TX: Big $$ on the Dem Side [even though there is no race yet]

[Lunar]

Remember KBH isn't up for reelection until 2012, this is an imaginary race until she actually leaves the Senate.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/8413/txsen-democrats-significantly-outraise-republicans

The two Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate, former comptroller John Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White, hold significant advantages in cash on hand over their Republican opponents after the first fundraising quarter.

As we previously reported, Bill White raised $1,876,163 this quarter and began April with $2,131,638 on hand. White received contributions from 1,400 Texans. No personal loans were included in his totals this quarter.

John Sharp reported receiving $2,516,833 in loans and contributions this quarter to finish with $2,432,675 on hand. The number, in itself, is impressive but as Gardner Selby points out, we should reserve judgement until we learn how much of that money was from personal loans. Today, when asked, the Sharp campaign declined to disclose that information.


Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams leads the Republican contenders with $388,628 on hand, but that number is less impressive when the $200,000 in personal loans are taken into account. State Sen. Florence Shapiro had just over $310,000 on hand, while Railroad Commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams have $164,663 and $113,957 on hand, respectively.

The Democratic money advantage, however, may not last. Well financed candidates such as Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who would pour his personal wealth into a campaign, and Attorney General Greg Abbott are also said to be considering the race.

When the amount of Sharp's personal loans are known, we will have a better idea of how the money race is shaping up on the Democratic side.

[Lief 🗽]

Duh. Rich Democratic trial lawyers gotta do something with their money.

I'm afraid White and Sharp will spend it all on destroying each other in the primary though.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Prediction: 55-43 for the Republican.

[Dan the Roman]

Prediction: 55-43 for the Republican.

To be fair Sharp is a much stronger candidate than any the Democrats have run since the 1970s. He would probably lose more like 51-46.

That said he really should be running for governor. Him against Perry would be a toss-up to even lean dem.

[The Mikado]

Prediction: 55-43 for the Republican.

No.  John Sharp is still a reasonably big name and White is famous in the area of the state that the Dems need to improve most in.

That being said, I don't think either of them could get much past 47 or so.  But 55-43 are Cornyn-Kirk numbers.  They'll do much better than that.

[© tweed]

sucks that it's a prez year or the Dems might have a ghost of a trace of a fighting chance

[Lunar]

sucks that it's a prez year or the Dems might have a ghost of a trace of a fighting chance

Not necessarily, it could easily be 2010 or, less likely, a special election.

KBH isn't staying into the Senate until 2012 if she has anything to say about it.

[© tweed]

sucks that it's a prez year or the Dems might have a ghost of a trace of a fighting chance

Not necessarily, it could easily be 2010 or, less likely, a special election.

KBH isn't staying into the Senate until 2012 if she has anything to say about it.

wouldn't she have to resign during the gubernatorial campaign in order for this not to happen in 2012?

[Lunar]

sucks that it's a prez year or the Dems might have a ghost of a trace of a fighting chance

Not necessarily, it could easily be 2010 or, less likely, a special election.

KBH isn't staying into the Senate until 2012 if she has anything to say about it.

wouldn't she have to resign during the gubernatorial campaign in order for this not to happen in 2012?

She can't be governor and senator at the same time.

The governor's race in 2010.

[© tweed]

sucks that it's a prez year or the Dems might have a ghost of a trace of a fighting chance

Not necessarily, it could easily be 2010 or, less likely, a special election.

KBH isn't staying into the Senate until 2012 if she has anything to say about it.

wouldn't she have to resign during the gubernatorial campaign in order for this not to happen in 2012?

She can't be governor and senator at the same time.

The governor's race in 2010.

ok but she wouldn't be sworn in as Gov until, what, mid-January 2011?  she would only have to resign by then, and I don't know anything about the law here, but in most places the election would have to wait until 2012

[Sam Spade]

KBH is not a fool.  She will resign sometime after the primary at the exact point where a special election will be scheduled at the same time as the 2010 general election.

[Lunar]

sucks that it's a prez year or the Dems might have a ghost of a trace of a fighting chance

Not necessarily, it could easily be 2010 or, less likely, a special election.

KBH isn't staying into the Senate until 2012 if she has anything to say about it.

wouldn't she have to resign during the gubernatorial campaign in order for this not to happen in 2012?

She can't be governor and senator at the same time.

The governor's race in 2010.

ok but she wouldn't be sworn in as Gov until, what, mid-January 2011?  she would only have to resign by then, and I don't know anything about the law here, but in most places the election would have to wait until 2012

If she waited until the very last second, assuming she wins, I believe there would be a special election held in early 2011, but she could appoint her own temporary successor.  As Sam said though, she's probably not going to dick around though.

[jimrtex]

sucks that it's a prez year or the Dems might have a ghost of a trace of a fighting chance

Not necessarily, it could easily be 2010 or, less likely, a special election.

KBH isn't staying into the Senate until 2012 if she has anything to say about it.

Under Texas law, an election to fill a senate vacancy, that occurs in an even year early enough to hold primaries will be held as an ordinary election, with party primaries and a November general election.  But because the primary has been moved forward so early in the year, it is impossible, at least in 2010, for this to happen.

So any election to fill the vacancy will be held as a special election (and runoff) with no primaries.  It will either be held on the uniform election date in May or November, depending on the time of the vacancy so (May 2010, November 2010, or May 2011).  The governor may also schedule this as an emergency election.

Probably the best for the Republicans would be November 2010.  In Texas, voters can choose the primary they vote in on election day in March.  This could result in voters choosing the Republican gubernatorial primary, and produce a relatively unknown winner in the Democrat primary.  The special election on the November ballot will be held without straight ticket voting.  So you have reduced Democratic participation plus remove the opportunity to vote straight ticket for senator.

[Lunar]

so.... now the chances of KBH retiring early to focus entirely on running against Perry have gone up, although that all depends on how much she wants to stay in the Senate in case she loses...