.  But leftist Democrats do not constitute anywhere near a majority in NM-01 Dem primaries, not to mention the state proper.  Look, NM-01 is definitely more favorable territory, though Albuquerque proper is not the entirety of Bernanillo County or NM-01. 

However, in a statewide primary, his chances are better against Udall than they would be against Denish in 2010 Gov. race for a couple of reasons.  First, he lost the 1998 Gov. race pretty spectacularly against the Republican, and NM Dems might be leery of voting for him there (though that might carry that on to here).  Second, Denish would eat into conservative Dems down South in Little Texas much more than almost any other opponent I could think of, a constituency he will have to rely on to win.  Third, Udall is less known than Denish (I suspect).

The ABQ 2010 Gov. Primary poll (which is a fairly reliable poll, for New Mexico) a few months ago had Denish leading Chavez 50-31.  This "internal Udall poll" has Udall ahead by a 50-30 margin.

Whatever, the key thing people are forgetting here is that Chavez is stubborn to often ridiculous levels.  The more the Washington Dems say, "Get out of the race,", the harder he's going to fight.  And when he fights, expect him to play the outsider message and expect him to play the Hispanic vs. White message, regardless of what damage he does. (at least those are the two obvious messages I can already see).  And he can also be a chameleon - he might attack Udall from the right, as well as the left.

The clearest example of how the fight could get occurred Saturday - the first thing Chavez does is on Saturday when Udall announces, Chavez announces the formation of a committee to get rid of the hated red light cameras in Albuquerque, which places him at the top of the newspaper and Udall's announcement relegated to page 7 somewhere.

But who knows, I could be wrong.  This is New Mexico, where politics often doesn't make sense and the impossible occurrences do happen.  I will regularly admit that I blew the Wilson call in 2006 (believing the polls) and I also though Bush would win by 5% in 2004 (again believing the polls), so my word is clearly far from gold here.  And everyone's stand-in-stone predictions could turn out to be right (though they rarely do).

But I think I do understand the personalities - FWIW. 

[Joe Republic]

However, in a statewide primary, his chances are better against Udall than they would be against Denish in 2010 Gov. race for a couple of reasons.  First, he lost the 1998 Gov. race pretty spectacularly against the Republican, and NM Dems might be leery of voting for him there (though that might carry that on to here).  Second, Denish would eat into conservative Dems down South in Little Texas much more than almost any other opponent I could think of, a constituency he will have to rely on to win.  Third, Udall is less known than Denish (I suspect).

Interesting to note who Chavez's running mate was in 1998. 

[Jake]

[snip]

Very interesting. NM Political theater should be good the next few months then.

[Sam Spade]

However, in a statewide primary, his chances are better against Udall than they would be against Denish in 2010 Gov. race for a couple of reasons.  First, he lost the 1998 Gov. race pretty spectacularly against the Republican, and NM Dems might be leery of voting for him there (though that might carry that on to here).  Second, Denish would eat into conservative Dems down South in Little Texas much more than almost any other opponent I could think of, a constituency he will have to rely on to win.  Third, Udall is less known than Denish (I suspect).

Interesting to note who Chavez's running mate was in 1998. 

I didn't choose to mention that, but yes...

Anyway, you won't get any predictions out of me on the race, except for something weird at this point.

[Speed of Sound]

Oh boy, things are getting really mixed up down there in New Mexico. I suppose its a little too much movement now to allow Richardson into much of anything, which means hes stuck on his going-nowhere presidential campaign. Sucks to be him these days, back to the diplomacy game, I guess.