National Research 2000 Poll: Obama 51 - McCain 39

[Wiz in Wis]

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV, KCRG-TV, WSBT-TV, The Concord Monitor, et al. July 25-27, 2008. N=1,100 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all likely voters)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

[Flying Dog]

I was expecting as much. The one-time polls seem to most always have Obama's margin bigger then the trackers. When the tracking polls had Obama's lead at 2-3%, the one-time polls had it at 7-8%. Now that the trackers are showing 7-8% lead, one could assume that the one-time polls would be about 4-5% above that.

Still,

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It can't be right, however,

[Flying Dog]

Obama continues to show surprising strength among Hispanics: 65-24. He also matches Kerry's performance among whites: 41% McCain leads 49-41. 

[Aizen]

Was that Europe/Middle-east trip really that big of a deal to the masses?

[JohnCA246]

It was like a convention.  I dont thik many people were truly inspired but it got him a week's good publicity, and many people base their vote on last week's publicity.

[Aizen]

It was like a convention.  I dont thik many people were truly inspired but it got him a week's good publicity, and many people base their vote on last week's publicity.

Yeah, I was expecting like a 1-2 point bounce for Obama. When you step back and think about it, it is pretty scary how powerful the media is. Or how ignorant the masses are.

[Dan the Roman]

Well to be fair, I think it wasn't as much Obama's trip, as McCain's poor reaction to it. At least that was what affected me most in the last week.

Also, while nothing actually happened, the difference in stature was enormous, and foreign leaders on the Right such as Merkel, Sarkozy, and Cameron left no doubt as to who they would prefer to deal with at some risk to their future relations with a potential McCain Administration.

[Tender Branson]

If Obama is receiving about 80-81% of the minority vote, which will account for about 26% of the electorate in November, Obama could win the election with just 39% of the white vote.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Am I the only one who finds in strange that a Senator from Arizona with a strong relationship with the Latino community is doing markedly worse than Bush?

[Eleanor Martins]

He's lost the attachment of the Hispanic voters who base their decision on social issues. I don't think that's a problem in itself because their overt Catholicism and conservatism are a dying breed as they break out of their enclaves, but for the here and now it would explain the disparity in percentages.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not that suprising, barring any major unforeseen event the race is pretty much over.  However, MSM profits financially from presenting the presidential race as a tossup.  Same thing with the Obama, Clinton primaries.  The media did everything it could to prolong the race and keep Clinton from dropping out (yet for some reason some people remain convinced that MSM favored Obama, despite all evidence to the contrary).

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well to be fair, I think it wasn't as much Obama's trip, as McCain's poor reaction to it. At least that was what affected me most in the last week.

Also, while nothing actually happened, the difference in stature was enormous, and foreign leaders on the Right such as Merkel, Sarkozy, and Cameron left no doubt as to who they would prefer to deal with at some risk to their future relations with a potential McCain Administration.

What are you trying to imply?  Merkel was hospitable to Obama but thought his idea to have a speech at the gate was bizarre. Don't know that much about what Cameron thinks, but if you think Sarkozy wants Obama to win, you are off your rocker.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Research 2000 is a very Democrat (left) polling organization.

As a rule of thumb for Research 2000 polls, take the cube root of of the Democrat percentage and subtract that from the Democrat number, then take the cube root of the Republican percentage, and add it to the Republican number.  Example:

Party          Reported Research 2000          Modified Research 2000

Democrat                  51 %                                        48 %
Republican                39                                            41   

Notice how the modified numbers are within the range of most national polls?

[RJ]

Research 2000 is a very Democrat (left) polling organization.

As a rule of thumb for Research 2000 polls, take the cube root of of the Democrat percentage and subtract that from the Democrat number, then take the cube root of the Republican percentage, and add it to the Republican number.  Example:

Party          Reported Research 2000          Modified Research 2000

Democrat                  51 %                                        48 %
Republican                39                                            41   

Notice how the modified numbers are within the range of most national polls?

If I'm reading this right, the cube root of 51 is a greater than 3. It's actually closer to 4 when you account for whole numbers. It's in the 3.7 range. The cube root of 41 is closer to 3.5 as well, making it closer to a 47-42 or 47-43 race according to that formula.

[Tender Branson]

Another reason why we can toss this poll:

According to the Research2000 crosstabs, the party breakdown is 37% Democrats, 29% Independents, 25% Republicans and 9% "Others/Refused" ...