first free elections in Tunisia, October 23

[Beet]

Here's a link on Al-Aridha al-Chaabia. It seems like just another example of a far right party coming out of nowhere to do surprisingly well. In this case Tunisia is not all to different from her neighbors to the north (except for Poland, where we saw the opposite recently).

Anyway, from Teddy's last update, I presume
Right - 87
Left - 52
Single Seat Parties - 15

[Insula Dei]

Here's a link on Al-Aridha al-Chaabia. It seems like just another example of a far right party coming out of nowhere to do surprisingly well. In this case Tunisia is not all to different from her neighbors to the north (except for Poland, where we saw the opposite recently).

Anyway, from Teddy's last update, I presume
Right - 87
Left - 52
Single Seat Parties - 15

I think though the labels 'left' and 'right' may be even more than usual of doubtfull use given the various ideological parameters involved and the nature of the elected body.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

A better outcome (from the western, slightly Islamophobic perspective) would be for Ennahda to form a coalition government with a secular and/or liberal party.

They've started talks with CPR and Ettakol.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15466926

Should be a nice enough coalition. Thankfully Tunisia seems to be moving in the right direction.

Agreed. But then, I don't have the same sort of existential angst about religious influence in politics that a lot of people who are otherwise of a feather with me politically (understandably) often do.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Where's jmfcts and "omg, islamists won in Tunisia, mayhem is coming!"?

Oh wait, it's Al board. Jmf is probably under death sentence in absentia here

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Anyway, do we know when presidential election is going to be held? Mebazaa has been Acting President since January, way too long in regard stating election must be held up to 60 days after vacancy (in this case, Ben Ali removal).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

78 - Conservatives, Renaissance, Ennahda, En Nahda
26 - Civil Liberties, centre-left, CPR
25 - Aridha Chaabia (Personalist - Mohamed Hechim Hamdi)
19 - Coalition, PDM, PDP + Afek Tounes
18 - Social Democrat, Ettakatol, ETTAKATOL, Et Takatol
5 - Al Moubadara
3 - Communist, PCOT
2 - Mouvement du Peuple
16 - Single Seat Parties
192 of 217 seats assigned

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

78 - Conservatives, Renaissance, Ennahda, En Nahda
26 - Civil Liberties, centre-left, CPR
25 - Aridha Chaabia (Personalist - Mohamed Hechim Hamdi)
19 - Coalition, PDM, PDP + Afek Tounes
18 - Social Democrat, Ettakatol, ETTAKATOL, Et Takatol
6 - Pro CDR, Al Moubadara + Al Mostakol
4 - Communist, PCOT + MPD (Marxist)
16 - Other parties, 2 seats or less
192 of 217 seats assigned


78 - Conservatives, Renaissance, Ennahda, En Nahda
26 - Liberal, Civil Liberties, centre-left, CPR
25 - Populist, Aridha Chaabia (Personalist - Mohamed Hechim Hamdi)
19 - Centre-Left, Coalition, PDM, PDP + Afek Tounes
18 - Social Democrat, Ettakatol, ETTAKATOL, Et Takatol
26 - Other parties, 10 seats or less
192 of 217 seats assigned

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ennahda steady with 40% of seats. Sigh...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Only Tunis and Kasserine seats outstanding.

[minionofmidas]

Let me reiterate this (even though I understand nobody has an explanation).

Why in the world is Aridha Chaabia so strong ? I think nobody saw this coming...

From what I read:
1. It's populist, and all that entails
2. The guy behind it has a TV channel which is influent and has stacks of money
3. He's moderate, friendly to Islamists without being one and friendly to the RCD regime without being one.

Anybody know of somewhere with data on all raw votes or at least % vote by party by district?

So, in substance, people have voted even more stupidly than expected.

He replaced the Coalition as the choice of vote of people who didn't think a revolution necessary. You think they didn't exist? All the ptb support in the world couldn't have kept Ben Ali's regime alive for so long if they did not.
He probably managed to do so by running a good campaign with dubious reams of money.
As far as I can see.

