VA: Survey USA: Obama up by 2% in VA

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Virginia President by Survey USA on 2008-06-25

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Alcon]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

If the Obama signs and bumperstickers everywhere in Northern Virginia are an indicator, Obama takes Virginia by 18 points.   lol

[Aizen]

A reasonable result that is in line with the last couple of polls out of VA.


However, VP polls = trash.

[Ronnie]

I am becoming less and less confident with SUSA.  Their internals are consistently screwed up.

Maybe the VP options are messing everything up?

[Verily]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Interestingly (or perhaps amusingly), the changes from their previous poll (McCain gains five, Obama stays the same) are entirely derived from McCain's "improvement" among black voters--even though Democrats are far more numerous in this poll than the previous one!

[emailking]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Polls attempt to capture the reality. Not tell you what you already think it should be.

[Alcon]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Polls attempt to capture the reality. Not tell you what you already think it should be.

And oftentimes they do a poor job of capturing reality.

Do you have an explanation for men suddenly becoming much more Republican, and women more Democratic?  How about for McCain suddenly skyrocketing in the black vote, and Obama badly under-performing John Kerry?  Are there other polls that corroborate this?

In every instance, I imagine the answer is "no."  Polls are reflections of phenomena that are qualifiable as well as quantifiable.  Taking them as evidence entirely removed from those qualifiable indicators is an unnecessary reduction of our understanding.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Plus Obama only leads by 4 among the 18-34 age range and leads higher among 35-49?

[Sam Spade]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Polls attempt to capture the reality. Not tell you what you already think it should be.

And oftentimes they do a poor job of capturing reality.

Do you have an explanation for men suddenly becoming much more Republican, and women more Democratic?  How about for McCain suddenly skyrocketing in the black vote, and Obama badly under-performing John Kerry?  Are there other polls that corroborate this?

In every instance, I imagine the answer is "no."  Polls are reflections of phenomena that are qualifiable as well as quantifiable.  Taking them as evidence entirely removed from those qualifiable indicators is an unnecessary reduction of our understanding.

I have trouble with SUSA at this point in the campaign because their polling method is simply too dependent upon enthusiasm to really provide an accurate gauge of what's really going on this early out.  Rasmussen is much better in this regard (and M-D is the best obviously). 

Anyway, it's getting to be summer and a good time to ignore state polls.  I'm ignoring everything state-wise (except for some sprightly jokes) until post-Labor Day after Friday.  I'm not really discounting this poll for what it is - but it is what it is - another data point.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Seems to be in line with the other Virginia polls.

[Flying Dog]

The end result seems reasonable.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

End line seems reasonable, but Obama by 22% in the 35-49 range but only by 4% in the 18-34 range?

[MatthewZD]

If the Obama signs and bumperstickers everywhere in Northern Virginia are an indicator, Obama takes Virginia by 18 points.   lol

Keep in mind that outside of NOVA, the state as a whole is fairly conservative.  Yes, some liberal pockets in areas like Richmond city and Charlottesville, but the rural areas, areas with military bases, and suburban Richmond balance against the more liberal DC suburbs. 

One note about the VP choices they included -- while Jim Webb and Tim Kaine are fairly popular and probably add to Obama's numbers, Bloomberg doesn't add to McCain's.  Bloomberg's threat to sue VA gun stores over firearms being smuggled into NYC doesn't endear him to conservatives.  In fact, it looks like all the VP choices cause a drop in numbers except for Webb.

[emailking]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Polls attempt to capture the reality. Not tell you what you already think it should be.

And oftentimes they do a poor job of capturing reality.

Do you have an explanation for men suddenly becoming much more Republican, and women more Democratic?  How about for McCain suddenly skyrocketing in the black vote, and Obama badly under-performing John Kerry?  Are there other polls that corroborate this?

In every instance, I imagine the answer is "no."  Polls are reflections of phenomena that are qualifiable as well as quantifiable.  Taking them as evidence entirely removed from those qualifiable indicators is an unnecessary reduction of our understanding.

I take every professional poll as it is. I don't sit there and try to argue away the conclusions.

If the day before the New Hampshire primary, a lone poll had shown Hillary up by 6 (within MOE of her actually victory), I'm sure lots of people here would have dissected the internals. Others would have just called it a "trash" poll.

I don't see a need to come up with explanations in order to justify polls. Rather I see the poll as a piece of evidence which tells us something about the electorate.

Yes they are often wrong. Occasionally even wildly so. That's why you don't take it as Gospel. And thats why one gathers as much evidence in the form of polls as possible to draw conclusions.

Polls tell us a lot more than I see them get credit for around here. Eg, if there were no polls, one might conclude from the media coverage/treatment that Obama is way ahead of McCain. We know from polls it's much closer than that. Without polls there would be no way of knowing if Barr was growing like a Perot or just a fringe candidate. From polls we know which is the case.

[Alcon]

Yes...which is why I'm generally very trusting of polls, and base nearly my entire prediction on them.  But if a poll gets a result that's inexplicable vs. the 2004 exit poll results, I think it's fair game to question its veracity.  But I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here.  There's nothing wrong with either of our approaches; they're just different.

[Torie]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Maybe Obama is getting too "white" for "blacks" or something. What do you think? 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Maybe Obama is getting too "white" for "blacks" or something. What do you think? 

and that's causing them to vote for an old white Republican? right

Blacks have been voting for white democrats as long as anyone on this forum has been alive. I doubt a few moves to the center on Obama's part will hurt his position in the community that much. Does VA have a tradition of Black Republicanism?

Otherwise I'd just chalk it up to sampling errors. Some of the other internals in the poll are very weird, as others have noted.

[Tender Branson]

Democrats have a 12-point registration advantage in Virginia?  A gender gap of 40 points?  McCain getting 25% of the black vote?

Sigh.

Maybe Obama is getting too "white" for "blacks" or something. What do you think? 

Obama will get 94-96% of VA Blacks. That´s what I think.

[Alcon]

Does VA have a tradition of Black Republicanism?

Not really, no.

[Torie]

Does VA have a tradition of Black Republicanism?

Not really, no.

It did actually. In fact, I think Nixon carried Richmond blacks in 1960. Those days are long gone of course.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Does VA have a tradition of Black Republicanism?

Not really, no.

It did actually. In fact, I think Nixon carried Richmond blacks in 1960. Those days are long gone of course.

Nixon won 32% of the black vote in the 1960 general election.  I know it does seem amazing today...