Kerry +2 in PA according to Temple U./Inquirer Poll

[Pollwatch99]

I agree with your EV projection; right on.  However, the equal weight of 40/40/20 puzzles me?  Most weights give the Dems 3 or 4 points based upon 2000 actual turnout.  Why weight equally?

I was hoping you'd say that was PA specific turnout.  Nice job.

39/35/26 is the NATIONAL exit polls from 2000

40/40/20 is the Pennsylvania exit polls from 2000.

If it makes sense to use 39/35/26 Nationally, it makes just as much sense (or nonsense depending on perspective)  to use 40/40/20 in Pennsylvania

[Giant Saguaro]

The NRA was often credited with getting WV for Bush in 2000. Is that a fair assessment? Sounds like they'll try it again, now in PA.

I think PA will be the location for some of the largest GOTV and Voter Registration drives in the country.

Agreed. The thing about the NRA in reference to PA is that on a percentile basis, PA has one of the upper/higher numbers of NRA memberships in the country. It may even be in the top 5, but I don't know for sure. And a decent measure of it is in western PA old school Democratic areas, which is interesting. Sure, much of it is in already GOP areas. So it's logical that they (NRA) would attack there. And WV is a given, guns are just part of the culture there.

No, the NRA is not popular in Philly, but there isn't a lot a GOP candidate for President could do to be popular there, so the fact that the NRA backs Bush doesn't do any damage. Pataki or Giuliani likely wouldn't even run well there. I mean maybe they would for PA Governor or US Senate or House of Reps or for a state office, but not for President of the US.

[J. J.]

And I don't think the "T' will be as strong for Bush either.  There are a lot of Kerry supporters out in Harrisburg and State College and VERY strong support in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre-Hazleton area.

The Harrisburg area, Dauphin County, went for Bush in 2000.  Centre, which trends GOP, did go for Gore, but that's where Penn State is.   A sizable portion of the Gore voters graduated and went on.

If I remember, he only carried the T by 58%.  I'd expect the numbers to increase, but not enough if he loses the Phila suburbs.

[Gabu]

Kerry being up by 2 points doesn't sound crazy but I don't think that's the case in PA right now. Bush +2-3 in the Keystone state.

Since the margin of error is +/- 3, this result of Kerry +2 does not rule out the idea that the actual current state is Bush +2-3.

[J. J.]

Fayette County isn't in SW PA no more?

Your right, it's easier to say it's all counties in PA boardering Allegheney, Washington, and Beaver Counties.  

With the possible exception Butler, all these have Dem registration edge, usually greater than 2 to 1.  Still, Republicans win there.