CO: ARG poll: McCain leads Obama by 3%

[mypalfish]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/CO08.html

[Rococo4]

wish they had a better reputation. 

[Sam Spade]

wish they had a better any reputation. 

Corrected.

[Tender Branson]

Every poll has shown Obama getting a higher share among Democrats than McCain gets among Republicans. So, ARG, why exactly should this have changed now ?

[Aizen]

Obama does better with men than women. Who knew?

[Eraserhead]

I'm moving Colorado from "tossup" to "lean obama".

[Rowan]

Most realistic party ID I have seen from a CO poll.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Crap.

[Person Man]

Most realistic party ID I have seen from a CO poll.

1- Obama isn't up by just 4 among indies.
2- The GOP only has a one point advantage, instead of 3.

So, this would probably come out as Obama +1.

[auburntiger]

I still say this state is the tipping point...neither lean McCain nor lean Obama...just pure and simple TOSSUP

[Rowan]

Most realistic party ID I have seen from a CO poll.

1- Obama isn't up by just 4 among indies.
2- The GOP only has a one point advantage, instead of 3.

So, this would probably come out as Obama +1.

Actually you are wrong. Registration numbers from the Colorado SOS:

R 34.1%
I 33.8%
D 31.6%

So R's have a 2.5% advantage. So any poll claiming more D's than R's will vote in CO is just plain wrong.

[Democratic Hawk]

Most realistic party ID I have seen from a CO poll.

1- Obama isn't up by just 4 among indies.
2- The GOP only has a one point advantage, instead of 3.

So, this would probably come out as Obama +1.

Actually you are wrong. Registration numbers from the Colorado SOS:

R 34.1%
I 33.8%
D 31.6%

So R's have a 2.5% advantage. So any poll claiming more D's than R's will vote in CO is just plain wrong.

Although Republicans do have a registration advantage in CO, it doesn't necessarily follow that they'd outnumber Democrats among likely voters

Dave

[Rowan]

Most realistic party ID I have seen from a CO poll.

1- Obama isn't up by just 4 among indies.
2- The GOP only has a one point advantage, instead of 3.

So, this would probably come out as Obama +1.

Actually you are wrong. Registration numbers from the Colorado SOS:

R 34.1%
I 33.8%
D 31.6%

So R's have a 2.5% advantage. So any poll claiming more D's than R's will vote in CO is just plain wrong.

Although Republicans do have a registration advantage in CO, it doesn't necessarily follow that they'd outnumber Democrats among likely voters

Dave

Why wouldn't it? Republicans have a greater history of turnout than Democrats.

[Nutmeg]

This is wonderful.

[Smash255]

Most realistic party ID I have seen from a CO poll.

1- Obama isn't up by just 4 among indies.
2- The GOP only has a one point advantage, instead of 3.

So, this would probably come out as Obama +1.

Actually you are wrong. Registration numbers from the Colorado SOS:

R 34.1%
I 33.8%
D 31.6%

So R's have a 2.5% advantage. So any poll claiming more D's than R's will vote in CO is just plain wrong.

Although Republicans do have a registration advantage in CO, it doesn't necessarily follow that they'd outnumber Democrats among likely voters

Dave

Why wouldn't it? Republicans have a greater history of turnout than Democrats.

Not always, and depends on the areas.  Areas with a highly educated population tend to be among the strongest to turnout, and the Dems strengths in CO, are in many of these areas.  Also party registration and the actual way someone identifies themselves are not always hand and hand.  Suburban Denver, especially areas such as Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties likely have a decent number of people who may consider themselves Independent or even Democratic, but are registered as Republican.  This is likely true, but in reverse in some parts of the south.

[Rowan]

Most realistic party ID I have seen from a CO poll.

1- Obama isn't up by just 4 among indies.
2- The GOP only has a one point advantage, instead of 3.

So, this would probably come out as Obama +1.

Actually you are wrong. Registration numbers from the Colorado SOS:

R 34.1%
I 33.8%
D 31.6%

So R's have a 2.5% advantage. So any poll claiming more D's than R's will vote in CO is just plain wrong.

Although Republicans do have a registration advantage in CO, it doesn't necessarily follow that they'd outnumber Democrats among likely voters

Dave

Why wouldn't it? Republicans have a greater history of turnout than Democrats.

Not always, and depends on the areas.  Areas with a highly educated population tend to be among the strongest to turnout, and the Dems strengths in CO, are in many of these areas.  Also party registration and the actual way someone identifies themselves are not always hand and hand.  Suburban Denver, especially areas such as Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties likely have a decent number of people who may consider themselves Independent or even Democratic, but are registered as Republican.  This is likely true, but in reverse in some parts of the south.

That is ridiculous. A registered Republican would not self identify as a Democrat. That is just silly.

[minionofmidas]

This joke poll came just in time to take Obama back below 270 on this site's poll aggregate.

[Dan the Roman]

Most realistic party ID I have seen from a CO poll.

1- Obama isn't up by just 4 among indies.
2- The GOP only has a one point advantage, instead of 3.

So, this would probably come out as Obama +1.

Actually you are wrong. Registration numbers from the Colorado SOS:

R 34.1%
I 33.8%
D 31.6%

So R's have a 2.5% advantage. So any poll claiming more D's than R's will vote in CO is just plain wrong.

Although Republicans do have a registration advantage in CO, it doesn't necessarily follow that they'd outnumber Democrats among likely voters

Dave

Why wouldn't it? Republicans have a greater history of turnout than Democrats.

Not always, and depends on the areas.  Areas with a highly educated population tend to be among the strongest to turnout, and the Dems strengths in CO, are in many of these areas.  Also party registration and the actual way someone identifies themselves are not always hand and hand.  Suburban Denver, especially areas such as Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties likely have a decent number of people who may consider themselves Independent or even Democratic, but are registered as Republican.  This is likely true, but in reverse in some parts of the south.

That is ridiculous. A registered Republican would not self identify as a Democrat. That is just silly.

Lol. There are plenty of reasons why people would be registered differently. In large parts of Colorado it is a one party state at the local level, and most of the interesting races are on the GOP side. I know many people who registered just for Lamborn primary race.

Also people rarely change registration if there is no reason. There are people who are registered Democrat who have not voted that way in nearly a decade and vice versa for Republicans. Look at registration v. party id in any southern state, registration tracks far behind. In the case of Colorado, it like New Hampshire has had a massive shift that has run ahead of party id. Dems almost certainly outnumbered Republicans in 2006, and I am pretty sure that the exit polls will show the same thing this year.

.