EDIT:

"As more information emerges about Aridha Chaabia leader Hachmi Hamdi, his success as a campaigner becomes more interesting than allegations about his ties to Ben Ali. With a preacher’s style of speaking and specific, populist promises such as free health care, it appears that he touched the poorest and most marginalized."
"Many Aridha Chaabia supporters contacted by Tunisia Live over the past twenty-four hours say they voted for Aridha Chaabia simply because party leader Hachmi Hamdi is from Sidi Bouzid. Interior and southern regions of Tunisia were marginalized under Ben Ali [which is why that's where the revolution started], and even the post-Ben Ali political elite is largely coastal. Hachmi Hamdi speaks with a southern accent, and through his TV channel, he spoke directly to those Tunisians who feel they have never been part of the political conversation, before or after January 14th. The democratic process revealed a popular voice that the coastal media never noticed."

And now it all makes sense. To me at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final results up (in fact, these won't be the final results, as the Arihda Chaabia elected MPs have resigned in protest for the invalidation of a few of their lists, which means they'll have to recalculate the result to assign their seats). But anyways, here's what the Assembly looks like :



My left-right ranking is highly debatable, but mostly coherent I hope. I've chosen to rank :
- Parties of socialist inspiration (from PCOT to Ettakatol-FDTL)
- Progressive centrist/center-left parties (from CPR to PDP)
- One-seat parties, independents and the Movement of People, of which I couldn't find anything indicating me what it stands for)
- Centrist/center-right parties tied with the Ben Ali regime (Initiative and Afek Tounès)
- PP, which is populist and Islamist-friendly
- Ennahda

[minionofmidas]

Aridha Chaabia (Popular Petition) lists are disqualified in Tataouine, Sfax I, Jendouba, Kasserine, Sidi Bouzid, and France II.

Probably not a wise move to disqualify the only non En-Nahda list to top a poll anywhere...

Also, will have to hunt for a breakdown who profitted from the redistribution of these 9 seats.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

So in short, any one other party can grant En-Nahda a majority.

[minionofmidas]

En Nahda will want to be careful. Not that they absolutely need to; it's just a but of an established strategy for parliamentary Islamists to not upset the powers that be too much 'til they are capable of winning an outright confrontation. En Nahda will also want to analyze why they didn't get the votes of Aridha Chaabia's voters (the poor inland folk subset).
So, for now, they're playing it by the book: They've nominated a somewhat aparatchik type party bigwig - not the leader - for prime minister and are ready to concede the President's office to the coalition partners - the current interim prime minister and the leaders of Et Takatol and CPR are the names being bandied about. This allows Ghannouchi to remain a sort of shadow president, to take over when/if the time is right to do so peacefully. They'll also not want to give Aridha Chaabia additional legitimacy by governing with them, preferring to strike a deal with the secular left. Including on key constitutional issues - it's not as if their ideas are going to be so far apart anyways.

[minionofmidas]

Order is that of offish website's presentation, roughly geographical. * denotes "some local indy or party you haven't heard about".
Percentage - seats - seats under Ste Lague - seats under D'Hondt - name

Tunis 1 9 seats
45.4 4 6 6 Nahda
13.0 1 2 2 Takatol
  8.3 1 1 1 CPR
  3.4 1 0 0 PDP
  2.8 1 0 0 *
  2.4 1 0 0 PDM

Tunis 2 8 seats (seems that the posh western part of Tunis is mostly outside the close-cut city boundary?)
29.9 3 3 4 Nahda
19.0 2 2 2 Takatol
10.7 1 1 1 CPR
  8.2 1 1 0 PDM
  6.0 1 1 0 PDP

Ariana 8 seats
35.4 3 4 5 Nahda
13.7 1 1 2 Takatol
  8.8 1 1 1 CPR
  6.8 1 1 0 PDP
  4.9 1 1 0 PDM
  3.3 1 0 0 *

Ben Arous 10 seats
41.5 4 6 7 Nahda
12.6 2 2 2 Takatol
10.9 1 1 1 CPR
  4.7 1 1 0 PDP
  2.6 1 0 0 PDM
  2.4 1 0 0 *

Mannouba 7 seats
39.3 3 5 5 Nahda
  9.0 1 1 1 CPR
  7.7 1 1 1 Takatol
  4.3 1 0 0 *
  3.9 1 0 0 Aridha


