NY: Siena Research Institute: Gillibrand holds large lead in RV poll

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: New York Senator (Special) by Siena Research Institute on 2010-09-21

Summary: D: 57%, R: 31%, I: 0%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Phony Moderate]

We have now obviously reached that point in the campaign where the polls start to contradict each other, for whatever reason.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We have now obviously reached that point in the campaign where the polls start to contradict each other, for whatever reason.

"Because this is registered voters" is a good place to start.

The idea that a race in New York could be close at this point, given the candidates, is a factor of the national mood/enthusiasm gap and nothing more. A registered voters poll won't show an enthusiasm gap at all.

Not that I'm saying Cuomo/Gillibrand will lose or anything, it's just that a poll of registered voters would completely and totally miss that boat.

[Beet]

New York (and possibly California) is the kind of state where having Obama campaign could actually help wake Democrats up.

[Zarn]

This is certainly the outlier of the group.

[Eraserhead]

This is certainly the outlier of the group.

I don't think it's really an outlier. It's just that it's a poll of registered voters instead of likely voters.

[Lief 🗽]

Still, I have a hard time believing that the enthusiasm gap equals a 20-point difference in Gillibrand's lead.

[Smash255]

Still, I have a hard time believing that the enthusiasm gap equals a 20-point difference in Gillibrand's lead.

Exactly, fact of the matter is the gap between Democrats and Republicans on Election Day is not going to be a 16 point difference from the Registered voter gap.  Will it be less than the 25 point gap?  Yes, but it sure as hell isn't going to be 9.

[fezzyfestoon]

Siena sucks, why do we even consider their polls?  They're wildly Democratic and almost never line up with other polls or reality.