reagan84
Rookie
Posts: 66
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« on: November 17, 2010, 11:50:18 PM » |
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I've been doing some research of select cities and trends in voting patterns. Here's a list of how certain urban/suburban counties voted in 1988 (Bush won by 7.5% overall) Los Angeles- Dukakis- 52-47 Chicago- Dukakis 56-44 Philly- Dukakis 67-32 Arlington, VA- Dukakis 54-45 Farifax, VA- Bush 61-38 Memphis- Bush 51-48 Charlotte- Bush 59-40 DeKalb- Dukakis 50-49 (Atlanta area) Prince George- Dukakis 60-39 (MD side of DC) That's enough to give you an idea. San Fran, NYC always were very liberal but current democratic strongholds were not always this way. I was especially surprised by how competitive Chicago was. Many urban areas of Republican states backed the GOP by a larger percentage than the state as a whole.
Now let's look at 2004 with another northeastern liberal atop the DEM ticket. I chose '88 vs '04 because of that similarity. Bush won this time by 2.5% so DEM gains of more than 5 points indicate a real trend. LA county- Kerry 64-35 (12) Chicago- Kerry- 70-30 (14) Philly- Kerry 80-20 (13) Arlington- Kerry 67-32 (13) Fairfax- Kerry 53-46 (15) Memphis- Kerry 57-42 (9) Charlotte- Kerry 52-47 (12) DeKalb- Kerry 73-26 (23) Prince George- Kerry 82-17 (22) Now the question, what if anything can the GOP do to reverse this trend? First off, don't nominate Sarah Palin and I'd stay away from Huckabee as well. As for the DEMs, they certainly will be a lot more competitive in rural areas as well as conservative suburban areas if they moved to the center on social issues.
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