Puerto Rico - Final Predictions

[Eraserhead]

Clinton 58%
Obama 42%

[skoods]

Clinton - 61%
Obama - 39%

Just because it seems as though she's spent the past week there and he hasn't spent a minute there.

[Alcon]

Si se puede 59%
Yes she will (you can't really say that in Spanish) 41%

I have no idea if there are other options on the ballot.  And I don't care.

[Meeker]

Si se puede 59%
Yes she will (you can't really say that in Spanish) 41%

I have no idea if there are other options on the ballot.  And I don't care.

You think she's going to lose? I'd love to hear the logic


Clinton: 58%
Obama: 42%

I don't really have any idea though

[Alcon]

Si se puede 59%
Yes she will (you can't really say that in Spanish) 41%

I have no idea if there are other options on the ballot.  And I don't care.

You think she's going to lose? I'd love to hear the logic


Clinton: 58%
Obama: 42%

I don't really have any idea though

No, I was too busy thinking of a way to say "Yes she will" to actually have any idea what I was talking about

But why the hell not?  If Obama wins, I'm going to look really brilliant here   Otherwise I can pretend it was a typo

[Franzl]

Clinton 57%
Obama 43%

[Ogre Mage]

Clinton 60%
Obama 40%

[Franzl]

Now that I come to think about it, my prediction (and every prediction for that matter) seem a little to high for Obama.

Question: Clinton was winning Latinos in CA and TX by almost 2:1, if I remember correctly. That margin wasn't near as bad in AZ, NM, (or even FL, but Edwards was still in it then).

Why is that? And why wouldn't Puerto Rico Latinos be like those in Texas or California? Is there some reason they might be more likely to support Obama?

[Meeker]

Now that I come to think about it, my prediction (and every prediction for that matter) seem a little to high for Obama.

Question: Clinton was winning Latinos in CA and TX by almost 2:1, if I remember correctly. That margin wasn't near as bad in AZ, NM, (or even FL, but Edwards was still in it then).

Why is that? And why wouldn't Puerto Rico Latinos be like those in Texas or California? Is there some reason they might be more likely to support Obama?

There's a fairly sizable population of African descent (20% I think). I don't know off hand how much affinity they have for Obama, but I suspect he'd do rather well there.

I think the Hispanic support for Clinton also has a lot to do with them being a minority group on the mainland and due to some issues that only affect mainland Latinos. Not to sound Sam Spadesque, but I'm to tired to go into greater detail.

[Tender Branson]

Clinton: 62%
Obama: 38%

Turnout: 600.000-800.000

Question: Will there be any Exit Polls on CNN at 9pm ?

[phk]

Now that I come to think about it, my prediction (and every prediction for that matter) seem a little to high for Obama.

Question: Clinton was winning Latinos in CA and TX by almost 2:1, if I remember correctly. That margin wasn't near as bad in AZ, NM, (or even FL, but Edwards was still in it then).

Why is that? And why wouldn't Puerto Rico Latinos be like those in Texas or California? Is there some reason they might be more likely to support Obama?

How did NJ and NY Latinos vote (assuming that Puerto Ricans in Puerto Rico mirror those on the mainland)?

[elcorazon]

56-44 Clinton

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Clinton: 56
Obama: 43

[nyquil_man]

How did NJ and NY Latinos vote (assuming that Puerto Ricans in Puerto Rico mirror those on the mainland)?

NY: 73-26
NJ: 68-30

[Iosif is a COTHO]

Clinton 54
Obama 45

Turnout: 150,000-200,000

[Democratic Hawk]

Clinton - 57%
Obama - 43%

[True Democrat]

58-42 Clinton

But really it's impossible to predict.

[Verily]

How did NJ and NY Latinos vote (assuming that Puerto Ricans in Puerto Rico mirror those on the mainland)?

NY: 73-26
NJ: 68-30

But they don't, at all, so the point is kind of moot. (Not to mention that Clinton had home state favoritism in New York and basically in the Hispanic areas of New Jersey.)

Anyway, I'll go with 51-49 Obama, because I want to be more accurate than Alcon if Obama wins.

And the most accurate approximation of "Yes, she will" in Spanish would be "Sí, lo hará!" or "Sí, va a hacerlo!" (Yes, [ambiguous gender] will/is going to do it!) The problem for Clinton is that Spanish really doesn't like using pronouns for subjects, so the female gender doesn't carry over (and that's a big part of the message). Then again, "Sí, se puede" doesn't translate as "Yes, we can," but as "Yes, it is possible" (that in itself is a poor translation; "poder" doesn't translate well).

[The Mikado]

Clinton: 56
Obama: 43

I'm stealing your prediction.

[Flying Dog]

Hillary Clinton: 52%
Barack Obama: 47%


Mostly on unbased anecdotal evidence.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Clinton: 54
Obama:45

[MaxQue]

Clinton: 52
Obama: 48

[StateBoiler]

I always wonder if some day a Puerto Rican will run for President.

[J. J.]

Clinton: 62%
Obama: 38%

Turnout: 600.000-800.000

Question: Will there be any Exit Polls on CNN at 9pm ?

The closet, with lower turnout.