Nabeul 1 7 seats
30.5 2 4 4 Nahda
12.0 1 1 1 CPR
  9.5 1 1 1 Takatol
  7.6 1 1 1 Aridha
  4.1 1 0 0 Afek Tounes
  3.6 1 0 0 PDP

Nabeul 2 6 seats
28.8 2 3 4 Nahda
13.8 1 1 1 CPR
  7.7 1 1 1 Takatol
  5.5 1 1 0 Aridha
  4.3 1 0 0 PDP

Zaghouan 5 seats
33.4 2 3 4 Nahda
  8.8 1 1 1 Aridha
  5.8 1 1 0 PDP
  4.9 1 0 0 CPR

Bizerte 9 seats
40.0 4 4 7 Nahda
  7.7 1 1 1 CPR
  6.5 1 1 1 Takatol
  5.1 1 1 0 *
  5.1 1 1 0 PDP
  5.0 1 1 0 Aridha

Beja 6 seats
29.6 2 2 4 Nahda
  7.9 1 1 1 Aridha
  7.2 1 1 1 PDP
  6.6 1 1 0 Takatol
  6.6 1 1 0 CPR

Jendouba 8 seats
26.4 3 3 5 Nahda
11.0 1 1 1 Aridha
  6.6 1 1 1 Takatol
  5.1 1 1 1 PDP
  4.5 1 1 0 CPR
  3.8 1 1 0 *

Jendouba 8 seats (one of the six constituencies where Aridha was annulled. Sadly I'm lacking data on two of them.)
29.3 3 4 5 Nahda
  7.3 1 1 1 Takatol
  5.7 1 1 1 PDP
  5.0 1 1 1 CPR
  4.2 1 1 0 *
  3.2 1 0 0 *

El Kef 6 seats
25.7 2 3 4 Nahda
  7.8 1 1 1 Aridha
  6.7 1 1 1 *
  6.0 1 1 0 CPR
  5.0 1 0 0 Takatol

Siliana 6 seats
31.3 2 3 5 Nahda
  8.5 1 1 1 Aridha
  6.1 1 1 0 *
  5.2 1 1 0 PCOT
  4.8 1 0 0 PDP

Sousse 10 seats (Moubadara's vote concentration is utterly hilarious)
35.2 4 4 6 Nahda
21.4 2 3 4 Moubadara
  5.3 1 1 0 CPR
  4.9 1 1 0 Aridha
  4.1 1 1 0 Takatol
  3.1 1 0 0 PDP

Monastir 9 seats
32.0 3 5 6 Nahda
17.5 2 2 3 Moubadara
  4.3 1 1 0 CPR
  3.8 1 1 0 Takatol
  3.3 1 0 0 Aridha
  2.5 1 0 0 *

Mahdia 8 seats
30.2 3 3 5 Nahda
  7.2 1 1 1 Aridha
  6.5 1 1 1 Moubadara
  6.2 1 1 1 CPR
  6.0 1 1 0 Afek Tounes
  4.5 1 0 0 *

Sfax 1 7 seats
43.0 3 5 5 Nahda
  9.3 1 1 1 CPR
  8.3 1 1 1 Aridha
  4.5 1 0 0 Takatol
  3.4 1 0 0 PCOT

Sfax 1 7 seats
46.6 4 5 6 Nahda
10.0 1 1 1 CPR
  4.8 1 1 0 Takatol
  3.7 1 0 0 PCOT

Sfax 2 9 seats
37.4 4 4 6 Nahda
12.8 1 2 2 CPR
  8.5 1 1 1 Aridha
  6.1 1 1 0 *
  6.0 1 1 0 Takatol
  2.4 1 0 0 Afek Tounes

Kairouan 9 seats
41.4 4 6 6 Nahda
17.7 2 2 3 Aridha
  4.4 1 1 0 CPR
  2.2 1 0 0 Takatol
  1.6 1 0 0 PCOT

Kasserine 8 seats I'm missing the Aridha total, and thus true vote total and true party shares, on this one. Although given the degree of scattering, it's possible that Tunisia Live forgot to update the vote total here (offish site only has vote totals for parties that won seats, not overall) and these are actually the real vote shates.

