OR: Survey USA: Chris Dudley now ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Oregon Governor by Survey USA on 2010-06-09

Summary: D: 40%, R: 47%, I: 6%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

That's not good.

[SvenssonRS]

Well, that's an interesting result...for a minute, I thought this was Rasmussen.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, that's an interesting result...for a minute, I thought this was Rasmussen.

SurveyUSA also impersonated Rasmussen with their Washington Senate poll which was dismissed by both Murray's and Rossi's campaigns.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Something's fishy here (not saying it's deliberate or anything, but possibly a bad poll)...

I seriously doubt a plurality of Oregonians are tea-baggers (as is the case according to this poll).  Also, according to the most recent edition of the Almanac of American Politics, Oregon's party registration is 43.2% Dem, 32.3% GOP, 24.5% independent.  However, the poll's sample is 38% Dem, 35% GOP, and 26% independent.  Hispanics are 10.2% of the population, not 6%.  Whites are 80.8%, not 88%.  No way is Kitzhaber trailing in Portland (even Bradbury won Portland in 2002).  Maybe I'm way off with this, but color me sceptical.  

[Badger]

Something's fishy here (not saying it's deliberate or anything, but possibly a bad poll)...

I seriously doubt a plurality of Oregonians are tea-baggers (as is the case according to this poll).  Also, according to the most recent edition of the Almanac of American Politics, Oregon's party registration is 43.2% Dem, 32.3% GOP, 24.5% independent.  However, the poll's sample is 38% Dem, 35% GOP, and 26% independent.  Hispanics are 10.2% of the population, not 6%.  Whites are 80.8%, not 88%. No way is Kitzhaber trailing in Portland (even Bradbury won Portland in 2002).  Maybe I'm way off with this, but color me sceptical.  

This is the most suspicious part of the poll. Even if they meant "Portland region" and they're showing basically a tie there, that's hard to swallow. That said, the Progressive Party candidate could be a real spoiler for Kitzhaber.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its not Portland or Portland region. Its Portland Media market. Some poster (can't remember who) had a map of Oregon in his sig a few months back with essentially the Whole NW Part of the state colored in and said "This is Portland according to SurveyUSA".

Something's fishy here (not saying it's deliberate or anything, but possibly a bad poll)...

I seriously doubt a plurality of Oregonians are tea-baggers (as is the case according to this poll).  Also, according to the most recent edition of the Almanac of American Politics, Oregon's party registration is 43.2% Dem, 32.3% GOP, 24.5% independent.  However, the poll's sample is 38% Dem, 35% GOP, and 26% independent.  Hispanics are 10.2% of the population, not 6%.  Whites are 80.8%, not 88%.  No way is Kitzhaber trailing in Portland (even Bradbury won Portland in 2002).  Maybe I'm way off with this, but color me sceptical. 

If its a poll of "likely voters" then those numbers actually make more sense as Indy and GOP turnout will be larger then normal proportionally.

[bgwah]

I don't buy it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I saw in other polls done by SurveyUSA, that they ask a question about the tea party with four choices: member, support, oppose, don't know.


Generally while only a small number are "members" a plurality supports them over opposes them in most states.

[sg0508]

Oregon's GOP supposedly is VERY conservative and thus, the Teabag movement would be strong there. 

In some parts of OR, they also have some very controversial groups (will not mention what) that exist in droves.

Gordon Smith was more so an outlier for the type of republicans that have been elected there.

Would be great though if the party could finally breakthrough again on a statewide level.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The GOP always does well here at first then loses it at the end. The same thing happened with Ron Saxton in 2006. We shall see if that occurs again. OR may be getting tired of Democrats in the State House.

Oregon's GOP supposedly is VERY conservative and thus, the Teabag movement would be strong there. 

In some parts of OR, they also have some very controversial groups (will not mention what) that exist in droves.

Gordon Smith was more so an outlier for the type of republicans that have been elected there.

Would be great though if the party could finally breakthrough again on a statewide level.

What? Ever heard of Bob Packwood or Mark Hatfield. OR has a strong tradition of moderate Republicanism. Now, today the party has moved to the right but its not that extremely Conservative.

[Meeker]

Something smelly about this one. We should also hope it's wrong because Chris Dudley has absolutely no qualifications to be Governor of Oregon whatsoever and Kitzhaber is a FF to the highest degree.

[cinyc]

Its not Portland or Portland region. Its Portland Media market. Some poster (can't remember who) had a map of Oregon in his sig a few months back with essentially the Whole NW Part of the state colored in and said "This is Portland according to SurveyUSA".

I don't know if that's the case, but, quite frankly, breaking down polling by media market makes sense since the ad buys will be by media market.   The Portland DMA covers much more than just NW Oregon - it stretches to Gilliam County along the Columbia River and generally 2 counties further south and then into four sparsely populated counties of Eastern Oregon that aren't on the Columbia River (Grant, Baker, Union, Harney).

Why is anyone surprised that a former Portland Trail Blazer would be doing well in the Portland area, especially among men?

[Torie]

Boy, these gubernatorial polls are turning into looking like the Pacific Ocean - almost all blue with a few specks of a more earth tone color.