Bush +4 (LV) +3 (RV) says NBC

[The Vorlon]

UPDATE - UPDATE

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6073871/

LVs 50 - 46
RVs  48 - 45

UPDATE - UPDATE

This poll will be released today at +/- 4.30 EST.

This poll has undergone some very substantial internal changes as well.

This poll used to be conducted by the Bi-Partisan duo of Peter Hart (D) and Bob Teeter (R)

As many of you know Bob Tetter recently passed away and has been replaced by Bill McInturff (R) of the firm Public Opinion Strategies.

Unlike Teeter/Hart the "new" Hart/McInturff poll does invoke a weight by party ID it's a floating weight based on tracking poll results not a fixed assumption however, and hence  they will use a ratio a bit different than Zogby's/Rasmussen's 39/35/26.

They use a simplified and looser "likely" voter screen than the old Teeter/Hart poll did, which makes it a bit more Dem friendly than the older Teeter/Hart poll

This is the first LV poll this duo is releasing for WSJ/NBC so I am not 100% sure of all the little methodological quirks yet.  Hart and McInturff when doing things for their own firms do thing VERY differently.

Both are really excellent pollsters, but very different.  I am curious to see their results, and REALLY curious to see how their two rather different approaches are getting blended together.

I'll take a flyer and guess that this poll will show Bush +3 or so. (that's +/- 6% on the +3, +/- 3.5%)

[Sam Spade]

FYI, to give the Kerry supporters a little positive news, I was reading ABC's The Note and they had this little passage within one of their writings that I think was referring to this poll:

"There's the fact that two of America's leading news organizations (who poll together) are about to release some horserace numbers that are going to suggest a tight race and tease out the "Kerry closes the gap with momentum" storyline for which the press hungers. (As Joe Lockhart would say, EVERYONE in Washington knows about these poll numbers …)"

Makes me guess that your 3-point lead assumption is probably dead on, maybe less.

[CARLHAYDEN]

FYI, to give the Kerry supporters a little positive news, I was reading ABC's The Note and they had this little passage within one of their writings that I think was referring to this poll:

"There's the fact that two of America's leading news organizations (who poll together) are about to release some horserace numbers that are going to suggest a tight race and tease out the "Kerry closes the gap with momentum" storyline for which the press hungers. (As Joe Lockhart would say, EVERYONE in Washington knows about these poll numbers …)"

Makes me guess that your 3-point lead assumption is probably dead on, maybe less.

Read my first post on the "interesting developments" thread on the salvaged posts thread.

Is what I predicted happening?

Are their words pretty close to the words I stated they would use?

[Sam Spade]

Vorlon:

I also am reporting this based on National Review's Kerry Spot link here.

The guy there says it will be:

Bush 50%, Kerry 46% among LV
Bush 48%, Kerry 45% among RV

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp

FWIW, the last NBC/WSJ conducted before the RNC from 8/23-8/25 had it Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 3 among RV.  I don't know whether these are Nader included numbers or head to head numbers.

[Sam Spade]

Well, it would be funny if they used those words because in comparison to the last WSJ/NBC poll, Bush has gained a point among RV.

All in all, this seems to match up well with the triumvirate of Zogby, IBD, and Rasmussen which do definite hard weightings of 39D, 35R, 26I.

IOW, Bush lead of 3-4%.  If turnout is even between parties this year, which I believe it will be, Bush by 4-5%

[The Vorlon]

IOW, Bush lead of 3-4%.  If turnout is even between parties this year, which I believe it will be, Bush by 4-5%

If turnout is even, Bush wins by 8 if he wins by 4 at 39/35/26

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Cool!

+4 among LV is pretty good for Bush considering this poll was taken over the weekend (Sept 17-19)

Judging from where the campaigns are buying TV time, I'd say Bush is up 6-7 points among likely voters, which is comparable to a 10-11 point lead during other less-polarizing years.

IMO

[Light Touch]

Off topic, but Vorlon, your electoral map signature seems to have Badnarik winning Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

While heartened by that notion, I suspect that's not the case.

[The Vorlon]

Off topic, but Vorlon, your electoral map signature seems to have Badnarik winning Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

While heartened by that notion, I suspect that's not the case.

Yellow = State Under Review.. No current ranking

I just go a very long and detailed poll on a bunch of battlegrounds that included these states.  It is from a firm I trust a great deal, and I want to read it very carefully before I update these three states.

Badnarik... is a longshot... in these three states.  he seems to have a decent shot at breaking 1% however

[J-Mann]

What will be interesting is that if Kerry starts making up ground in several polls, his campaign team will start paying attention to the polls again.  A woman with his campaign was on Fox the other day playing down the polls.  Of course, if the situation reversed, Kerry's team would be playing up the polls and Bush's group would be "ignoring" them.  Ahhh, politics...gotta love it!

[Light Touch]

Yellow = State Under Review.. No current ranking

I just go a very long and detailed poll on a bunch of battlegrounds that included these states.  It is from a firm I trust a great deal, and I want to read it very carefully before I update these three states.

Badnarik... is a longshot... in these three states.  he seems to have a decent shot at breaking 1% however

Gotcha -- I figured it was that or a toss-up gone awry.

Do you think Badnarik will ultimately have an impact in any states?  Will the NM/NV media blitz turn into Nov 2 results?  What do you think will be the peak % Badnarik receives in a state?

Hopefully more than Browne in Georgia in 2000.