Kasserine 8 seats. Takatol completely disappears from here on.
33.9 3 4 7 Nahda
  6.7 1 1 1 CPR
  4.8 1 1 0 *
  4.6 1 1 0 PDP
  4.2 1 1 0 *
  2.7 1 0 0 Takatol

Sidi Bouzid 8 seats
37.0 3 5 5 Aridha
15.2 2 2 2 Nahda
  9.2 1 1 1 *
  2.8 1 0 0 *
  1.9 1 0 0 *

Sidi Bouzid 8 seats. Yeah, weakness of non-Nahda "national" parties here is astounding.
24.1 2 4 5 Nahda
14.6 2 2 3 *
  4.4 1 1 0 *
  3.0 1 1 0 *
  2.6 1 0 0 CPR
  2.5 1 0 0 *

Gabes 7 seats
51.8 4 5 6 Nahda
  9.7 1 1 1 CPR
  5.2 1 1 0 *
  5.2 1 0 0 Aridha

Medennine 9 seats
47.0 4 6 8 Nahda
  9.7 1 1 1 CPR
  5.6 1 1 0 Afek Tounes
  4.0 1 1 0 Aridha
  3.7 1 0 0 PDP
  2.9 1 0 0 *

Tataouine 4 seats
57.8 3 4 4 Nahda
  5.6 1 0 0 Aridha

Tataouine 4 seats
61.2 3 4 4 Nahda
  4.7 1 0 0 PDP

Gafsa 7 seats
39.6 3 5 6 Nahda
  7.8 1 1 1 CPR
  5.3 1 1 0 Aridha
  3.4 1 0 0 *
  2.6 1 0 0 PDP

Tozeur 4 seats
42.0 2 4 4 Nahda
  5.6 1 0 0 *
  4.9 1 0 0 CPR

Kebili 5 seats
39.4 2 3 3 Nahda
27.3 2 2 2 *
  3.9 1 0 0 Aridha
(Tunisia Live lists the 2nd party as CPR, which confirms with the national totals reported even by the offish site. Maybe they held the first two spots on what was technically a coalition list, or something of that sort.)

France 1 5 seats
33.5 2 2 3 Nahda
12,5 1 1 1 CPR
11,2 1 1 1 Takatol
  8.2 1 1 0 PDM

France 2 5 seats Again, I don't have the Aridha figure and thus correct total

France 2 5 seats
49.9 2 2 4 Nahda
15.1 1 1 1 CPR
12.6 1 1 0 Takatol
  9.7 1 1 0 PDP

Italy 3 seats
49.0 2 2 3 Nahda
11.3 1 1 0 Aridha

Germany 1 seat
42.8 1 1 1 Nahda

Europe & America 2 seats
36.8 1 1 1 Nahda
19.5 1 1 1 CPR

Arab Countries & World 2 seats
45.6 1 2 2 Nahda
14.2 1 0 0 CPR

Seat totals by distribution system. Counting only the official tallies. Ste Lague figure appears to be off by one, can't be bothered to find where the error is.
Nahda 90 / 122 / 156
CPR 30 / 27 / 23 (counting Kebili)
Takatol 21 / 19 / 14
Aridha 19 / 15 / 10
PDP 17 / 9 / 2
PDM 5 / 3 / 0
Moubadara 5 / 6 / 8 (oh the joys of being locally concentrated)
Afek Tounes 4 / 2 / 0
PCOT 3 / 1 / 0
other 23 / 12 / 4

[Hash]

Anybody bothered calculating national percentages?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, thanks God they use strongest remainder...

[minionofmidas]

Anybody bothered calculating national percentages?

If you find some, post em here.

I was slightly surprised to find the three Commies to be coming from the hinterland.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Communism, these days, is a rural thing.

As well, I don't think that En Nahda is something to fear, it is like a Protestant Church, it's leadership is far more moderate than it's rank and file. It's only when the rank and file decide to either topple the leadership, or, strike out on their own, that we need to worry.

[LastVoter]

Urban voters dissapointed me.