1992 - Not many Dems were lining up to challenge Bush 41 because of his sky-high approval ratings. This resulted in a smaller and weaker field than usual. Is the same thing going to happen with the Republicans in 2012? Obama seems unstoppable, so instead of potential superstar candidates such as Jindal or Gingrich are we going to see a mediocre field?
Then, if a single very solid candidate enters the race, will he/she dominate the field?
Considering that any strong Republican candidate would overwhelm the political mediocrities now in it -- yes. That's almost tautological.
I don't see a good parallel between Obama in 2009 and GHWB in 1988 aside from a sweeping victory and early high popularity. GHWB had some spectacular successes in foreign policy (although those took some time) but little domestic agenda. Once he exhausted his successes in foreign policy, GHWB had no second act. With Obama, domestic policy comes first and foreign policy comes as opportunities present themselves. Such is an opposite view of political life. Add to that, Obama was voted in in part to repudiate the follies of his predecessor and not to continue the achievements of the predecessor.
Foreign policy disasters and domestic failure can still defeat Obama. It's still that early. As for the effects of an "L-shaped recovery" not being enough for most Americans... that may be the best that we can get and by 2012 our economic expectations may be far lower than they were in, say, 2005.
